An Existential Question and a 2 Mulligan Dinner Tonight

[Roccus7]

It's right up there with, "Is it better to have loved and lost than never to have loved." What would be that, well in my limited world, "Is it better to use a surface lure on a very calm day to see every instance of a fish having interest in your lure?" or "Is it better off to use a subsurface lure and fly blind??"

Even though it can be a major source of agita, and makes me want to have a bottle of Brioschi on the boat, I'll opt to use the popper because larger fish have been in 'da hood and their presence can often only be detected by a HUGE V Wake following a topwater, like this AM. I was preparing to go to a new spot when I had multiple massive V wakes. Even with my gastric pH plummeting, I changed up popper color & tail hook combination, going from a standard Blue Flash Striper Strike to a Metallic one with a "Chartreuse Caboose", a Siwash tied with bright green faux bucktail.

Tossed the plug out to an area where I saw some minor surface disturbance and the glassine surface erupted with a major swirl, but no hit. The auto "Mulligan" sequence engaged and after 2 sequences, I was fast onto a beautiful 30" fish...

Fresh Stripah, it's what's for Suppah!!

 

[Chevy1]

Your killing me?
Hopefully I get up there before the bite dies.

 

[george]

I hope that cooler is between 28 - 31 inches ?

 

[captmike28]

It's right up there with, "Is it better to have loved and lost than never to have loved." What would be that, well in my limited world, "Is it better to use a surface lure on a very calm day to see every instance of a fish having interest in your lure?" or "Is it better off to use a subsurface lure and fly blind??"

Even though it can be a major source of agita, and makes me want to have a bottle of Brioschi on the boat, I'll opt to use the popper because larger fish have been in 'da hood and their presence can often only be detected by a HUGE V Wake following a topwater, like this AM. I was preparing to go to a new spot when I had multiple massive V wakes. Even with my gastric pH plummeting, I changed up popper color & tail hook combination, going from a standard Blue Flash Striper Strike to a Metallic one with a "Chartreuse Caboose", a Siwash tied with bright green faux bucktail.

Tossed the plug out to an area where I saw some minor surface disturbance and the glassine surface erupted with a major swirl, but no hit. The auto "Mulligan" sequence engaged and after 2 sequences, I was fast onto a beautiful 30" fish...

Fresh Stripah, it's what's for Suppah!!

View attachment 64392

Learning to love the "Mulligan"!!

 

[Roccus7]

I hope that cooler is between 28 - 31 inches ?

Cooler is like 29", cutting board is reported as 31". I freaked the other day when I put a different fish on it that I measured on board the boat as just less than 31" and it was bigger than the cutting surface!! Turns out the manufacturer measured the entire length of the board including the side trim, which measures 31', not the cutting surface, which is 30.5".

Nice to see that NY has finally succumbed to the inevitable and enacted the reduced the slot. Time for NJ to mans up and joins the rest of the east coast and comply.

Rumor has it that next year ASMFC may be enacting far more Draconian restrictions to protect the Classes of 2015 and 2017, as the past 4 or 5 years spawns' YOY numbers have been miserable, with 2023 is keeping up the abysmal streak. We've had very damp springs the past 6 years, and the rainwater has kept the salinity in the spawning estuaries too low for proper egg development.

As Samuel Jackson cautioned, "Hold onto your butts!!"

 

[george]

Cooler is like 29", cutting board is reported as 31". I freaked the other day when I put a different fish on it that I measured on board the boat as just less than 31" and it was bigger than the cutting surface!! Turns out the manufacturer measured the entire length of the board including the side trim, which measures 31', not the cutting surface, which is 30.5".

Nice to see that NY has finally succumbed to the inevitable and enacted the reduced the slot. Time for NJ to mans up and joins the rest of the east coast and comply.

Rumor has it that next year ASMFC may be enacting far more Draconian restrictions to protect the Classes of 2015 and 2017, as the past 4 or 5 years spawns' YOY numbers have been miserable, with 2023 is keeping up the abysmal streak. We've had very damp springs the past 6 years, and the rainwater has kept the salinity in the spawning estuaries too low for proper egg development.

As Samuel Jackson cautioned, "Hold onto your butts!!"

Now we're throwing in a new variable. Rainwater.

I have yet to see a good yoy actual turn into a good year class. It's the most unscientific science there is. This micro managing is screwing everything up. This fish came back when we eliminated the coms and went to one fish over 36 inches.

I can't speak to Chesapeake spawns, but the Hudson is loaded with spawning fish.

 

[Roccus7]

Now we're throwing in a new variable. Rainwater.

I have yet to see a good yoy actual turn into a good year class. It's the most unscientific science there is. This micro managing is screwing everything up. This fish came back when we eliminated the coms and went to one fish over 36 inches.

