EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
The offshore fishery continues to defy seasonal expectations as we push into December. Late-season bluefin tuna activity remains strong in the nearshore and midshore zones, with fish ranging from recreational size to 200-pound-class specimens actively feeding on bait concentrations. The mild weather pattern and lingering forage base have extended the season beyond typical timelines, creating exceptional opportunities for anglers willing to venture offshore.
Key highlights include a 107-inch bluefin caught and released off the South Shore, consistent recreational-size fish 14 miles off Sandy Hook, and active feeding behavior observed during afternoon hours. Bigeye tuna continue to provide action in the canyon systems, while the squid run in Montauk waters adds another dimension to the late-season fishery.
BIOLOGIST'S PERSPECTIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS & FISH BEHAVIOR
The current offshore conditions represent a fascinating intersection of environmental factors that are maintaining pelagic fish presence well beyond typical seasonal patterns. Let me break down the biological and oceanographic drivers behind what we're observing.
Sea Surface Temperatures & Thermocline Structure
Water temperatures remain 2-3 degrees above historical averages for early December, with the thermocline maintaining structure in the 50-70 foot range across most offshore zones. This temperature anomaly is critical—it's keeping bait species active and concentrated, which in turn maintains predator presence. The warm water eddy activity from Gulf Stream influence continues to push favorable conditions into our canyon systems.
Bait Concentrations & Forage Dynamics
The extended presence of bunker, squid, and other forage species is the primary driver of continued tuna activity. Typically by this date, we'd see significant bait migration out of our waters, but the mild conditions have slowed this exodus. Bunker pods of varying sizes continue to move through nearshore and midshore zones, creating feeding opportunities that are keeping bluefin engaged.
The squid run in Montauk is particularly noteworthy from a biological perspective. This represents a critical forage opportunity for multiple pelagic species and indicates healthy ecosystem function. Squid concentrations around structure and in current-influenced areas are providing both a fishing opportunity and a key food source for tuna, mahi, and other predators.
Migration Patterns & Seasonal Cycles
Bluefin tuna are exhibiting delayed migration patterns consistent with the warm water conditions. Under typical December conditions, we'd expect the bulk of the bluefin biomass to have moved south and offshore. However, current observations indicate significant numbers of fish are still actively feeding in nearshore zones (14-20 miles) and midshore grounds.
This behavior is driven by three primary factors: (1) abundant forage availability, (2) favorable water temperatures maintaining metabolic activity, and (3) oceanographic conditions (current patterns, water clarity) that are supporting productive feeding zones closer to shore than we'd typically see this late in the season.
Feeding Behavior & Timing Patterns
The afternoon feeding activity observed around 3:00 PM is consistent with bluefin behavioral patterns when working concentrated bait schools. This timing suggests fish are locating and following bait pods throughout the day, with peak feeding activity occurring when bait concentrations are densest and environmental conditions (light levels, current activity) are optimal.
The aggressive surface feeding observed—"bluefin blasting through bait"—indicates high-energy predation on schooling forage. This is classic bluefin feeding behavior when working bunker or similar baitfish, and it creates exceptional opportunities for sight-casting and topwater presentations.
HUDSON CANYON - 38°24'N, 73°24'W
Hudson Canyon continues to serve as a critical offshore habitat, though current activity has shifted more toward the nearshore and midshore zones. The canyon's deep structure and upwelling dynamics maintain its importance as a staging area for pelagic species, but the extended warm water conditions have reduced the concentration of fish in the deep canyon proper.
Bigeye tuna remain the primary target in the deeper canyon zones, with fish responding to traditional deep-dropping and chunking techniques. The canyon edges and upper structure continue to hold potential for bluefin encounters, particularly during dawn and dusk periods when fish move into shallower feeding zones.
Tactical Recommendations - Hudson Canyon:
- Focus on canyon edges and upper structure (100-300 fathoms)
- Deep-dropping for bigeye in 300+ fathom zones
- Dawn and dusk periods for bluefin potential
- Monitor water temperature breaks along canyon walls
- Chunking with butterfish or squid for bigeye
ATLANTIS CANYON - 38°54'N, 72°54'W
Atlantis Canyon maintains its reputation as a productive mid-range canyon system. The structure and bathymetry create natural concentration points for bait and predators, making it a reliable option for anglers targeting multiple species.
