NY Mets

PIITB!!

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Here is AI's prediction and odds for the Mets:

Entering Thursday, the Mets have a 56.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 0.6 percent chance to win the NL East and a 2.2 percent chance to win the World Series.

And the many scenarios:
Based on the latest information from the search results, here's what needs to happen for the Mets to make the playoffs:
  1. Current Standing:
    The Mets are currently in the third Wild Card spot in the National League, with a record of 87-69.
  2. Magic Number:
    The Mets' magic number to clinch a Wild Card spot is currently five. This means any combination of Mets wins and losses by the team chasing them (currently the Braves) totaling five will secure their playoff berth.
  3. Crucial Series vs. Braves:
    • The Mets and Braves were scheduled to play a series in Atlanta, but due to Hurricane Helene, the final two games have been postponed.
    • These games will be made up as a doubleheader on Monday, October 1st.
    • The season series between the Mets and Braves is currently tied 5-5, with these final games determining the tiebreaker.
  4. Scenarios:
    • If the Mets take two of three from the Braves in their upcoming series (including the doubleheader), they will clinch a Wild Card spot.
    • Alternatively, if the Mets go 4-2 over their final six games, they will secure a playoff berth.
  5. Remaining Schedule:
    • The Mets will face the Brewers in Milwaukee for a three-game series (Friday through Sunday).
    • They will then travel back to Atlanta for the doubleheader on Monday, October 1st.
  6. Potential Complications:
    • If playoff spots are not clinched by the weekend, the Mets will have a grueling schedule, potentially playing in Milwaukee, then Atlanta, and possibly back to Milwaukee or San Diego for the start of the Wild Card series the very next day.
  7. Tiebreaker Implications:
    • The outcome of the Mets-Braves series (including the doubleheader) will determine the tiebreaker between these teams if they end up with the same record.
In summary, the Mets need to either win their series against the Braves (including the doubleheader) or maintain their current lead over the next few games to secure a playoff spot. The rescheduled doubleheader on October 1st could be crucial in determining their postseason fate.
 
New AI Update:

As of today, September 28, 2024, here are the scenarios for the New York Mets to make the playoffs and their current odds:

## Playoff Scenarios

The Mets are currently in a tight race for the National League Wild Card spots. They have a magic number of four to clinch a playoff berth[2]. Here are the potential scenarios:

1. **Win and They're In**: If the Mets win their remaining four games (three against the Brewers and one against the Braves), they will clinch a playoff spot regardless of other teams' results[6].

2. **Combination of Wins and Losses**: The Mets can clinch with any combination of their wins and losses by the Diamondbacks or Braves totaling four[2]. For example:
- Mets win three games, and either the Diamondbacks or Braves lose once
- Mets win two games, and either the Diamondbacks or Braves lose twice

3. **Weekend Clinch**: The Mets can clinch as early as this weekend if they win at least two out of three against the Brewers and the Diamondbacks lose at least two out of three against the Padres[2][5].

4. **Tiebreaker Advantage**: The Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks due to winning their season series 4-3[1][3]. This means if they finish with the same record as Arizona, the Mets would advance.

5. **Last-Minute Clinch**: In a worst-case scenario, if the Mets are swept by the Brewers, they could still clinch by winning both games of their doubleheader against the Braves on Monday[5].

## Playoff Odds

The Mets' chances of making the playoffs are currently favorable:

- FanGraphs projects the Mets have a 77.9% chance of reaching the postseason[5].
- Their playoff odds are -150, which implies a 60% chance of making the postseason[1].

## Wild Card Standings

As of September 22 (most recent data available in search results):

1. Padres: 90-66 (.577), +3.0
2. Diamondbacks: 87-69 (.558)
3. Mets: 87-69 (.558)
4. Braves: 85-71 (.545), 2.0 GB[4]

The Mets are currently holding the third Wild Card spot, tied with the Diamondbacks but owning the tiebreaker.

It's important to note that the Mets' playoff chances are strong, but they still need to perform well in their remaining games to secure their spot in the postseason. Their fate is largely in their own hands, with multiple paths to clinching a Wild Card berth.

Citations:
[1] Mets Playoff Picture: Chances, Bracket, Seed for 2024
[2] New York Mets’ Path to Clinching Postseason Berth
[3] Mets Wild Card clinching scenarios ahead of 2024 MLB playoffs
[4] Mets playoff picture: Updated standings, schedule, scenarios for New York to make 2024 MLB postseason | Sporting News
[5] Mets 2024 postseason chase: Possible Wild Card clinching scenarios
[6] MLB playoff scenarios: NL wild card race coming down to the wire
 
What AI doesn't account for is the "pucker" factor.

The Mets have a recent history of collapse.
Players know it.
Fans know it.
Other teams know it.

Suddenly the Mets are playing very tight and that's not good.

I'm hopeful but concerned like everyone else who roots for this team.
 
OVERBORED said:
What AI doesn't account for is the "pucker" factor.

The Mets have a recent history of collapse.
Players know it.
Fans know it.
Other teams know it.

Suddenly the Mets are playing very tight and that's not good.

I'm hopeful but concerned like everyone else who roots for this team.
Click to expand...
Here's AI's take on that:

While the Mets' current playoff odds of 60.1% according to FanGraphs are encouraging, it's understandable to be cautious given the team's recent history. Here are some factors to consider when evaluating their true playoff chances:
  1. Recent momentum: The Mets have gone 54-29 since June 3rd, which is an impressive .651 winning percentage over a significant stretch. This suggests their current level of play is sustainable.
  2. Remaining schedule: The Mets still have challenging series against the Phillies, Braves, and Brewers. These games will be crucial in determining their playoff fate.
  3. Tiebreaker advantage: The Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, which could be significant in a close race.
  4. Magic number: The Mets' magic number to clinch a playoff spot is currently 4, meaning any combination of Mets wins and losses by their closest competitors totaling 4 will secure their spot.
  5. Historical context: The Mets have had late-season collapses in the past, most notably in 2007 and 2008. However, this team has shown resilience in overcoming a poor start to the season.
  6. Unexpected contributors: Players like Phil Maton, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and José Quintana have stepped up, providing depth and performance beyond preseason expectations.
  7. Leadership: Francisco Lindor has emerged as a strong clubhouse leader and MVP candidate, which could help the team maintain focus down the stretch.
Taking all these factors into account, while the 60.1% odds from FanGraphs are a statistical projection, the Mets' true odds of making the playoffs are likely somewhere in the 50-60% range. They have put themselves in a good position, but still need to perform well in their remaining games to secure a spot. The team's recent strong play and current position are encouraging, but their history of late-season struggles means fans may remain cautiously optimistic until they officially clinch.
 
"True odds" are anything but when you factor in mindset and pressure.
Milwaukee has no pressure. Atlanta knows they have the Mets number and so do the Mets.
That's going to be difficult to overcome.
I hope I'm wrong!
 
Fortunately for the Mets, Arizona keeps losing too.

Going to come down to the double header on Monday.

We definitely need to win one game probably both.

Let's METS!

🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🙏🙏🙏
 
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