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Fishing Analysis and Prediction - May 15, 2025
This report analyzes recent fishing reports and weather patterns to provide a prediction for fishing conditions in the Long Island, New York, and surrounding regions for the next few days.
Overall Weather Synopsis and Marine Forecast
Marine Forecast for Thursday, May 15, 2025 (from NOAA/NDBC - FZUS51 KOKX, issued 5:44 AM EDT):
- Synopsis: Low pressure continues to weaken as it approaches today. An associated frontal boundary looks to stay just south of the area through the day and may push through late. Another frontal system impacts the area Friday through Saturday. High pressure will gradually return early next week as low pressure lingers just east of New England. A frontal system may approach during the middle of next week.
- Advisories:
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY: In effect until 11 AM EDT this morning for most coastal waters, including Long Island Sound, South Shore Bays, and offshore zones.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: In effect through this afternoon/until 2 PM EDT for offshore zones (Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point, Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet, Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet).
- Offshore (South Shore - Moriches to Montauk, Fire Island to Moriches, Sandy Hook to Fire Island):
- Today: SE winds 5-10 kt. Seas 4-5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft (S 5 ft at 8 seconds). Areas of fog this morning (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Tonight: S winds around 5 kt. Seas 4-5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft (SE 5 ft at 8 seconds). Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog (Vsby 1-3 nm).
- Long Island Sound (East of CT River Mouth):
- Today: E winds 5-10 kt. Seas 2-3 ft (SE 2 ft at 9 seconds). Areas of fog this morning (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Tonight: SE winds around 5 kt, becoming light/variable. Seas 2-3 ft (SE 2 ft at 8 seconds). Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog (Vsby 1-3 nm).
- Long Island Sound (West of New Haven/Port Jefferson):
- Today: E winds 5-10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Tonight: SE winds around 5 kt, becoming light/variable. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog (Vsby 1-3 nm).
- New York Harbor:
- Today: E winds 5-10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Tonight: SE winds around 5 kt, becoming light/variable. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog (Vsby 1-3 nm).
- South Shore Bays (Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay):
- Today: SE winds 5-10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Tonight: S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog (Vsby 1-3 nm).
General Outlook for the Next Few Days:
- Friday: SW/S winds around 5 kt (increasing to 5-10 kt in some areas). Seas generally 3-5 ft offshore, 1-3 ft in the Sound. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
- Saturday: S winds 5-10 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt. Seas 3-5 ft offshore, 1-2 ft in the Sound. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
- Sunday: W/NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3-5 ft offshore, 1-2 ft in the Sound.
(This section will be further populated after reviewing weather history files.)
Regional Analysis and Predictions
Long Island South Shore
Recent Activity (from The Fisherman - May 15, 2025):
- May fishing is in full swing.
- Inshore bluefin tuna have reportedly joined the party, with reports of giant bluefin.
- (Further details from the "Read More" link would be needed for a complete picture but are not accessible at this time).
Earlier Reports (from The Fisherman - May 8, 2025):
- A significant bluefish invasion was noted, hitting most areas.
Earlier Reports (from The Fisherman - May 1, 2025):
- Porgy season opened on May 1st (11-inch minimum).
Weather & Marine Context (May 15, 2025):
- Offshore (South Shore - Moriches to Montauk, Fire Island to Moriches, Sandy Hook to Fire Island): SE winds 5-10 kt, seas 4-5 ft (occ. 6 ft). Dense fog advisory until 11 AM, Small Craft Advisory through the afternoon. Chance of showers/thunderstorms.
- South Shore Bays (Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay): SE winds 5-10 kt, waves 1 ft or less. Dense fog advisory until 11 AM. Chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Prediction for Next Few Days (Long Island South Shore):
- Bluefin Tuna: The arrival of inshore bluefin is a significant development. Anglers targeting tuna should monitor conditions closely, especially with the Small Craft Advisory today. Friday and Saturday may offer windows if the frontal systems pass favorably, but expect S/SW winds and continued chances of showers/thunderstorms. Sunday with W/NW winds might be a better offshore day if seas calm down.
- Bluefish: The bluefish invasion reported last week likely continues. They should be active in the bays and along the surf. Fog and showers today might impact visibility and comfort, but the fish should still be around. Conditions for bay fishing look manageable over the next few days, though thunderstorms are a possibility.
- Porgies: With the season open, porgies should be a viable target in the bays and nearshore structures. The calmer conditions in the bays are favorable.
- General Outlook: Today (Thursday) will be challenging with fog and potential showers/thunderstorms, especially offshore. Friday and Saturday will see continued unsettled weather with S/SW winds and chances of precipitation. Sunday offers a shift to W/NW winds which could improve conditions, particularly for inshore and bay fishing. Anglers should pay close attention to the marine forecast updates, especially regarding fog and thunderstorm development.
Northern New Jersey (including Raritan Bay, Sandy Hook)
Recent Activity (from The Fisherman - NJ/DE Bay Region - May 15, 2025):
- It is currently "StriperQuest" week, indicating active striped bass fishing tournaments or focused efforts.
- A rainy captains’ meeting was held at Gateway Marina in Highlands on the Raritan Bay, suggesting events are proceeding despite some weather.
**Earlier Reports (from The Fisherman - NJ/DE Bay Region):
- May 8: Reports of more rain than sun since the fluke season reopened (early May).
- May 1: New Jersey's summer flounder (fluke) season officially opened on Sunday, May 4th.
- April 24: Striped bass were part of the saltwater catches in the NJ/DE Bay region.