Current conditions favor exploration of the upper canyon structure and surrounding grounds. The warm water influence is maintaining bait concentrations in the 50-150 fathom range, which is attracting both bluefin and bigeye activity.
Tactical Recommendations - Atlantis Canyon:
- Target upper canyon structure (50-150 fathoms)
- Troll spreads covering multiple depths
- Live bait opportunities with bunker or mackerel
- Monitor for surface activity during midday hours
- Jig deep edges for bigeye potential
BLOCK CANYON - 39°54'N, 71°30'W
Block Canyon and the surrounding offshore grounds continue to produce consistent action. The proximity to Montauk makes this an accessible option for day trips, and current reports indicate solid tog action "around the Point, Block, and northward," suggesting the area is holding fish across multiple fisheries.
The canyon's structure and current patterns create productive feeding zones, particularly along the edges and upper slopes. The extended season has maintained pelagic activity in this zone longer than typical.
Tactical Recommendations - Block Canyon:
- Explore canyon edges and upper slopes
- Focus on 50-200 fathom range for bluefin potential
- Monitor surface activity for feeding fish
- Jig vertical structure for multiple species
- Consider combination trips targeting both pelagics and bottom species
TOMS CANYON - 39°06'N, 72°30'W
Toms Canyon represents a mid-range option between the southern canyon systems and the northern grounds. The structure and oceanographic conditions create productive habitat, though current activity appears concentrated in other zones based on available intelligence.
The canyon maintains potential for bigeye tuna in deeper zones and bluefin along edges and upper structure. Anglers fishing this area should focus on locating bait concentrations and working temperature breaks.
Tactical Recommendations - Toms Canyon:
- Deep-drop for bigeye in 250+ fathom zones
- Work canyon edges for bluefin potential
- Focus on temperature breaks and current lines
- Chunk with fresh bait for bigeye
- Monitor for whale and bird activity indicating bait
FISHTAILS/BACARDI GROUNDS - MIDSHORE ZONE
The midshore grounds continue to produce exceptional action, representing some of the most accessible and productive fishing currently available. These areas are benefiting significantly from the extended warm water conditions and concentrated bait presence.
Current intelligence indicates active bluefin feeding in the 14-20 mile range, with fish aggressively working bait pods during afternoon hours. This represents outstanding opportunity for smaller boats and day-trip operations.
Tactical Recommendations - Fishtails/Bacardi Grounds:
- Focus on 14-20 mile range from inlets
- Target afternoon hours (2:00-5:00 PM) for peak activity
- Sight-cast to surface-feeding fish
- Topwater presentations highly effective
- Jigs and poppers for aggressive feeders
- Monitor for bird activity and surface disturbances
- Live-line bunker for larger specimens
MONTAUK OFFSHORE GROUNDS - 40°54'N, 71°48'W
The Montauk offshore grounds represent the northern terminus of our coverage area and continue to provide diverse fishing opportunities. The squid run is particularly noteworthy, with strong concentrations providing both a target fishery and a forage base for pelagic predators.
Bluefin activity in this zone includes both nearshore and offshore components, with fish moving between feeding areas based on bait availability and environmental conditions. The extended season has maintained productive fishing longer than typical for this latitude.
Tactical Recommendations - Montauk Offshore Grounds:
- Target squid concentrations for bait and fishing opportunity
- Focus on 10-30 mile range for bluefin potential
- Work structure and current lines
- Chunk with fresh squid for bluefin
- Monitor for surface activity during favorable conditions
- Consider night fishing for squid and opportunistic bluefin
- Jig vertical structure for multiple species
SPECIES-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
Bluefin Tuna - Thunnus thynnus
Current bluefin activity represents exceptional late-season opportunity. Fish ranging from 27-inch recreational size to 200-pound-class specimens are actively feeding, with the size distribution suggesting a mix of age classes present in our waters.
