The COVID-19 Science and Medicine Question Thread

Roccus7 said:
Interesting models, although I'm extremely confused why only 49% of us regularly wear masks when it's so easy and the best tool we have at this point. Please proclaim that you care about your neighbors and wear a mask, instead of showing that you're so self-absorbed that caring about anyone else is a foreign concept.

New forecasts show why masks are the easiest — and cheapest — way to save U.S. lives​

pressherald.com/2020/10/23/new-forecasts-show-why-masks-are-the-easiest-and-cheapest-way-to-save-u-s-lives/

By Deborah Netburn
Los Angeles Times October 23, 2020

If Americans would stop complaining about face masks and wear them when they leave their homes, they could save well over 100,000 lives — and perhaps more than half a million — through the end of February, according to a study published Friday in Nature Medicine.

The researchers considered five scenarios for how the COVID-19 pandemic could play out with different levels of mask-wearing and rules about staying home and social distancing. All the scenarios assumed that no vaccine was available, nor any medicines capable of curing the disease.

Consistently, the most effective — not to mention cheapest and easiest — way to reduce deaths was to increase the number of people wearing masks.

As of Sept. 21, only 49% of Americans said they “always” wore a mask in public, according to the study. If U.S. residents do not mask up in increasing numbers, they risk another round of mandatory social distancing measures that could shut businesses and schools around the country, the authors said.

“The potential life-saving benefit of increasing mask use in the coming fall and winter cannot be overstated,” wrote the team from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The forecasts also suggest that if states continue to ease their social distancing mandates and other restrictions despite the recent rise in COVID-19 cases, there could be more than 1 million deaths in the U.S. by the end of February.

As with any modeling study, the five scenarios presented below should be considered a guide, rather than a definitive road map, the researchers emphasized.

“We are not forecasting the future, but rather a range of outcomes we believe are most probable given the scenarios tested and based on the data so far, ” they wrote.

Scenario 1: States continue to remove social distancing measures
AKA: The Do-Nothing Scenario

This is the worst-case scenario among the five the researchers considered. According to their models, this would result in a total of 1,053,206 Americans losing their lives to COVID-19 by Feb. 28 and more than 152 million infections across the country.

That death toll would not be felt equally everywhere, the researchers found. Instead, approximately one-third of the projected losses would occur in just three states. California would be hit hardest, with an estimated 146,501 deaths between Sept. 22 and Feb. 28. Florida would be next, with 66,493 deaths during that period, and Pennsylvania could expect 62,352 deaths.

The team also determined that if the U.S. follows this path, by election day, five states would experience a COVID-19 mortality rate of at least 8 deaths per 1 million each day. (That’s about how bad things were when most states shut down their economies and issued stay-at-home orders in the spring.) Another 35 states would exceed that threshold by Feb. 28.

Scenario 2: States shut down again after reaching 8 deaths per 1 million people per day
AKA: The Bare Minimum Scenario

This response is a significant improvement on the scenario presented above.

If states shut down social interactions and economic activity at this threshold, the result would be an estimated 511,468 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 28, the researchers found. That’s 541,738 fewer deaths than if states continue to remove social distancing measures indiscriminately.

Putting restrictions back in place would also reduce infections by nearly 81 million nationwide, according to the forecast. The state with the highest infection rate would be Arizona (46.2%), followed by New Jersey (41.1%) and Louisiana (33.3%).

The researchers consider this the most plausible scenario since this is how states reacted just a few months ago.

Scenario 3: Universal mask use in public plus states shut down after reaching 8 daily deaths per million
AKA: The Ideal Scenario

If you start with the situation in Scenario 2 and improve it by having 95% of the people in each state wear masks outside their homes instead of the current 49%, the estimated COVID-19 total death toll would reach 381,798 by Feb. 28.

That’s 671,408 fewer deaths than if we keep doing exactly what we’re doing (or not doing) now. It’s also 129,670 fewer deaths than the shutdown scenario without universal mask use.

In addition, if everyone wore masks, only nine states — California, Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island — would see their daily death rate rise high enough for more restrictive social distancing and shutdown measures to kick in, according to the model. The rest would be spared.

