Fishing Analysis and Forecast - May 20, 2025
Expert Opening: Understanding Today's Fishing Conditions
The Last Quarter moon phase (48% illumination) we're experiencing today creates a critical transition period for anglers across the Long Island region. This lunar phase, combined with the approaching coastal low pressure system, sets up a complex but predictable fishing scenario that savvy anglers can exploit.During the Last Quarter phase, tidal movements become more moderate compared to the extreme highs and lows of the recent Full Moon period. This moderation in tidal flow creates extended periods of slack water, which typically reduces current velocity in key areas like inlets, harbor mouths, and channel edges. For predatory fish like striped bass and bluefish, these reduced current periods often mean they must work harder and feed more opportunistically rather than simply positioning in strong current breaks.
The approaching easterly weather pattern is particularly significant. As winds shift from northwest to easterly over the next 24-48 hours, we'll see a classic "wind against tide" scenario developing during outgoing tides. This creates choppy surface conditions that disorient baitfish and often triggers feeding frenzies, particularly along windward shorelines where bait gets pushed up against structure.
Water temperatures remain in the critical 54-57°F range across most areas - the prime temperature band for active striped bass feeding and the continued migration of larger specimens from southern waters. This temperature range also supports the ongoing development of local bait populations, with sand eels, bunker, and squid all actively present in the ecosystem.
The combination of these factors - moderate lunar influence, shifting wind patterns, and optimal water temperatures - creates a 48-hour window of excellent fishing opportunity before deteriorating conditions arrive Thursday. Anglers should prioritize fishing the first two hours of outgoing tides, particularly in areas where structure creates current breaks that baitfish and predators will utilize during the changing conditions.
North Shore (Hudson to Long Island Sound)
3-Day Wind and Sea Conditions
- Today: NNW winds 9-12 knots decreasing through the day, seas 1 ft or less. Excellent fishing conditions with light chop.
- Wednesday: Deteriorating conditions with E winds 7-11 knots increasing to 11-15 knots by evening. Rain developing, seas building to 1-2 ft.
- Thursday: Poor conditions with ENE winds 19-20 knots, gusts to 30 kt, steady rain, and seas around 2 ft.
Fishing Analysis
The North Shore is experiencing excellent striped bass action right now, with the Triangle area between Eaton's Neck and buoy 11B holding a substantial body of fish. The most recent reports from Cow Harbor Bait and Tackle indicate that stripers in the 28-36 inch class are hitting consistently during the outgoing tide, with larger specimens (to 42 inches) being taken at night on live eels and large plugs.The recent sand eel hatch reported near buoys 7 and 5 continues to attract feeding fish, making this area particularly productive. Weakfish action inside the Peconic Bays and harbors of Huntington Bay remains strong, with pink and white soft plastics producing consistent catches during the first two hours of the outgoing tide.
What's particularly noteworthy is the winter flounder bite from Huntington to Oyster Bay, with anglers reporting easy limits to 2 pounds. This represents a potential comeback for this once-abundant fishery and is worth targeting during the morning hours with sandworms or clam baits.
The Celtic Quest Fleet in Port Jefferson reported excellent porgy action on Saturday's trip, with many anglers limiting out with fish to 2.5 pounds. They noted that the bite was strongest during the slack tide periods, which aligns perfectly with today's Last Quarter moon phase.
Forecast: The next 24 hours represent prime fishing opportunity before conditions deteriorate. Expect striped bass action to remain strong through Wednesday morning, with fish likely to feed aggressively ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The porgy bite will continue strong in the Port Jefferson area, with the best action during slack tide periods. As winds shift easterly Wednesday afternoon, focus on western shorelines and points where bait will be pushed by the increasing winds.
South Shore (Upper NJ to Shinnecock)
3-Day Wind and Sea Conditions
- Today: NNW winds 9-12 knots decreasing through the day, seas 1 ft or less in the bays, 3-4 ft offshore.
- Wednesday: Deteriorating with E winds 9-13 knots increasing to 14-17 knots by evening, gusts to 26 kt. Rain developing, seas building to 3-5 ft offshore.
- Thursday: Poor conditions with NE winds around 20 knots, gusts to 30 kt, steady rain, and seas building to 7-10 ft offshore.
Fishing Analysis
The South Shore continues to see an influx of large migratory striped bass following the bunker schools. Recent reports from Causeway Bait and Tackle in Wantagh indicate that while bunker pods aren't as numerous as in previous years, they're beginning to consolidate, with trophy bass in the 30-45 pound class being caught on live bunker, Mojos, and flutter spoons.The most significant pattern emerging is the concentration of bluefish throughout the bay systems, from the inlets to the bridges. These fish are predominantly in the 6-10 pound class, with some gator blues to 15 pounds mixed in. They're responding aggressively to poppers and swimming plugs during the outgoing tide.