Forum Buzz (from StripersOnline - New Jersey Fishing - Placeholder, May 15, 2025):
- Threads like "Spring Fling 2025" suggest community events or seasonal fishing pushes.
- Technical discussions like "Connecting braid to leader" are ongoing, typical of active angling communities.
- (Specific, current fishing reports from forum posts are not available due to prior navigation difficulties).
**Weather & Marine Context (May 15, 2025 - Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm - ANZ355):
- Advisories: Dense Fog Advisory (until 11 AM), Small Craft Advisory (until 2 PM).
- Today: SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 4-5 ft (occ. 6 ft). Fog, chance of showers/thunderstorms.
- Tonight: S winds around 5 kt. Seas 3-4 ft (occ. 5 ft). Patchy fog, chance of showers/thunderstorms.
**Prediction for Next Few Days (Northern New Jersey):
- Striped Bass: With StriperQuest underway, striped bass are the primary focus. Activity in Raritan Bay and along the coast near Sandy Hook is expected. The rainy conditions mentioned might have affected water clarity and fish behavior, but dedicated anglers will be out. Today's fog and potential thunderstorms, along with the Small Craft Advisory, will make for challenging conditions, especially for boaters. Friday and Saturday will see continued S/SW winds and chances of showers/thunderstorms, which could keep bass activity intermittent. Sunday’s shift to W/NW winds might improve conditions if seas lay down.
- Fluke (Summer Flounder): The season is open, and anglers will be targeting fluke. The rainy weather reported earlier in May might have impacted early efforts. Bay fishing for fluke might be more viable than ocean-side given the sea conditions today. As conditions improve, fluke fishing should pick up in traditional spots.
- General Outlook: Today (Thursday) is tough due to fog, advisories, and potential storms. Boaters should exercise extreme caution. Shore-based anglers might find some opportunities if there are breaks in the weather. Friday and Saturday remain unsettled. Sunday could offer a better window, but conditions will need to be monitored closely. Water temperatures and clarity will be key factors following recent rains and current weather systems.
Westchester / Western Long Island Sound (including Hudson River influences)
Recent Activity (from The Fisherman - New England Video Fishing Forecast - May 15, 2025):
- Good week for weakfish, with the strongest reports coming from the Connecticut River eastward. This suggests weakfish may also be present in the western and central Sound, though perhaps not in the same numbers.
- Winter flounder activity was also noted as good in the New England region, which could translate to some catches in the Sound.
**Earlier Reports (from The Fisherman - New England Video Fishing Forecast):
- May 8: The striper bite "really came to life" over the past week in New England, with widespread catches. This activity likely extended into the Western Sound and Hudson River areas.
- May 1: Striped bass movement was noted as a bit slower than in previous years but picking up.
- April 24: Striped bass action was improving, with schoolies reported on the Cape and Vineyard, indicating a general northward migration that would affect the Sound.
**Weather & Marine Context (May 15, 2025 - Long Island Sound West of New Haven/Port Jefferson - ANZ331 & East of CT River - ANZ332):
- Advisories: Dense Fog Advisory (until 11 AM).
- Today (Western Sound - ANZ331): E winds 5-10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers/thunderstorms.
- Today (Eastern Sound - ANZ332): E winds 5-10 kt. Seas 2-3 ft. Areas of fog (Vsby <1 nm). Chance of showers/thunderstorms.
- Tonight (Both Sound areas): SE winds around 5 kt (becoming light/variable). Seas 1 ft or less (West), 2-3 ft (East). Patchy fog, slight chance of showers/thunderstorms.
**Prediction for Next Few Days (Westchester / Western Long Island Sound):
- Striped Bass: Following the strong striper bite reported last week in New England, expect continued striped bass activity in the Western Sound and potentially up the Hudson River. Schoolie to medium-sized bass are likely. Today's fog and chance of showers might make for damp conditions, but the light winds in the Western Sound are favorable for smaller boats if visibility allows. The frontal systems on Friday and Saturday will bring S/SW winds and more chances of rain/thunderstorms, which could stir things up. Sunday’s W/NW winds might offer a clearer window.
- Weakfish: Reports of weakfish east of the Connecticut River are encouraging. Anglers in the Western and Central Sound should be on the lookout, especially around river mouths and deeper channels. They can be finicky, so varied approaches might be needed.
- Winter Flounder: Some winter flounder may still be available, particularly in the eastern parts of the Sound, but their season is typically winding down as waters warm.
- Hudson River: Striped bass migrating up the Hudson should still be a primary target. Freshwater runoff from recent rains (if any significant local rain occurred, which isn't detailed in the provided weather history beyond general chances of showers) could influence water clarity and fish location. The general weather patterns affecting the Sound will also impact the lower Hudson.
- General Outlook: Today (Thursday) presents challenges with fog and potential showers, but light winds in the Western Sound are a plus. Friday and Saturday will be unsettled. Sunday could be the best bet for more stable conditions. Anglers should monitor fog density and thunderstorm development closely.
General Striper Migration Update (from On The Water - May 9, 2025)
- Overall Trend: Post-spawn stripers are moving north from Chesapeake and Delaware bays along the Jersey Shore.
- Massachusetts: 30-inch stripers have passed through the Cape Cod Canal and are filling in along the South Shore of Massachusetts.
- Outlook: With the full moon tides early next week (week of May 12th), expect big bass to push north in waves. This general northward movement will influence striper availability in all regions covered by this report (NJ, NY, CT waters).