This strategy would also result in about 17.4 million fewer infections than if states reinstate social distancing and shutdown measures but don’t improve mask use.
However, that this is the best of the five scenarios should be sobering. The United States has already lost more than 220,000 lives to COVID-19. Another 160,000 deaths over the next four months feels like way too many.

Scenario 4: 85% mask use in public plus states shut down after reaching 8 daily deaths per million
AKA: The Still-Pretty-Good Scenario

Mask wearing has become deeply politicized since the start of the pandemic, and it may feel unrealistic to expect 95% of Americans to cover their noses and mouths whenever they are in public. (Although it is worth noting that the people of Singapore were able to achieve this feat, as were residents of certain neighborhoods in New York City.)

To that end, the authors ran another scenario through their computer models. This one was very similar to the scenario described above, except that instead of 95% of the population wearing masks outside the home, just 85% did.

In this case, the researchers found that there would be 415,654 COVID-19 deaths through the end of February. That’s still about 96,000 fewer deaths than in Scenario 2, but 33,856 more deaths than in Scenario 3.

The authors said they were not surprised to learn that having even 85% of the population wear masks would make such a difference, but added that the modeling “does help to confirm that any additional coverage that can be achieved through mask use will save lives.”

Scenario 5: Universal mask use, social distancing measures removed
AKA: The “If Nothing Else, Mask Up” Scenario

Even if states do nothing in the face of rising COVID-19 case counts, nearly 563,000 American lives could be saved by increasing the percentage of people wearing masks in public from 49% to 95%, according to the model.

That’s also nearly 21,000 more lives saved compared to states shutting down again at the 8 daily deaths per million threshold but not implementing rules on wearing masks.

These figures underscore the potential upside of wearing masks, the authors said.

“It is likely that U.S. residents will need to choose between higher levels of mask use or risk the frequent redeployment of more stringent and economically damaging SDMs,” or social distancing measures, they wrote. If neither of those options is appealing, they added, the alternative is to “face a reality of a rising death toll.”

View attachment 26210
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lol
 
I have no issues with vaccines For things like measels, mumps abd rubella
Polio ect as they work

will I be getting a covid vaccine just after I get a flu shot which will happen just after hell freezes over
Simply because you can’t now and won’t be Abel to next year with a reasonable chance of prevention

let me know when it’s 85 percent effective
I’ll think about it then
 
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Sad news...

The Latest: Eli Lilly antibody drug fails in a COVID-19 study, but other testing goes on​

pressherald.com/2020/10/26/the-latest-spike-in-virus-cases-overwhelms-texas-hospitals/

news service reports October 26, 2020

U.S. government officials are putting an early end to a study testing an Eli Lilly antibody drug for people hospitalized with COVID-19 because it doesn’t seem to be helping them.

Independent monitors had paused enrollment in the study two weeks ago because of a possible safety issue. But on Monday, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which sponsors the study, said a closer look did not verify a safety problem but found a low chance that the drug would prove helpful for hospitalized patients.

It is a setback for one of the most promising treatment approaches for COVID-19. President Trump received a similar experimental, two-antibody drug from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. on an emergency basis when he was sickened with the coronavirus earlier this month.

In a statement Lilly notes that the government is continuing a separate study testing the antibody drug in mild to moderately ill patients, to try to prevent hospitalization and severe illness. The company also is continuing its own studies testing the drug, which is being developed with the Canadian company AbCellera.

Antibodies are proteins the body makes when an infection occurs; they attach to a virus and help it be eliminated. The experimental drugs are concentrated versions of one or two specific antibodies that worked best against the coronavirus in lab and animal tests.

Lilly and Regeneron have asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to grant emergency use authorization for their drugs for COVID-19 while late-stage studies continue. Lilly says its request is based on other results suggesting the drug helps patients who are not hospitalized, and that it will continue to seek the FDA’s permission for emergency use.
 
Early in the Pandemic one physician was quoted as saying "This pandemic is like taking a person into the cockpit of a flying plane, sitting them down at the controls and telling them to go ahead and fly. We're literally learning on the fly." Looks like we've been learning quite well and in spite of the current steep rise in the number of cases, which should NOT be downplayed, we're getting better at intervening, thereby lowering the death rate.

