2025 MD Striped Bass Young of Year Assessment - Make that 7 consecutive spawn failures!!

[Roccus7]

A picture is worth one thousand words!!!

 

[hawk375]

Need to find problem or go back to striped bass act of 1984 b) There are authorized to be appropriated to the Department ofCommerce, $200,000 for each of fiscal years 1986 and 1987, and theamount that is appropriated under this authority for each such yearshall be apportioned equally by the Secretary between the States ofMaryland and Virginia for use by each of them for the propagation,in existing hatchery facilities of that State, of striped bass for thereplenishment of the Chesapeake Bay stock: (1) if that State, foreach such fiscal year, expends an equal amount of State moneys forthe propagation of such stock in its hatchery facilities; and (2) if theSecretary considers that that State is in full compliance with thePla sta Right out of law standing by doing nothing only shows how incompetent the ASMFC has been

 

[Roccus7]

VA YOY a hair better, in that they're making the claim that it's good news, being a "normal year". Got to love how people look at statistics, NOT. True, the margin of error of this year's data's just ticks into the 95% confidence level of the 1967-2025 Mean, but I wouldn't be bragging about that.

If one of my colleagues at work would present and boast with results like this, he be introduced to a new series of holes so he had to pick the corresponding one to take his morning dump!!

 

[OVERBORED]

Chesapeake Bay 2025 Young-of-Year Striped Bass Survey Results Chesapeake Bay 2025 Young-of-Year Striped Bass Survey Results

 

[Roccus7]

Well I sent a letter to Megan Ware, the Chair of the ASFMC Striped Bass Management Board who happens to be from Maine.

To the ASMFC Striped Bass Management Board:

Congratulations!! ASMFC Striped Bass Management Board's historical standard operating procedure of "Kicking the Can Down the Road" has sentenced the Atlantic Striped Bass Fishery to failure! Look at yourselves, taking over 2 years to wrangle the Addendum III is tragic and unconscionable. With the 7th consecutive spawning failure just reported by MD, whatever you finally decide on for Addendum III will be the equivalent of using a squirt gun to put out a forest fire. An immediate, strongly conservative Addendum III may have been relevant 2 years ago; it's nothing more than a moot point at this juncture. The Management's Board handling of Addendum III is a classic example of too little, too late. I hope you're all congratulating yourselves in making sure that you tried to appease your special interest groups while ignoring your key responsibility, the Atlantic Striped Bass.

One would hope that you will marshal your efforts on actually trying to find out what has caused the continued spawning failures, the ROOT CAUSE of the impending doom of this noble fish, something that has been insured by the Board's love of delay. We've all heard hypotheses for the failures, but have yet to see any data from concerted studies. Time to actually do something instead of sending it out to committees, a well-designed and funded study beginning in April, 2026 that monitors all items critical to striped bass reproduction and maturation of eggs during their first 6 months in the Chesapeake. This positive action would demonstrate to the thousands of striped bass lovers and striped bass-related business that the ASMFC Striped Bass Management Board actually cares about this critical, historic resource.

Sincerely,
XXXXXXXX X XXXXX, PhD
Pemaquid, Maine

 

[hawk375]

They were supposed to do it from 1979 than congress gave it to them in 1984 the problem is they are mathematician not biologist the problem has been stated from the beginning with there formula garbage in leads to garbage out now it is time to throw garbage out and get rid of asmfc and let noaa take over

 

[longcast]

 

[george]

I've been covering this fishery for 38 years. I lived through the collapse. I documented the recovery. And what I'm seeing on the water today simply doesn't match what the YOY data is telling us. When a 70-year-old index loses 45% of its predictive power and fails to explain 70-85% of what we're actually seeing, it's time to question whether we're managing the fishery based on science or nostalgia.

The abundance I'm witnessing suggests the striped bass population is in far better shape than a statistical model from the 1950s would have us believe. Maybe it's time fisheries management caught up with what's actually happening in the water. I can't speak for anything happening north or south of here, but fir New York anglers, this is a healthy exciting fishery.

 

[hawk375]

I have to say George I agree

 

[Roccus7]

I've been covering this fishery for 38 years. I lived through the collapse. I documented the recovery. And what I'm seeing on the water today simply doesn't match what the YOY data is telling us. When a 70-year-old index loses 45% of its predictive power and fails to explain 70-85% of what we're actually seeing, it's time to question whether we're managing the fishery based on science or nostalgia.

The abundance I'm witnessing suggests the striped bass population is in far better shape than a statistical model from the 1950s would have us believe. Maybe it's time fisheries management caught up with what's actually happening in the water. I can't speak for anything happening north or south of here, but fir New York anglers, this is a healthy exciting fishery.