Fluke fishing in the Great South Bay has been exceptional, with the warming water temperatures drawing more fish into the shallows. The best action has been reported on the outgoing tide over sandy bottom in 8-12 feet of water, with Gulp! baits on white bucktails producing the most consistent results.
The kayak fishing community (NY Angler Forum) reports jumbo bluefish providing surface action, particularly around areas with abundant baitfish. Their reports of topwater action in the early morning hours suggest targeting the first light period for the most explosive strikes.
Forecast: The next 24 hours offer excellent fishing conditions before the approaching storm. Striped bass action will remain strong, with the best opportunities coming during the outgoing tide around inlet areas. As winds shift easterly Wednesday, focus on the western sides of inlets and structures where bait will be pushed. Bluefish action will intensify ahead of the storm, with aggressive feeding likely throughout Wednesday. Fluke fishing will remain productive through Wednesday morning but will likely slow as the storm approaches and water clarity diminishes.
East End (Montauk/North Fork)
3-Day Wind and Sea Conditions
- Today: NW winds 15-20 knots diminishing, seas 3-4 ft.
- Wednesday: E winds 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots, seas building to 4-6 ft.
- Thursday: NE winds 20-25 knots, gusts to 35 kt, seas 7-10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft.
Fishing Analysis
The East End is experiencing excellent fishing across multiple species. Reports from Wego Fishing Bait and Tackle in Southold indicate that the porgy bite remains hot from Middle Grounds to Greenlawns, with limit catches common. Bass fishing continues to be productive at Jessups on the incoming tide, with bucktails and diamond jigs producing consistent results.The most notable development is the arrival of large bluefish, with specimens in the 12-15 pound class being caught throughout the area. These fish are aggressively hitting a wide variety of lures, with surface plugs producing the most exciting action during the morning and evening hours.
The Peconic Star Fleet in Greenport reports that their daily porgy trips are producing excellent results, with many anglers reaching their limits. They've also noted an increase in weakfish catches, particularly during the morning trips.
Forecast: The East End will offer good fishing opportunities today before conditions deteriorate significantly Wednesday into Thursday. The porgy bite will remain strong in protected areas through Wednesday morning. Striped bass action should intensify ahead of the approaching storm, with fish likely to feed aggressively during the tide changes. As winds increase from the east, focus on the western shorelines of Peconic Bay where bait will be concentrated. By Thursday, fishing conditions will be poor throughout the area due to strong winds and heavy seas.
Offshore
3-Day Wind and Sea Conditions
- Today: NW winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 kt, seas 3-5 ft.
- Wednesday: E winds 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots, seas building to 4-6 ft.
- Thursday: NE winds 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 kt, seas 7-10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft.
Fishing Analysis
Offshore fishing has been limited by weather conditions, but reports of inshore bluefin tuna continue to come in from the South Shore of Long Island. These fish are being found surprisingly close to shore, with some reports indicating they're as close as 10-15 miles out. The most productive areas have been along temperature breaks and current edges where bait is concentrated.The approaching weather system will create significant offshore current edges and upwellings as it intensifies, which typically concentrates bait and predators. While fishing conditions will deteriorate rapidly, the period just before the storm often produces exceptional fishing as predators feed aggressively ahead of changing conditions.
Forecast: Today represents the last good opportunity for offshore fishing before conditions deteriorate significantly. Anglers targeting bluefin tuna should focus on areas 10-20 miles offshore where temperature breaks can be located. Trolling with spreader bars and daisy chains has been effective, but when fish are spotted on the surface, casting metal jigs or poppers can produce explosive strikes. By Wednesday afternoon, offshore conditions will become increasingly dangerous, and by Thursday, offshore fishing will be impossible due to the approaching coastal storm.
Overall Regional Outlook
The next 24 hours represent an excellent fishing window before conditions deteriorate significantly with the approaching coastal storm. The Last Quarter moon phase is creating moderate tidal movements that favor extended periods of productive fishing, particularly during the first two hours of the outgoing tide.Striped bass fishing remains excellent throughout the region, with trophy-class fish available along both shores. The most significant pattern to watch is the eastward movement of bunker pods and the associated large striped bass. Anglers should focus on areas where these pods are concentrated, particularly during the outgoing tide.
Bluefish action is intensifying throughout the region, with large specimens providing exciting topwater opportunities. The approaching storm will likely trigger aggressive feeding behavior over the next 24 hours.
The porgy bite remains strong across both shores, with limit catches common. Weakfish action continues to improve in the Peconic Bays and harbors along the North Shore.
Water temperatures are currently in the ideal range for striped bass activity, and the Last Quarter moon phase suggests that fishing will be most productive during the first two hours of the outgoing tide and the last two hours of the incoming tide.
Anglers should take advantage of the good conditions today before the approaching coastal storm makes fishing difficult or impossible by Thursday.
