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Looks like a last minute north shift on models today... NYC and LI likely dodging the big 4"-7" rains and will just be a standard 1"-3" with most of it overnight tomorrow and over by Thursday morning.

The rain in parts of the boroughs and NNJ are impressively. 6”-10” have fallen. Very impressive.

Was apparent by Friday night that it wasn’t gonna be a high impact storm.

Stop.

I’m more upset at the NHC. They should have dropped all hurricane warnings yesterday morning and all tropical storm warnings west of the east end. They see the same models I see and it was clear from Friday night that this was a nothing storm.

It’s not a hurricane and hasn’t been since last night. It’s a weakening tropical storm. Max winds are 65mph right now and weakening as it heads for landfall in Rhode Island.

What? No. City won’t see any winds. LI 40-50mph winds max on the east end. With maybe a gust to 60. This storm was a bust. But that was clear from Friday. Missed NY and landfall is in RI as a weakening tropical storm.

This verified. We got lucky because 3 days ago this looked like a major issue for LI. Thankfully the models backed off Friday and yesterday. Not sure why the media and nhc kept staying with a hurricane and LI landfall. It was clear that wasn’t happening from Friday night and especially yesterday.

Just some rain now. Winds won’t be an issue. The very east end of LI has some winds. 40-50mph. That’s it.

It’s over. Storm is past Block Island and weakening.

Storm is by Block Island and weak. Barely a tropical storm. It was clear on Friday this storm was not going to be a big LI impact. By yesterday it was almost certain but the media created mass panic. We dodged a bullet. 3 days ago models had a legit category 2 into central LI.

The biggest surge is east of the center. With the southerly winds and the push of water at the same time from the hurricane. Landfall Block Island or east spares LI from the surge.

L Landfall is Hamptons to Rhode Island. The majority of models miss LI now and landfall near Block Island and RI. The only reason why LI is in play is because the Euro has a Hamptons landfall. But it’s on its own and in my experience never pick the outlier model and use the consensus. This...

Sandy was a Category 3 hurricane that phased with an ULL to form a superstorm. It had Category 3 pressure, which caused category 3 storm surge and Category 1 winds. This storm is nowhere near Sandy. Not even close. Sandy was a beast.

Quick update. Models have shifted east the last 24 hours. And weaker. I don’t want to downplay it, but it’s nowhere near as bad as it looked 2-3 days ago. The landfall zone right now is Hamptons to Block Island and east. I would favor Block Island. The biggest threat now is flooding rains...

A set of new hurricane models just came out and they are even further west than this with the tightest cluster into the NYC boroughs.

Hi everyone. Been tracking Henri for a few days. Models the last 2 days are showing a phase with the incoming trough. That means that the system will pull NW into landmass, like Sandy did. That track is the worst because of the trajectory and the push of water on the east side of storm. What...

Great event here in Whitestone, Queens. 10" and still coming down. As of 7:00am: NYC was 10.0" LGA was 9.0" EWR was 11.0'' JFK was 6.2"

OK. So morning models warmed again and bring in sleet. This is such a tough forecast to make for weather men and hobbyists. I am officially lowering my final snow predictions. This is the FINAL update: NYC: 5"-10" (less south shore, more morth Shore)...