The 107-inch specimen caught and released off the South Shore represents a significant fish—approximately 200-250 pounds based on length-weight relationships. The presence of these larger fish alongside smaller recreational-size specimens indicates a diverse population structure, which is positive from both a fishing and conservation perspective.
Feeding behavior is aggressive and opportunistic, with fish actively working bait pods during daylight hours. The afternoon feeding peak around 3:00 PM is consistent with bluefin behavioral patterns and provides a predictable window for targeting these fish.
Optimal Techniques:
- Sight-casting to surface-feeding fish with poppers and stick baits
- Jigging with butterfly jigs (100-200 gram range)
- Live-lining bunker or mackerel
- Chunking with butterfish, squid, or bunker
- Trolling spreads with cedar plugs and skirted baits
Timing Optimization:
- Afternoon hours (2:00-5:00 PM) for peak surface activity
- Dawn and dusk for edge and structure fishing
- Monitor throughout day for opportunistic feeding
Bigeye Tuna - Thunnus obesus
Bigeye tuna continue to provide action in the deeper canyon zones, representing a reliable target for anglers willing to work the deep structure. These fish are responding to traditional deep-dropping and chunking techniques, with fresh bait producing best results.
Optimal Techniques:
- Deep-dropping with electric reels (300+ fathoms)
- Chunking with butterfish or squid
- Fresh bait outperforming frozen
- Target canyon walls and deep structure
Squid - Loligo pealeii
The Montauk squid run represents both a target fishery and a critical forage component. Strong concentrations are providing fishing opportunity while also supporting pelagic predator activity. This is a key indicator of healthy ecosystem function and provides both recreational opportunity and bait for offshore fishing.
72-HOUR OCEANOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK
The forecast period shows continued favorable conditions with mild weather patterns maintaining through the week. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain stable, with no significant cold water intrusion forecast. This should maintain current fishing patterns through at least mid-week.
Wind conditions favor offshore operations through Tuesday, with building seas Wednesday into Thursday potentially limiting access to offshore grounds. Plan trips accordingly, with Monday and Tuesday offering optimal conditions.
The extended warm water pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-December, suggesting continued late-season fishing opportunity. However, anglers should remain aware that rapid changes can occur this time of year, and conditions can shift quickly.
FINAL TACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Multi-Species Strategy:
Focus efforts on the midshore grounds (14-20 miles) for most accessible and productive bluefin action. Target afternoon hours for peak surface activity. Maintain flexibility to adjust based on observed conditions and fish behavior.
Bait and Lure Selection:
- Topwater: Poppers and stick baits (6-10 inch range)
- Jigs: Butterfly jigs (100-200 grams) and vertical jigs
- Live bait: Bunker, mackerel, squid
- Chunk bait: Butterfish, squid, bunker
- Trolling: Cedar plugs, skirted baits, spreader bars
Technology and Fish-Finding:
Monitor surface activity constantly—birds, bait, and breaking fish are your primary indicators. Use electronics to locate bait concentrations and temperature breaks, but don't ignore visual cues. The most productive fishing right now is sight-based, with fish actively feeding on the surface.
Timing Optimization:
Prioritize afternoon hours (2:00-5:00 PM) for peak bluefin activity. Dawn and dusk remain productive for edge and structure fishing. The extended daylight and favorable conditions allow for full-day operations with multiple feeding windows.
JACK'S FINAL ANALYSIS
From a fisheries biology perspective, what we're observing represents a fascinating case study in how environmental conditions drive fish behavior and distribution. The extended warm water pattern, abundant forage, and favorable oceanographic conditions have created a late-season fishery that defies typical patterns.
This is exceptional fishing for early December, and anglers should capitalize on these opportunities while they last. The biological drivers supporting current conditions—water temperature, bait availability, migration timing—can shift rapidly this time of year. When they do, the fishery will change accordingly.
Get offshore while conditions remain favorable. The fish are there, the patterns are established, and the opportunity is real. This is the kind of late-season fishing we'll be talking about for years.
