ASMFC Striped Bass Draft Addendum III - Plain English Summary

[george]

Striped Bass Draft Addendum III - Plain English Summary And the AI Outlook on What The Future May Hold For Striped Bass​

The Bottom Line

Striped bass are still overfished. Without changes, there's only a 30% chance the stock will rebuild by the 2029 deadline. The proposed management changes aim for a 12% reduction in fishing mortality starting in 2026 to boost recovery odds to 50%.

Key Options for Anglers

Ocean Recreational Options:

• Option O1: Keep current 28-31" slot, add seasonal closures
• Option O2: Private/shore anglers stay at 28-31", for-hire boats get 28-33", with seasonal closures

Chesapeake Bay Recreational Options:

• Option CB1: Tighten slot to 20-23" (from current 19-24")
• Option CB2: Private/shore gets 19-22", for-hire gets 19-25"
• Option CB3: Keep current 19-24" slot, add seasonal closures

Seasonal Closure Types:

• No-harvest: Can still fish catch-and-release
• No-targeting: Cannot target striped bass at all

Closures would vary by region - New England states would close during different periods than Mid-Atlantic states. Closures range from 14-61 days depending on the wave (2-month period) selected.

Maryland Special Provision:Maryland wants to simplify their complex regulations by opening April to catch-and-release (currently no-targeting) while extending the August closure from 16 to 31 days.

Commercial Changes​

• 12% quota reduction across the board
• Possible requirement to tag fish at harvest instead of point of sale

Reality Check on Recovery Odds​

The 50% probability target is concerning for several reasons:

1. Weak Recruitment: Six consecutive years of poor spawning in Chesapeake Bay (2019-2024). The Bay produces most East Coast striped bass.
2. The 2018 Problem: The last decent year class (2018) is entering the ocean slot limit in 2025, which will increase fishing mortality. After that, there are no strong year classes behind it.
3. Historical Pattern: Even with the proposed 12% reduction, projections show that if recruitment stays poor (likely given recent trends), the stock will start declining again after 2030.
4. Measurement Uncertainty: The technical committee admits reductions under 10% can't even be statistically verified given data limitations.

My Assessment: The 50% recovery probability by 2029 appears optimistic. The plan essentially bets on:

• Perfect compliance with new regulations
• No increase in fishing effort as the 2018 year class becomes available
• Recruitment improving from its current historic lows
• Environmental conditions in Chesapeake Bay improving

Without addressing the root cause - poor recruitment in Chesapeake Bay - these measures are treating symptoms, not the disease. The technical committee's "very low recruitment" scenario shows the stock declining after 2029 even with these restrictions.

What This Means for Anglers​

Short term (2026-2029): Expect tighter restrictions through either smaller slots or seasonal closures. For-hire boats might get slightly better size limits to offset business impacts.


Long term (2030+): If Chesapeake Bay recruitment doesn't improve, expect either:

• More severe restrictions
• Extended rebuilding timeline beyond 2029
• Potential moratorium scenarios like what happened in the 1980s

The addendum acknowledges these measures cause "only" a 12% reduction when the real issue - consecutive recruitment failures - suggests more aggressive action may be needed. The commission appears to be taking an incremental approach, likely hoping recruitment improves naturally while trying to minimize economic impacts.

Public comment period ends October 3, 2025. Final decisions expected October 2025 for 2026 implementation.

 

[george]

I'm curious what our resident striped bass expert @Roccus7 thinks of the summary and the AI Outlook

 

[Roccus7]

I'm curious what our resident striped bass expert @Roccus7 thinks of the summary and the AI Outlook

I'll bite. Not sure if it was AI or RG (Real George), but as stated the bottom line for the future is DOOM AND GLOOM until the reason for the spawn failures needs to be identified and rectified. Therefore IMHO, ASMFC is channeling Nero here, fiddling here while Rome burns.

In this season, I basically gave up after July 14th, as I caught the last of the 10 fish, the smallest being a single 25", I caught this year on Jun 26th. After that fish, I rarely saw any and never even had a follow. So bottom line, I fulfilled all the desired reductions this season, less trips, less fish kept and less fish caught.

I get a little wood now and then and head out, like I did this AM with a hot trip of a spot that produced 2 nice fish yesterday. My source was there today and the 2 of us methodically fished the small cove that he successfully fished yesterday, and neither one even saw a fish, although we did have mackerel hassle our poppers.

But I digress, those spawn numbers make Sisyphus look successful, so my thoughts are moot, but this is what I'd like to see come out of their ideas, which BTW, I feel are totally worthless, but that's what we're commenting on...

• NO CLOSED TARGETING seasons, CLOSED RETENTION, YES!!!, CLOSED TARGETING, NFW!!! If there are closed TARGETING dates guess I'll be breaking the law whenever I damn well feel like it or just say I'm targeting mackerel... I'm good with less striper sashimi with a reduced Retention Season.
  
  
• Sorry @captmike28, but no differences between For Hire & Private fishermen. Nothing like this to further breakup the recreational sector folks and fighting between them.
  
  
• Keep the tight slot, we need to do everything possible to keep as many spawners working, even though their fertilized eggs are becoming 1 year old fish as much as we'd like.
  
  
• Yes, Commercial and Recreational should both have the same reduction target, and it would be nice to have tags applied when a fish is caught to shut down high-grading.

That's if for now, I could go for hours, but as my professional life taught me, until you figure out the root cause of a problem and fix that, you'll be looking into a large scale "Chinese Fire Drill", excuse the analogy...