The COVID-19 Science and Medicine Question Thread

Since this won't make it on FOX News, figured it belonged here. I had read about this group's work a few months ago..

Newly Discovered Bat Viruses Give Hints to Covid’s Origins​

Coronaviruses discovered in Laotian bats are surprisingly adept at infecting human cells, showing that such deadly features can indeed evolve outside of a lab.

Newly Discovered Bat Viruses Give Hints to Covid’s Origins

A least horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus pusillus, one of three species of horseshoe bat observed in the study.

A least horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus pusillus, one of three species of horseshoe bat observed in the study. Credit...Kevin K. Caldwell

By Carl Zimmer
Oct. 14, 2021Updated 12:34 p.m. ET

In the summer of 2020, half a year into the coronavirus pandemic, scientists traveled into the forests of northern Laos to catch bats that might harbor close cousins of the pathogen.

In the dead of night, they used mist nets and canvas traps to snag the animals as they emerged from nearby caves, gathered samples of saliva, urine and feces, then released them back into the darkness.

The fecal samples turned out to contain coronaviruses, which the scientists studied in high security biosafety labs, known as BSL-3, using specialized protective gear and air filters.

Three of the Laos coronaviruses were unusual: They carried a molecular hook on their surface that was very similar to the hook on the virus that causes Covid-19, called SARS-CoV-2. Like SARS-CoV-2, their hook allowed them to latch onto human cells.

“It is even better than early strains of SARS-CoV-2,” said Marc Eloit, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris who led the study, referring to how well the hook on the Laos coronaviruses binds to human cells. The study was posted online last month and has not yet been published in a scientific journal.

Virus experts are buzzing about the discovery. Some suspect that these SARS-CoV-2-like viruses may already be infecting people from time to time, causing only mild and limited outbreaks. But under the right circumstances, the pathogens could give rise to a Covid-19-like pandemic, they say.

The findings also have significant implications for the charged debate over Covid’s origins, experts say. Some people have speculated that SARS-CoV-2’s impressive ability to infect human cells could not have evolved through a natural spillover from an animal. But the new findings seem to suggest otherwise.

“That really puts to bed any notion that this virus had to have been concocted, or somehow manipulated in a lab, to be so good at infecting humans,” said Michael Worobey, a University of Arizona virologist who was not involved in the work.

These bat viruses, along with more than a dozen others discovered in recent months in Laos, Cambodia, China and Thailand, may also help researchers better anticipate future pandemics. The viruses’ family trees offer hints about where potentially dangerous strains are lurking, and which animals scientists should look at to find them.

Sampling Wild Viruses​

Three bats captured in northern Laos carried viruses that were remarkably similar to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Samples from wild animals, below, may help researchers anticipate future pandemics.

Last week, the U.S. government announced a $125 million project to identify thousands of wild viruses in Asia, Latin America and Africa to determine their risk of spillover. Dr. Eloit predicted that there were many more relatives of SARS-CoV-2 left to find.

“I am a fly fisherman,” he said. “When I am unable to catch a trout, that doesn’t mean there are no trout in the river.”

When SARS-CoV-2 first came to light, its closest known relative was a bat coronavirus that Chinese researchers found in 2016 in a mine in southern China’s Yunnan Province. RaTG13, as it is known, shares 96 percent of its genome with SARS-CoV-2. Based on the mutations carried by each virus, scientists have estimated that RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 share a common ancestor that infected bats about 40 years ago.
Both viruses infect cells by using a molecular hook, called the “receptor-binding domain,” to latch on to their surface. RaTG13’s hook, adapted for attaching to bat cells, can only cling weakly to human cells. SARS-CoV-2’s hook, by contrast, can clasp cells in the human airway, the first step toward a potentially lethal case of Covid-19.

To find other close relatives of SARS-CoV-2, wildlife virus experts checked their freezers full of old samples from across the world. They identified several similar coronaviruses from southern China, Cambodia, and Thailand. Most came from bats, while a few came from scaly mammals known as pangolins. None was a closer relative than RaTG13.