Tight lines and following seas,
Captain Jack
Fisheries Biologist & Offshore Specialist
The offshore fishery continues to defy seasonal expectations as we push into December. Late-season bluefin tuna activity remains strong in the nearshore and midshore zones, with fish ranging from recreational size to 200-pound-class specimens actively feeding on bait concentrations. The mild weather pattern and lingering forage base have extended the season beyond typical timelines, creating exceptional opportunities for anglers willing to venture offshore.
Key highlights include a 107-inch bluefin caught and released off the South Shore, consistent recreational-size fish 14 miles off Sandy Hook, and active feeding behavior observed during afternoon hours. Bigeye tuna continue to provide action in the canyon systems, while the squid run in Montauk waters adds another dimension to the late-season fishery.
BIOLOGIST'S PERSPECTIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS & FISH BEHAVIOR
The current offshore conditions represent a fascinating intersection of environmental factors that are maintaining pelagic fish presence well beyond typical seasonal patterns. Let me break down the biological and oceanographic drivers behind what we're observing.
Sea Surface Temperatures & Thermocline Structure
Water temperatures remain 2-3 degrees above historical averages for early December, with the thermocline maintaining structure in the 50-70 foot range across most offshore zones. This temperature anomaly is critical—it's keeping bait species active and concentrated, which in turn maintains predator presence. The warm water eddy activity from Gulf Stream influence continues to push favorable conditions into our canyon systems.
Bait Concentrations & Forage Dynamics
The extended presence of bunker, squid, and other forage species is the primary driver of continued tuna activity. Typically by this date, we'd see significant bait migration out of our waters, but the mild conditions have slowed this exodus. Bunker pods of varying sizes continue to move through nearshore and midshore zones, creating feeding opportunities that are keeping bluefin engaged.
The squid run in Montauk is particularly noteworthy from a biological perspective. This represents a critical forage opportunity for multiple pelagic species and indicates healthy ecosystem function. Squid concentrations around structure and in current-influenced areas are providing both a fishing opportunity and a key food source for tuna, mahi, and other predators.
Migration Patterns & Seasonal Cycles
Bluefin tuna are exhibiting delayed migration patterns consistent with the warm water conditions. Under typical December conditions, we'd expect the bulk of the bluefin biomass to have moved south and offshore. However, current observations indicate significant numbers of fish are still actively feeding in nearshore zones (14-20 miles) and midshore grounds.
This behavior is driven by three primary factors: (1) abundant forage availability, (2) favorable water temperatures maintaining metabolic activity, and (3) oceanographic conditions (current patterns, water clarity) that are supporting productive feeding zones closer to shore than we'd typically see this late in the season.
Feeding Behavior & Timing Patterns
The afternoon feeding activity observed around 3:00 PM is consistent with bluefin behavioral patterns when working concentrated bait schools. This timing suggests fish are locating and following bait pods throughout the day, with peak feeding activity occurring when bait concentrations are densest and environmental conditions (light levels, current activity) are optimal.
The aggressive surface feeding observed—"bluefin blasting through bait"—indicates high-energy predation on schooling forage. This is classic bluefin feeding behavior when working bunker or similar baitfish, and it creates exceptional opportunities for sight-casting and topwater presentations.
HUDSON CANYON - 38°24'N, 73°24'WHudson Canyon continues to serve as a critical offshore habitat, though current activity has shifted more toward the nearshore and midshore zones. The canyon's deep structure and upwelling dynamics maintain its importance as a staging area for pelagic species, but the extended warm water conditions have reduced the concentration of fish in the deep canyon proper.
Bigeye tuna remain the primary target in the deeper canyon zones, with fish responding to traditional deep-dropping and chunking techniques. The canyon edges and upper structure continue to hold potential for bluefin encounters, particularly during dawn and dusk periods when fish move into shallower feeding zones.
Tactical Recommendations - Hudson Canyon:
- Focus on canyon edges and upper structure (100-300 fathoms)
- Deep-dropping for bigeye in 300+ fathom zones
- Dawn and dusk periods for bluefin potential
- Monitor water temperature breaks along canyon walls
- Chunking with butterfish or squid for bigeye
ATLANTIS CANYON - 38°54'N, 72°54'WAtlantis Canyon maintains its reputation as a productive mid-range canyon system. The structure and bathymetry create natural concentration points for bait and predators, making it a reliable option for anglers targeting multiple species.