Covid-19 death rates have fallen as understanding of the disease improved, researchers say.​



merlin_175067661_c906304c-631e-4696-9b34-1b533a017d3f-articleLarge.jpg


Health care workers performed C.P.R. on a Covid-19 patient at a hospital in Houston this summer.Credit...Callaghan O'Hare/Reuters

In April, the coronavirus killed more than 10,000 people in New York City. By early May, nearly 50,000 nursing home residents and their caregivers across the United States had died.

But as the virus continued its rampage over the summer and fall, infecting nearly 8.5 million Americans, survival rates, even for seriously ill patients, appeared to be improving. At a New York hospital system where 30 percent of coronavirus patients died in March, the death rate had dropped to 3 percent by the end of June.

Doctors in England observed a similar trend. “In late March, four in 10 people in intensive care were dying.” said John M. Dennis, a University of Exeter Medical School researcher. “By the end of June, survival was over 80 percent.”

Though the virus has been changing slowly as it spreads, most scientists say there is no solid evidence that it has become either less virulent or more virulent.

As older people took greater precautions to avoid infection, however, more of the hospitalized patients were younger adults, who are generally healthier and more resilient. By the end of August, the average patient was under 40.

Were the lower death rates simply a function of the demographic changes, or a reflection of advances in treatment that blunted the impact of the new pathogen?

Researchers at NYU Langone Health zeroed in on this question, analyzing the outcomes of more than 5,000 patients hospitalized at the system’s three hospitals from March through August. They concluded the improvement was real, not just the result of a younger patient pool.

Even when they controlled for differences in the patients’ age, sex, race, underlying health problems and severity of Covid symptoms — like blood-oxygen levels at admission — they found that death rates had dropped significantly, to 7.6 percent in August from 25.6 percent in March.

A combination of factors contributed to the improved outcomes of hospital patients, experts said. As clinicians gained more experience with the disease, they became better able to manage it, incorporating the use of steroid drugs and non-drug interventions.

Researchers have also credited heightened community awareness. Patients are seeking care earlier in the course of their illness. And outcomes may also have improved as the load on hospitals lightened and there was less pressure on the medical staff.

“We don’t have a magic bullet cure, but we have a lot, a lot of little things, that add up,” said Dr. Leora Horwitz, director of NYU Langone’s Center for Healthcare Innovation & Delivery Science. “We understand better when people need to be on ventilators and when they don’t, and what complications to watch for, like blood clots and kidney failure.”

Once doctors became aware of the clotting risk, they began to quickly put patients on blood thinners when necessary.

Another problem in the spring was that as hospitals in hard-hit areas like New York City became overwhelmed, doctors who hadn’t worked in critical care for many years were being drafted to care for seriously ill patients. Nursing departments, meanwhile, were short-staffed, and equipment was in short supply.

Medical experts worry that the surges in cases around the country could roll back the improvements in mortality rates. The number of hospitalized Covid patients has increased by 40 percent over the last month, and more than 41,000 patients are now hospitalized in the United States.

— Roni Caryn Rabin, NYT
 
TonySmjc said:
I have no issues with vaccines For things like measels, mumps abd rubella
Polio ect as they work

will I be getting a covid vaccine just after I get a flu shot which will happen just after hell freezes over
Simply because you can’t now and won’t be Abel to next year with a reasonable chance of prevention

let me know when it’s 85 percent effective
I’ll think about it then
Click to expand...
how about 90 percent
big news...market futures going crazy

Pfizer, BioNTech say late-stage trial data shows Covid vaccine is more than 90% effective in preventing infection​

PUBLISHED MON, NOV 9 20206:45 AM EST

Pfizer, BioNTech say late-stage trial data shows Covid vaccine is more than 90% effective in preventing infection
 
movetheboat said:
how about 90 percent
big news...market futures going crazy

Pfizer, BioNTech say late-stage trial data shows Covid vaccine is more than 90% effective in preventing infection​

PUBLISHED MON, NOV 9 20206:45 AM EST

Pfizer, BioNTech say late-stage trial data shows Covid vaccine is more than 90% effective in preventing infection
Click to expand...

