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  1. ag3

    Weather

    The scary thing with this event is that minor shifts can screw up everything. 50 mile shift east, and NYC and Nassau get very little and Suffolk would get much less. 50 mile shift west and we all get buried, 20". That's how tight this storm is. I dont feel comfortable with the amounts yet but I...
  2. ag3

    Weather

    OK. After more modeling digested, I can narrow it down a bit more: NW of NYC into NWNJ: 3"-6" NYC metro/Nassau County/SWCT: 5"-10" E. Nassau/Suffolk County: 10"-20"+ (more east) If I see a drastic change tonight or tomorrow morning, I will update one more time.
  3. ag3

    Weather

    There are a couple models that are duds but even those give LI a decent 4”-8”. LI is getting snow. Just how much is the question. We still do not have model consensus which is amazing being only 24-30 hours out.
  4. ag3

    Weather

    Models are still not agreeing. So I can’t go with an exact amount. 0”-3”: 12.5% chance 3”-6”: 50% chance 6”-10”: 25% chance 10”-15: 12.5% chance This is all I can go with for now. Maybe tomorrow morning, we’ll have a model consensus.
  5. ag3

    Weather

    Overnight models made a wobble west. Will issue my final snow prediction this afternoon.
  6. ag3

    Weather

    Why is weather so hard to predict? I will tell you why. Today and this afternoon, models have made a drastic shift east and basically miss the area or barely scrape. Giving a forecast today would be a nightmare. Storm is trending towards a miss now but experience tells me to wait until tonight...
  7. ag3

    Weather

    Hi everyone. As I suspected with this post (made Thursday Jan. 20th), the storm is now on all models. It's too early to give snow amounts but the models right now show a potential BLIZZARD for the area with 12"+ of snow. Will update and give totals by Thursday.
  8. ag3

    Weather

    I usually do not hype long range but the setup is incredible. Jan. 28-31 period. A period to watch for a historic snow storm. That is all for now.
  9. ag3

    Weather

    Tomorrow from 7am to 4pm a thin line of moderate snow will hit the area. Will begin as rain for the coast and then change to snow. 1"-3"/2"-4" type of snowfall. The weekend event is a dud. The one model that had it, the Euro, lost it yesterday. At the very worst, it's a light scraper for the...
  10. ag3

    Weather

    Hi. I posted about the fake hype coming for the Monday storm. Monday storm is a rain event for the coast and anyone near the coast. The heavy snow is for the far interior sections of PA, CT and Poughkeepsie and north. Just north and west of NYC could see 1"-3" of snow but then washed away by...
  11. ag3

    Weather

    Amazing storm here. From 3am to 6am was incredible. Storm over performed. 9.0” Whitestone, Queens. LaGuardia Airport was 8.4” at 7:00am
  12. ag3

    Weather

    I believe NYC will be under a warning as well, if the early 0z models continue the snowier trend. Will know by 9pm.
  13. ag3

    Weather

    Hey everyone. Latest guidance is increasing the snow amounts now. My final revision is 4”-8” for everyone. From Eastern PA to CT to all of LI. There can be localized amounts higher as well in banding. Solid snow storm on the way.
  14. ag3

    Weather

  15. ag3

    Weather

    Good call. What I have learned in weather hobbying the past 20 years is to never go gung ho. Always start with the most likely forecast and if it ends up more, you can adjust it during the storm.
  16. ag3

    Weather

    LI will see more than Philly tomorrow. This is a late blooming coastal system. The further east, the more snow. Coastal areas are favored tomorrow for this reason. Coastal areas will catch the heavier bands as the coastal storm takes over and moves NE. Interior will see light snow from the...
  17. ag3

    Weather

    For the future, modeling does have a large snowstorm pattern from Jan. 15-20th time frame. The upper air pattern supports a big time snowstorm. But that does not mean it will occur for our area. You will hear hype for this storm in the next week, but weather is fickle and just because the...
  18. ag3

    Weather

    HI. No real changes to my initial 3"-6" forecast. Just a little more detail. This is my final call for tonight through tomorrow morning. Snow is from 1am to 10am, with the heaviest part 4am until 8am: -Interior (N & W of NYC and Philly) is 1"-3" -NYC immediate metro and boroughs 3"-5" -LI, CNJ...
  19. ag3

    Weather

    Hi everyone. Quick update for Thursday night into Friday. A quick moving miller b system will impact the entire area. Details still need to be sorted out but right now it looks like a 2"-4"/3"-6" type of snowfall. There is a chance for higher amounts but not much because the system is moving...
  20. ag3

    Weather

    Ha. Sorry guys. Busy time with daughter's 3rd birthday party and other things. Today's event is a coastal NJ and Eastern LI event. Perhaps a small amount up to NYC. NYC: Coating to 1" Nassau County: Coating to 2" (the higher amounts in SE Nassau) Suffolk County: 1"-5" (the higher amounts in SE...

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