Current conditions favor exploration of the upper canyon structure and surrounding grounds. The warm water influence is maintaining bait concentrations in the 50-150 fathom range, which is attracting both bluefin and bigeye activity.
Tactical Recommendations - Atlantis Canyon:
- Target upper canyon structure (50-150 fathoms)
- Troll spreads covering multiple depths
- Live bait opportunities with bunker or mackerel
- Monitor for surface activity during midday hours
- Jig deep edges for bigeye potential
BLOCK CANYON - 39°54'N, 71°30'WBlock Canyon and the surrounding offshore grounds continue to produce consistent action. The proximity to Montauk makes this an accessible option for day trips, and current reports indicate solid tog action "around the Point, Block, and northward," suggesting the area is holding fish across multiple fisheries.
The canyon's structure and current patterns create productive feeding zones, particularly along the edges and upper slopes. The extended season has maintained pelagic activity in this zone longer than typical.
Tactical Recommendations - Block Canyon:
- Explore canyon edges and upper slopes
- Focus on 50-200 fathom range for bluefin potential
- Monitor surface activity for feeding fish
- Jig vertical structure for multiple species
- Consider combination trips targeting both pelagics and bottom species
TOMS CANYON - 39°06'N, 72°30'WToms Canyon represents a mid-range option between the southern canyon systems and the northern grounds. The structure and oceanographic conditions create productive habitat, though current activity appears concentrated in other zones based on available intelligence.
The canyon maintains potential for bigeye tuna in deeper zones and bluefin along edges and upper structure. Anglers fishing this area should focus on locating bait concentrations and working temperature breaks.
Tactical Recommendations - Toms Canyon:
- Deep-drop for bigeye in 250+ fathom zones
- Work canyon edges for bluefin potential
- Focus on temperature breaks and current lines
- Chunk with fresh bait for bigeye
- Monitor for whale and bird activity indicating bait
FISHTAILS/BACARDI GROUNDS - MIDSHORE ZONEThe midshore grounds continue to produce exceptional action, representing some of the most accessible and productive fishing currently available. These areas are benefiting significantly from the extended warm water conditions and concentrated bait presence.
Current intelligence indicates active bluefin feeding in the 14-20 mile range, with fish aggressively working bait pods during afternoon hours. This represents outstanding opportunity for smaller boats and day-trip operations.
Tactical Recommendations - Fishtails/Bacardi Grounds:
- Focus on 14-20 mile range from inlets
- Target afternoon hours (2:00-5:00 PM) for peak activity
- Sight-cast to surface-feeding fish
- Topwater presentations highly effective
- Jigs and poppers for aggressive feeders
- Monitor for bird activity and surface disturbances
- Live-line bunker for larger specimens
MONTAUK OFFSHORE GROUNDS - 40°54'N, 71°48'WThe Montauk offshore grounds represent the northern terminus of our coverage area and continue to provide diverse fishing opportunities. The squid run is particularly noteworthy, with strong concentrations providing both a target fishery and a forage base for pelagic predators.
Bluefin activity in this zone includes both nearshore and offshore components, with fish moving between feeding areas based on bait availability and environmental conditions. The extended season has maintained productive fishing longer than typical for this latitude.
Tactical Recommendations - Montauk Offshore Grounds:
- Target squid concentrations for bait and fishing opportunity
- Focus on 10-30 mile range for bluefin potential
- Work structure and current lines
- Chunk with fresh squid for bluefin
- Monitor for surface activity during favorable conditions
- Consider night fishing for squid and opportunistic bluefin
- Jig vertical structure for multiple species
SPECIES-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
Bluefin Tuna - Thunnus thynnus
Current bluefin activity represents exceptional late-season opportunity. Fish ranging from 27-inch recreational size to 200-pound-class specimens are actively feeding, with the size distribution suggesting a mix of age classes present in our waters.