Yup, just get back my morning constitutional and caught this on the news. Great news. This is a 2-dose, RNA vaccine. Let me expand...

The vaccine works by making a recipient's body produce the COVID "Spike" protein, the protein that the intact virus uses to make contact with host cells as the first step of cellular invasion. As soon as someone starts making this "foreign" body, their immune systems recognizes this "invader" and begins to build an immune response and making natural antibodies to fight off COVID-19 infections. It's a 2-dose vaccine and takes 28 days to produce a complete response that's > 90% infection.

OK, for folks that want more details. This vaccine needs -90°C storage so that means special handling. Pfizer has made special storage boxes that can keep the vaccine frozen for 10 days, boxes that hold 1000 or so doses. There are greater than 50 million doses ready to go, BUT there is still another month or so before we have all the safety studies completed for an FDA Emergency Use Authorization declaration.

On the biological level, the vaccine is a suspension of lipid nanoparticles containing Messenger RNA molecules that instructs a cell's protein manufacturing processes to make the Spike protein. This is a relatively new mechanism of vaccine production which doesn't use any viruses, native or manufactured, virally-manufactured proteins or inactivated COVID-19 virus. The mRNA in the vaccine is synthesized from raw nucleic acid chemicals. The nanoparticles lipid composition is such that they are easily and quickly ingested by cells so the production of the Spike protein can begin.

That's all I can get for now, will update as more data appears.
 
Roccus7 said:
Yup, just get back my morning constitutional and caught this on the news. Great news. This is a 2-dose, RNA vaccine. Let me expand...

The vaccine works by making a recipient's body produce the COVID "Spike" protein, the protein that the intact virus uses to make contact with host cells as the first step of cellular invasion. As soon as someone starts making this "foreign" body, their immune systems recognizes this "invader" and begins to build an immune response and making natural antibodies to fight off COVID-19 infections. It's a 2-dose vaccine and takes 28 days to produce a complete response that's > 90% infection.

OK, for folks that want more details. This vaccine needs -90°C storage so that means special handling. Pfizer has made special storage boxes that can keep the vaccine frozen for 10 days, boxes that hold 1000 or so doses. There are greater than 50 million doses ready to go, BUT there is still another month or so before we have all the safety studies completed for an FDA Emergency Use Authorization declaration.

On the biological level, the vaccine is a suspension of lipid nanoparticles containing Messenger RNA molecules that instructs a cell's protein manufacturing processes to make the Spike protein. This is a relatively new mechanism of vaccine production which doesn't use any viruses, native or manufactured, virally-manufactured proteins or inactivated COVID-19 virus. The mRNA in the vaccine is synthesized from raw nucleic acid chemicals. The nanoparticles lipid composition is such that they are easily and quickly ingested by cells so the production of the Spike protein can begin.

That's all I can get for now, will update as more data appears.
Click to expand...
Nothin’ better than a morning ‘constitutional’ Dom, especially after a coffee and bagel ?.

church is good too. ?
 
Dx life Rx fishing said:
So that storage at -90. How long (do we know) can it be at room temp or just refrigerated?
Click to expand...

Don't know exactly, BUT it seems that just long enough to bring to room temperature for injection. From a practical perspective, any place that vaccinates folks will need some sort of ultrafreezers, unless they can get daily shipments. This will be an exercise in logistics, because any COVID vaccination program will most likely be under State or Federal auspices like the Polio and Swine Flu programs. Therefore we won't be going to Walgreens or our GPs for this vaccination, and the chosen sites will have the appropriate storage/logistic situations.
 
Well thats good. Thats one reason I don't get the flu shot from the roving cart here at work. It clearly says to keep refrigerated and they just roll around the hospital with it at room temp. Who knows for how long.
 
Nice try, but no science in the original post. Please take it to the other COVID thread, move along folks, no science here...

That being said, quite humorous to see a post on a hedge fund site posting an economic analysis from a major finance institution stating that no matter what COVID actions a country takes, the economy takes a hit.

A pandemic wrecking havoc with the economy no matter what people do!! Ya think that could impact the economy??

Yup, there's a no chit Sherlock moment...
 
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