George: YOY has no bearing on the overall population; it has never been, nor ever was used as such. It just tells everyone how many young fish hatched and survived until October, that's it. OK, so now with 7 failed spawns in a row, most of the fish in the current population are large ones. My data, along with everyone I hear from bears that out.

The YOY has absolutely no reasonable predictive value as to overall population numbers, but it will give insight as to the size distribution of the fish in the total population. The AI study you did wasn't programmed properly, so asking it for a predictive analysis was incorrect, and you know that garbage in = garbage out.

What Seven Consecutive YOY Failures tells us is that there are very few young fish in the population right now, and everyone who fishes for bass agrees will that. Hell, I haven't caught a bass less than 22" in 4 years, while the average size of the fish continues to grow. This validates those YOY data.

Doesn't take a PhD in fisheries management or AI to figure out that as we harvest larger fish, either recreational, commercially, and through natural mortality and predation, while there are VERY FEW small fish to replace those numbers, we will start seeing less bass, period.

I hope to hell I'm 1000% wrong, since neither one of us will probably be fishing if things don't turn around quickly.

But don't sweat too much, ASMFC will continue to kick the can down the road and since most people had pitiful seasons this year, they will proudly say, "Look we got that 12% reduction with the status quo and pat themselves on that back for doing nothing, and the numbers make may things look like things are peachy in 2029. The problem is things will fall to crap sometime soon after as there will be no fish to fill the gap, especially if nobody figures out what's causing the spawn failure and fixes it.

 

[OVERBORED]

Pitiful?

Spring Bass fishing in NY was as good as it gets. Perhaps your fish are staying with all those bunker outside that I hear about and not feeding in the estuaries.

In the end, I have no idea and speculation is a guess at best.

 

[Pangaroo]

Come to think of it , I never caught a Bass less than 21 inch's in my life. Where are the young ones living ? Maybe we shouldn't allow the river guys to keep 18 inch fish.

 

[george]

Let's put aside my doubts of the YOY reliability, let's assume it's correct. 2025 is the seventh year of below-average YOY scores a sign that recent spawns haven’t been strong. That sounds bad, and it’s not ideal, but it doesn’t mean the fishery is on the edge right now. Most scientists, including the ASMFC, say that YOY numbers mainly tell us how many young fish made it through their first season, not how many adult striped bass are actually out there on the coast.

Even with those weak spawns, there are still plenty of older, big fish in the system, thanks to some strong year classes from earlier in the 2010s and the fact that stripers can live 20 years or more. What’s keeping us going are these older fish, and it’s why anglers in places like New York are still seeing lots of action. But if the small fish don’t come back soon, the stock is going to get top-heavy, and that could mean trouble down the road.

The poor YOY is a warning, not proof that the whole population is collapsing. Slot limits and cuts are there to protect those big breeders and give the young ones time to rebound. In the meantime, what we see is a vibrant fishery.

 

[Pangaroo]

Let's put aside my doubts of the YOY reliability, let's assume it's correct. 2025 is the seventh year of below-average YOY scores a sign that recent spawns haven’t been strong. That sounds bad, and it’s not ideal, but it doesn’t mean the fishery is on the edge right now. Most scientists, including the ASMFC, say that YOY numbers mainly tell us how many young fish made it through their first season, not how many adult striped bass are actually out there on the coast.

Even with those weak spawns, there are still plenty of older, big fish in the system, thanks to some strong year classes from earlier in the 2010s and the fact that stripers can live 20 years or more. What’s keeping us going are these older fish, and it’s why anglers in places like New York are still seeing lots of action. But if the small fish don’t come back soon, the stock is going to get top-heavy, and that could mean trouble down the road.

The poor YOY is a warning, not proof that the whole population is collapsing. Slot limits and cuts are there to protect those big breeders and give the young ones time to rebound. In the meantime, what we see is a vibrant fishery.

I agree with you that we have a vibrant fishery. Fishing was incredible 2 falls ago. I don't trust Maryland .
We catch tiny snapper blues and weaks, did anybody here catch tiny Striped Bass 10-12 inch's ?

 

[Roccus7]

Let's put aside my doubts of the YOY reliability, let's assume it's correct. 2025 is the seventh year of below-average YOY scores a sign that recent spawns haven’t been strong. That sounds bad, and it’s not ideal, but it doesn’t mean the fishery is on the edge right now. Most scientists, including the ASMFC, say that YOY numbers mainly tell us how many young fish made it through their first season, not how many adult striped bass are actually out there on the coast.