The 107-inch specimen caught and released off the South Shore represents a significant fish—approximately 200-250 pounds based on length-weight relationships. The presence of these larger fish alongside smaller recreational-size specimens indicates a diverse population structure, which is positive from both a fishing and conservation perspective.
Feeding behavior is aggressive and opportunistic, with fish actively working bait pods during daylight hours. The afternoon feeding peak around 3:00 PM is consistent with bluefin behavioral patterns and provides a predictable window for targeting these fish.
Optimal Techniques:
- Sight-casting to surface-feeding fish with poppers and stick baits
- Jigging with butterfly jigs (100-200 gram range)
- Live-lining bunker or mackerel
- Chunking with butterfish, squid, or bunker
- Trolling spreads with cedar plugs and skirted baits
Timing Optimization:
- Afternoon hours (2:00-5:00 PM) for peak surface activity
- Dawn and dusk for edge and structure fishing
- Monitor throughout day for opportunistic feeding
Bigeye Tuna - Thunnus obesus
Bigeye tuna continue to provide action in the deeper canyon zones, representing a reliable target for anglers willing to work the deep structure. These fish are responding to traditional deep-dropping and chunking techniques, with fresh bait producing best results.
Optimal Techniques:
- Deep-dropping with electric reels (300+ fathoms)
- Chunking with butterfish or squid
- Fresh bait outperforming frozen
- Target canyon walls and deep structure
Squid - Loligo pealeii
The Montauk squid run represents both a target fishery and a critical forage component. Strong concentrations are providing fishing opportunity while also supporting pelagic predator activity. This is a key indicator of healthy ecosystem function and provides both recreational opportunity and bait for offshore fishing.
72-HOUR OCEANOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK
The forecast period shows continued favorable conditions with mild weather patterns maintaining through the week. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain stable, with no significant cold water intrusion forecast. This should maintain current fishing patterns through at least mid-week.
Wind conditions favor offshore operations through Tuesday, with building seas Wednesday into Thursday potentially limiting access to offshore grounds. Plan trips accordingly, with Monday and Tuesday offering optimal conditions.
The extended warm water pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-December, suggesting continued late-season fishing opportunity. However, anglers should remain aware that rapid changes can occur this time of year, and conditions can shift quickly.
FINAL TACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Multi-Species Strategy:
Focus efforts on the midshore grounds (14-20 miles) for most accessible and productive bluefin action. Target afternoon hours for peak surface activity. Maintain flexibility to adjust based on observed conditions and fish behavior.
Bait and Lure Selection:
- Topwater: Poppers and stick baits (6-10 inch range)
- Jigs: Butterfly jigs (100-200 grams) and vertical jigs
- Live bait: Bunker, mackerel, squid
- Chunk bait: Butterfish, squid, bunker
- Trolling: Cedar plugs, skirted baits, spreader bars
Technology and Fish-Finding:
Monitor surface activity constantly—birds, bait, and breaking fish are your primary indicators. Use electronics to locate bait concentrations and temperature breaks, but don't ignore visual cues. The most productive fishing right now is sight-based, with fish actively feeding on the surface.
Timing Optimization:
Prioritize afternoon hours (2:00-5:00 PM) for peak bluefin activity. Dawn and dusk remain productive for edge and structure fishing. The extended daylight and favorable conditions allow for full-day operations with multiple feeding windows.
JACK'S FINAL ANALYSIS
From a fisheries biology perspective, what we're observing represents a fascinating case study in how environmental conditions drive fish behavior and distribution. The extended warm water pattern, abundant forage, and favorable oceanographic conditions have created a late-season fishery that defies typical patterns.
This is exceptional fishing for early December, and anglers should capitalize on these opportunities while they last. The biological drivers supporting current conditions—water temperature, bait availability, migration timing—can shift rapidly this time of year. When they do, the fishery will change accordingly.
Get offshore while conditions remain favorable. The fish are there, the patterns are established, and the opportunity is real. This is the kind of late-season fishing we'll be talking about for years.
Tight lines and following seas,
Captain Jack
Fisheries Biologist & Offshore Specialist
