ASMFC Striped Bass Draft Addendum III - Plain English Summary

[pequa1]

This goes for most fish. Males run smaller and the saying “bow to the cow” applies

 

[Roccus7]

Well, as predicted, ASMFC in their usual kick the can down the road mentality, and their inability to make tough decisions, stuck with keeping the current striped bass regulations for 2026.

My boss used to have a saying about delaying action and I find it most appropriate here, If you do nothing this big problem will eventually become a small problem. And then I can't wait for the howling and gnashing of teeth when the people who were dead set against taking a proactive conservation steps, start blaming ASMFC for not doing anything.

 

[hartattack]

Some good news on the Bunker front….

The Atlantic Menhaden Management Board has voted to cut the coastwide menhaden catch limit by 20% for 2026, setting the new total allowable catch at 186,840 metric tons. The decision, made by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC), is a compromise following a new stock assessment that suggested a far more drastic reduction was needed to protect the ecosystem.
Key details of the board's decision

Coastwide cut: The 20% reduction applies to the entire Atlantic coast.
Effective date and duration: The new limit will take effect in 2026. Catch limits will be reassessed for the 2027 and 2028 fishing seasons.
Chesapeake Bay cap: The current cap for the Chesapeake Bay remains at 51,000 metric tons. Environmental groups had pushed for a cut of up to 50% for the Bay, which is considered a vital nursery for menhaden.
Rationale for the catch reduction

The board's decision was prompted by a 2025 benchmark stock assessment that revealed troubling new data about the menhaden population.
Updated stock assessment: The assessment found that the menhaden biomass is 37% lower than previously estimated. This was largely due to revised data on natural mortality.

Ecological targets at risk: The board's ecological reference point (ERP) model, which manages menhaden based on its role in the food web, was updated to reflect the new data.

The assessment showed that the previous catch limit of 233,550 metric tons had a 100% probability of exceeding the new, more conservative fishing mortality target.

According to the ASMFC, even the 2026 limit of 186,840 metric tons has a 100% chance of exceeding the target.

 

[hawk375]

After attending this meeting I can assure you of one thing the asmfc is the blind leading the blind

 

[Matts]

Striped Bass Draft Addendum III - Plain English Summary And the AI Outlook on What The Future May Hold For Striped Bass​

The Bottom Line

Striped bass are still overfished. Without changes, there's only a 30% chance the stock will rebuild by the 2029 deadline. The proposed management changes aim for a 12% reduction in fishing mortality starting in 2026 to boost recovery odds to 50%.

Key Options for Anglers

Ocean Recreational Options:

• Option O1: Keep current 28-31" slot, add seasonal closures
• Option O2: Private/shore anglers stay at 28-31", for-hire boats get 28-33", with seasonal closures

Chesapeake Bay Recreational Options:

• Option CB1: Tighten slot to 20-23" (from current 19-24")
• Option CB2: Private/shore gets 19-22", for-hire gets 19-25"
• Option CB3: Keep current 19-24" slot, add seasonal closures

Seasonal Closure Types:

• No-harvest: Can still fish catch-and-release
• No-targeting: Cannot target striped bass at all

Closures would vary by region - New England states would close during different periods than Mid-Atlantic states. Closures range from 14-61 days depending on the wave (2-month period) selected.

Maryland Special Provision:Maryland wants to simplify their complex regulations by opening April to catch-and-release (currently no-targeting) while extending the August closure from 16 to 31 days.

Commercial Changes​

• 12% quota reduction across the board
• Possible requirement to tag fish at harvest instead of point of sale

Reality Check on Recovery Odds​

The 50% probability target is concerning for several reasons:

1. Weak Recruitment: Six consecutive years of poor spawning in Chesapeake Bay (2019-2024). The Bay produces most East Coast striped bass.
2. The 2018 Problem: The last decent year class (2018) is entering the ocean slot limit in 2025, which will increase fishing mortality. After that, there are no strong year classes behind it.
3. Historical Pattern: Even with the proposed 12% reduction, projections show that if recruitment stays poor (likely given recent trends), the stock will start declining again after 2030.
4. Measurement Uncertainty: The technical committee admits reductions under 10% can't even be statistically verified given data limitations.

My Assessment: The 50% recovery probability by 2029 appears optimistic. The plan essentially bets on:

• Perfect compliance with new regulations
• No increase in fishing effort as the 2018 year class becomes available
• Recruitment improving from its current historic lows
• Environmental conditions in Chesapeake Bay improving

Without addressing the root cause - poor recruitment in Chesapeake Bay - these measures are treating symptoms, not the disease. The technical committee's "very low recruitment" scenario shows the stock declining after 2029 even with these restrictions.

What This Means for Anglers​

Short term (2026-2029): Expect tighter restrictions through either smaller slots or seasonal closures. For-hire boats might get slightly better size limits to offset business impacts.


Long term (2030+): If Chesapeake Bay recruitment doesn't improve, expect either:

• More severe restrictions
• Extended rebuilding timeline beyond 2029
• Potential moratorium scenarios like what happened in the 1980s

The addendum acknowledges these measures cause "only" a 12% reduction when the real issue - consecutive recruitment failures - suggests more aggressive action may be needed. The commission appears to be taking an incremental approach, likely hoping recruitment improves naturally while trying to minimize economic impacts.

Public comment period ends October 3, 2025. Final decisions expected October 2025 for 2026 implementation.

"Without addressing the root cause - poor recruitment in Chesapeake Bay - these measures are treating symptoms, not the disease."

 

[OVERBORED]

And what if the root cause is beyond your control?