The Missing Fish!

The Missing Fish​

198 fish went into the study. 198 fish came out alive.
So where did 9% come from?
In 1996, the Diodati study caught and released 198 striped bass in an artificial pond. Eight weeks later, they drained the pond completely dry. Every single fish they recovered was alive. Not one dead fish. Not one carcass. Not one body.
But 15 to 17 fish were missing. Gone. Vanished.
And the study assumed every single one of them died from catch and release.
Every. Single. One.
Not some of them. Not most of them. All of them.

Why Assume They Died?​

Let's think about this for a moment. A fish goes missing from a pond. What are the possible explanations?

1. It died from being caught and released
2. It escaped through the sluice gates during water exchanges
3. It was taken by a bird (osprey, heron, cormorant)
4. It was poached by someone with access to the pond
5. It lost its tag and was counted among the unhooked fish
6. It died from stress during the 5 hour truck transport before the study even started
7. It died from disease or natural causes unrelated to hooking
8. It decomposed beyond recognition from causes unrelated to catch and release

Eight possible explanations. The study chose one. And applied it to all 15 to 17 missing fish.

The Odds​

Okay, let's let artificial intelligence do some math for us.
For the study's conclusion to be correct, every single missing fish had to die specifically from catch and release. Not one fish could have escaped. Not one fish could have been eaten by a bird. Not one fish could have died from transport stress. Not one.
Even if we generously assume catch and release had a 50% chance of being the cause for each missing fish, the probability that ALL 15 fish died from catch and release would be:
0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5
That's 0.5 to the 15th power.
The odds: 1 in 32,768.
That's a 0.003% chance.
And that's being generous. If we assume catch and release was only one of eight equally likely explanations, the odds drop to 1 in 35 trillion.
Yet the study assumed it happened. And we've been managing the fishery based on that assumption for 30 years.

No Bodies Means They Lived​

Here's the thing about dead fish: they leave evidence.
Dead fish float. Dead fish decompose on the bottom. Dead fish get found when you drain a pond completely dry.
They drained the pond. They found no dead fish from catch and release. Zero.
If anything, the absence of bodies is evidence that those fish didn't die. They escaped. They were taken by predators after surviving release. They swam out through the gates.
The lack of evidence isn't proof of death. It's proof of life.
But the study concluded the opposite. No bodies? They must have died from catch and release. Missing fish? Blame the recreational anglers.

The Convenient Conclusion​

Think about what had to be true for the study's conclusion to hold:

• Every missing fish died from catch and release (not one escaped)
• Every missing fish died from catch and release (not one was taken by a bird)
• Every missing fish died from catch and release (not one died from transport stress)
• Every missing fish died from catch and release (not one lost its tag)
• Every missing fish died from catch and release (not one was poached)
• Every dead fish somehow vanished without leaving a body

The odds of all of that being true? Essentially zero.
Yet that's the assumption that gave us 9%. That's the assumption that has been used to blame recreational anglers for 30 years. That's the assumption that justified slot limits, shortened seasons, and the narrative that we kill more fish than commercial fishermen.

The Real Numbers​

The only confirmed deaths in the Diodati study were 2 fish out of 44 that died within 12 hours of being caught. Researchers watched them die. That's real data.
2 out of 44 = 4.5%
The same number that modern telemetry studies are showing today with over 8,000 fish tracked in real world conditions.
The other 4.5% that got us to 9%? A statistical impossibility. An assumption that defies basic probability. Missing fish blamed on recreational anglers against odds of 1 in 32,768 or worse.

The Real Question​

If the 9% is wrong, and the real number is closer to 4.5%, then we've been chasing the wrong problem for 30 years. Regulations have been built around phantom fish that never died.
Meanwhile, the fishery is still struggling. Seven consecutive spawning failures. A stock that can't seem to recover.
Catch and release isn't the problem. The numbers prove it. The missing fish prove it. The lack of bodies proves it.
So what is the problem? That's the question management should be asking. Because whatever is killing this fishery, it isn't the missing fish.
It's time to stop chasing ghosts and start looking for the real answer.