I can't speak to Chesapeake spawns, but the Hudson is loaded with spawning fish.

George:

You're treading on some pretty well-documented science. The salinity of the water during the spawn has been discussed in the scientific literature for years. To develop and hatch, striper eggs must bounce along the bottom. I can provide you with multiple publications showing this if you care to read them. The GOOD news here is when the water conditions are perfect, a smaller number of spawning fish can provide an epic Young of Year class. Conversely, a river full of spawning fish could have a very poor spawn if there's been too much rain. Let's see how this year pans out. The meteorological folks have reported a damp spring in the Chesapeake watershed, much the same as the past 3 which have had poor Young Of Year (YOY) classes. Based on this, everyone is predicting a poor spawn. In the fall we'll find out how that shakes out.

The Chesapeake YOY study is done every year and has been going on since the 50s IF my memory is correct. The take X number of seinings in the same spot every year during the fall and count the number of baby stripers. The data have been very good about predicting things "down the line". AAMOF, the year Bobby Rochetta broke the all tackle record, it was well known amongst all the Montauk/Orient Point pin hookers that the year class, whatever it was, was really big and the record would probably fall that year, something that Bobby did.

Personally, I've been "tracking" the 2015 class here too, as it's made up the majority of my catch and I have been watching it grow. I've been averaging 4 or so keepers a year until 2020 when I got 13, all around 28", and a bunch of 27" fish. Last year that number jumped to over 40, most 28 - 29" and a couple of low 30s, and many 27". This year I'm already at 20 fish 28" or better, and a bunch at 31" and a couple of 32" fish returned. If you look at any of the charts that have length/weight/age data, it's clear that these fish are the Class of 2015.

This year, a majority of my fish are hovering around 24", which would mark them as 2017 YOY, another very good year. All data of these data bears out that YOY does predict future fishing.

I know many here are upset with the slot and the narrowing of it. As someone who went through the crash of the 80s and now enjoying some very decent striper fishing, I'm fine with it. Then again, I get to fish every day and how many stripers can someone eat? At this point, I still think ASMFC is doing a decent job. Are they perfect, hell no, but nobody is.

Also, I don't depend on fishing for income, and I'm painfully aware that Charter/Party boat operations are continually bombarded with tough restrictions, and it seems that ASMFC is pretty oblivious to the fact that many folks like to fish to stock the freezer, and restrictions on fluke, BSB, stripers, bluefish, etc. have made things made their lives difficult, and there's another disaster on the horizon, porgies!! As the pool of other fish has dried up, more and more pressure has been put on scup. WTH are these operations going to do when ASMFC stomps down on porgy retention? I truly shudder when I think about it.

 

[george]

I appreciate your educated opinion, but again this is where I doubt the numbers. Many variables have changed over the last half of century. Do you think bait, water quality and climate change play into the YOY. Yet I'm too believe that we can accurately count the success of a spawn? I'm sorry I just don't.

 

[Roccus7]

I appreciate your educated opinion, but again this is where I doubt the numbers. Many variables have changed over the last half of century. Do you think bait, water quality and climate change play into the YOY. Yet I'm too believe that we can accurately count the success of a spawn? I'm sorry I just don't.

Absolutely there are other factors, but if the eggs don't hatch, they don't matter. I'd also submit that salinity is a factor of both water quality and climate change...

And my brain did work, the YOY table did start in the 50s. Here's the "assessment" of last year...

The 2022 young-of-year index is 3.6, which is slightly higher than last year's result, but remains below the long-term average of 11.3. The Atlantic coastal striped bass population has decreased in size, but is still capable of strong reproduction with the right environmental conditions.

 

[george]

I'm sorry my good friend, but when I look at what you've provided I see numbers all over the place. In 2011 there were basically no yoy. Why is that? And what happened to the 2011 class? There should be plenty of those around.

I know we try our best, but just looking at that chart reinforces my doubts.

 

[captmike28]

I think it is critical to be as scientific and real-world data based as possible when trying to estimate and/or even predict what mother nature will do to us in the future.

While it may seem simplistic, the thing you mentioned Roccus that causes me to be highly skeptical of much of this computer-generated data is that the Chesapeake YOY study takes a sampling from the same spot every year! Let's face it, fish do swim, and many things can affect their affinity for one location vs. another from year to year like changes in salinity, temperature, food availability, pH, etc. I sure hope they are using a much wider spread on the data than simply going back to what traditionally has been a key spawning area time and again.

If I were to fish the same exact drops every season, I probably would not have much of a charter business left by now.

 

[Roccus7]

sampling from the same spot every year!

It's multiple spots, not a single one...

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