Even with those weak spawns, there are still plenty of older, big fish in the system, thanks to some strong year classes from earlier in the 2010s and the fact that stripers can live 20 years or more. What’s keeping us going are these older fish, and it’s why anglers in places like New York are still seeing lots of action. But if the small fish don’t come back soon, the stock is going to get top-heavy, and that could mean trouble down the road.

The poor YOY is a warning, not proof that the whole population is collapsing. Slot limits and cuts are there to protect those big breeders and give the young ones time to rebound. In the meantime, what we see is a vibrant fishery.

That is exactly correct, so why do you harp on the predictability factor when it comes down to the YOY data? It's never been touted as a tool for short-term predictability, but trends in those data may be a signal of danger or success in the future. Let's face it, 7 stinkers in a row, is disconcerting to say the least.

Bottom line, IF we don't start seeing improved YOY results, fishing pressure and natural mortality will continue to chip away at the bass population and without any new fish to bolster those numbers we're looking at the edge of the cliff.

Right now, ASMFC is directing a Short Attention Span Theater Drama, looking at the 2029 goal. If nobody does anything to take steps to improve the YOY, none of ASMFC's proposed actions for Addendum III will stave off an inevitable population crash.

That's why I could care less whatever the hell they do with Addendum III. They will continue to dick around with it, fight over it, and eventually herald its passage as a great step for striped bass, when they should be cognizant that it's only a bureaucratic event and will do little, if anything to stave off that tsunami on the horizon, and that's what bothers me.

 

[OVERBORED]

I agree with Roccus.

Unfortunately, fisheries managers are emboldened to be reactive and are criticized for suggesting a proactive plan.

I personally believe that the method for gathering YOY data is flawed, As with most other species, the northern range of SB has been expanded. Perhaps the historical spawning areas are no longer favorable and the fish lay their eggs elsewhere.

I just know that the spring and fall fishing is as good as I've seen!

 

[hawk375]

Bottom line is other fish in alot more trouble than striped bass water quality and possible stocking could also help

 

[george]

@Roccus7 .You’re absolutely right that what we’re seeing along the coast, particularly in New York, doesn’t square neatly with the Maryland YOY index.

When you look at the historical record in that chart, it actually backs up your observations. We’ve been here before with long runs of poor YOY results in the late 1970s and early 1980s that looked just as grim right before the population rebounded in a massive way. The same thing happened again in the early 2000s. In both cases, one strong spawn flipped the entire outlook within just a few years. That’s because striped bass recruitment is cyclical, and it only takes one or two good year classes to reset the balance.

Yes, the seven-year streak of weak YOY numbers isn’t great, and it’s a reminder to stay vigilant, but the data doesn’t say collapse; it says cycle. When you combine that with the incredible catches we’ve all seen the past few seasons, especially here in New York waters, it paints a much healthier picture than the index alone.

If history tells us anything, it’s that this fishery is resilient, and we may be one good spawn away from the next boom.

 

[Pangaroo]

Bottom line is other fish in alot more trouble than striped bass water quality and possible stocking could also help

Extend state waters out 12 miles , ban dragging off NJ and NY for the next 15 years and stock winter flounder. I guarantee we'll have wonderful winter flounder fishing again . If they don't ban dragging, the flounder will never rebound.

 

[Roccus7]

@Roccus7 .You’re absolutely right that what we’re seeing along the coast, particularly in New York, doesn’t square neatly with the Maryland YOY index.

When you look at the historical record in that chart, it actually backs up your observations. We’ve been here before with long runs of poor YOY results in the late 1970s and early 1980s that looked just as grim right before the population rebounded in a massive way. The same thing happened again in the early 2000s. In both cases, one strong spawn flipped the entire outlook within just a few years. That’s because striped bass recruitment is cyclical, and it only takes one or two good year classes to reset the balance.

Yes, the seven-year streak of weak YOY numbers isn’t great, and it’s a reminder to stay vigilant, but the data doesn’t say collapse; it says cycle. When you combine that with the incredible catches we’ve all seen the past few seasons, especially here in New York waters, it paints a much healthier picture than the index alone.

If history tells us anything, it’s that this fishery is resilient, and we may be one good spawn away from the next boom.

Absolutely, I do get carried away, but as I age I'm worried that the boom that we hope for may be too late for me to ever enjoy. Relying on that happening without knowing why it happens is an act of faith, not of science, especially when we don't know exactly why spawns fail or succeed. That makes it an act of blind faith.

It certainly would be nice if there would be concerted efforts in trying to figure out the whys for both booms and/or busts. It may be something we can correct for, but then again, it may not be. At least it gives us some sense of WTF is going on and help the management process to be more proactive instead of reactive. That would be a refreshing twist to fisheries management...