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A new report released Friday from the Congressional Budget Office is surprising, even stunning. The "CBO" is not thought to be a friend of Republican presidents and Congresses. Questions always arise from "supply-siders" about whether CBO rejects serious "dynamic scoring" of developments in the law and in major regulatory actions. Whatever the agency’s methodology, it issued a report on the Trump tariffs at the close of last week.

"We project that increases in tariffs implemented during the period from January 6, 2025, to August 19, 2025 will decrease primary deficits (which exclude net outlays for interest) by $3.3 trillion if the higher tariffs persist for the 2025‒2035 period," Phillip Swagel, CBO’s director wrote. "By reducing the need for federal borrowing, those tariff collections will also reduce federal outlays for interest by an additional $0.7 trillion. As a result, the changes in tariffs will reduce total deficits by $4.0 trillion altogether."
 

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