Maine’s lobster hot spot appears to be having a baby boom
After years of decline, the number of baby lobsters found along a key stretch of Maine’s coast has been above average the past 2 years.
On the rocky ocean floor near Maine’s busiest fishing ports, a tiny sign of hope is taking shape: Scientific surveys show an uptick in the number of baby lobsters, hinting at a possible rebound coming for one of the nation’s most valuable fisheries.
A long-running scientific survey shows the number of young-of-year lobsters found in Maine’s most valuable lobster fishing territory — which includes the state’s top five grossing lobster ports — has been above average for the past two years.
A baby lobster takes about eight to 10 years to reach legal harvest size. That means the young-of-year that diving scientists found hiding under rocks last fall are the same ones that will fill traps, and support coastal fishing families, a decade from now.
“We remain cautiously optimistic that we’ll see some improvement in future landings based on what we’re seeing,” said Jeff Kipp, a senior stock assessment scientist at Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. “We don’t know how long it will last, but it is encouraging.”
The resurgence in baby lobsters off Maine’s central coast, from Friendship to Corea, will not “save the day” for the lobster industry, Kipp said. The young-of-year count is still 44% lower than it was two decades ago, he said, and the warming oceans suggest a long-term downward trend.
But the uptick of the past two years is good news for the $528.4 million-a-year Maine industry, even if it only represents the stabilization of a population in a part of the state that depends on lobstering, said Patrice McCarron, executive director of the Maine Lobstermen’s Association.
Fishermen began reporting a surge in baby lobsters before the surveys documented it, she said. Scientists can only collect so many samples, while Maine lobstermen fish the entire coast every day, so it only makes sense that fishermen would note the rebound first, she said.
“Things are looking up,” McCarron said. “It makes me believe we are in a good space right now. The resource may not be what it once was, but it’s healthy. It’s coming back. They’re seeing a lot of juvenile lobsters in their traps that aren’t legal yet, but they’re not far off.”
Seasoned Maine lobstermen didn’t expect the boom days of a decade ago to last, McCarron said. Many fished hard during the heyday but are now returning to a life where they trap lobster for part of the year and drag for scallops, grow oysters or even drive an oil truck as well.
The reasons behind the baby lobster resurgence are hard to track, said Andrew Goode, a marine researcher at the University of Maine who oversees the state section of the count. Fluctuating temperatures and the availability of baby lobsters’ favorite food probably all play a role, he said.
“In order for an uptick to have a positive impact on the fishery, you need several years of a high settlement rate,” said Goode, a Boothbay native who is also a commercial lobsterman. “We will have to wait to see if this is a rebound or merely a pause in the decline.”
Goode said the Maine lobster industry appears to be at a tipping point, much like it was in 2016, the peak of lobster landings. Its future will likely depend on whether the Gulf of Maine continues to cool after years of rapid warming, or if that temperature relief will be short-lived.
Until then, scientists will continue to follow the lobster survey results closely to see what it can tell them about the size of the next generations of babies, and whether those born in 2023 and 2024 will make it through their juvenile years and reach legal harvest size, Goode said.
Every fall, scientists dive down to the seabed to collect young-of-year lobsters no bigger than a quarter from a coffee-table-sized sample area in more than 100 inshore cobblestone nurseries spread across New England and Atlantic Canada.
Some dive bags will contain no baby lobsters at all, while others may hold many. Scientists average the number of babies found in each area to determine abundance, which they can then use to compare one region to another or one year to the next.
The bright spot in the survey is Statistical Area 512, a powerhouse region including Stonington, Vinalhaven and Beals. While other regions continue to decline, settlement densities in 512 were not only stable but trending well above the five-year average in both 2023 and 2024.
But the lobsters of this mini baby boom, and the industry itself, still face a gauntlet of challenges.
These baby lobsters must evade predators, including larger lobsters; avoid starving to death amid a decline in their favorite zooplankton; and deal with environmental stresses like fluctuating temperatures. Scientists estimate only one in a thousand will survive.
Maine’s lobster industry remains under pressure from fluctuating ocean temperatures, shifting federal regulations designed to protect the endangered right whale, market instability, and rising fuel and bait costs.
The young-of-year count is a kind of crystal ball for the lobster industry, suggesting what the future might hold over the next decade — critical information in Maine, where lobster accounts for nearly 75% of all seafood value and thousands of jobs.