Dr. Eloit and his colleagues instead set out to find new coronaviruses.

They traveled to northern Laos, about 150 miles from the mine where Chinese researchers had found RaTG13. Over six months they caught 645 bats, belonging to 45 different species. The bats harbored two dozen kinds of coronaviruses, three of which were strikingly similar to SARS-CoV-2 — especially in the receptor-binding domain.

Dr. Eloit speculated that one or more of the coronaviruses might be able to infect humans and cause mild disease. In a separate study, he and colleagues took blood samples from people in Laos who collect bat guano for a living. Although the Laotians did not show signs of having been infected with SARS-CoV-2, they carried immune markers, called antibodies, that appeared to be caused by a similar virus.

Linfa Wang, a molecular virologist at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore who was not involved in the study, agreed that such an infection was possible, since the newly discovered viruses can attach tightly to a protein on human cells called ACE2.

“If the receptor binding domain is ready to use ACE2, these guys are dangerous,” Dr. Wang said.

Paradoxically, some other genes in the three Laotian viruses are more distantly related to SARS-CoV-2 than other bat viruses. The cause of this genetic patchwork is the complex evolution of coronaviruses.

If a bat infected with one coronavirus catches a second one, the two different viruses may end up in a single cell at once. As that cell begins to replicate each of those viruses, their genes get shuffled together, producing new virus hybrids.

In the Laotian coronaviruses, this gene shuffling has given them a receptor-binding domain that’s very similar to that of SARS-CoV-2. The original genetic swap took place about a decade ago, according to a preliminary analysis by Spyros Lytras, a graduate student at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.

Mr. Lytras and his colleagues are now comparing SARS-CoV-2 not just to the new viruses from Laos, but to other close relatives that have been found in recent months. They’re finding even more evidence of gene shuffling. This process — known as recombination — may be reshaping the viruses from year to year.

“It’s becoming more and more obvious how important recombination is,” Mr. Lytras said.

He and his colleagues are now drawing the messy evolutionary trees of SARS-CoV-2-like viruses based on these new insights. Finding more viruses could help clear up the picture. But scientists are divided as to where to look for them.

Dr. Eloit believes the best bet is a zone of Southeast Asia that includes the site where his colleagues found their coronaviruses, as well as the nearby mine in Yunnan where RaTG13 was found.

“I think the main landscape corresponds to north Vietnam, north Laos and south China,” Dr. Eloit said.

The U.S. government’s new virus-hunting project, called DEEP VZN, may turn up one or more SARS-CoV-2-like viruses in that region. A spokesman for USAID, the agency funding the effort, named Vietnam as one of the countries where researchers will be searching, and said that new coronaviruses are one of their top priorities.

Other scientists think it’s worth looking for relatives of SARS-CoV-2 further afield. Dr. Worobey of the University of Arizona said that some bat coronaviruses carrying SARS-CoV-2-like segments have been found in eastern China and Thailand.

“Clearly the recombination is showing us that these viruses are part of a single gene pool over hundreds and hundreds of miles, if not thousands of miles,” Dr. Worobey said.

Colin Carlson, a biologist at Georgetown University, suspects that a virus capable of producing a Covid-like outbreak might be lurking even further away. Bats as far east as Indonesia and as far west as India, he noted, share many biological features with the animals known to carry SARS-CoV-2-like viruses.

“This is not just a Southeast Asia problem,” Dr. Carlson said. “These viruses are diverse, and they are more cosmopolitan than we have thought.”

The interest in the origins of the pandemic has put renewed attention on the safety measures researchers are using when studying potentially dangerous viruses. To win DEEP VZN grants, scientists will have to provide a biosafety and biosecurity plan, according to a USAID spokesman, including training for staff, guidelines on protective equipment to be worn in the field and safety measures for lab work.

If scientists find more close cousins of SARS-CoV-2, it doesn’t necessarily mean they pose a deadly threat. They might fail to spread in humans or, as some scientists speculate, cause only small outbreaks. Just seven coronaviruses are known to have jumped the species barrier to become well-established human pathogens.

“There’s probably a vast range of other coronaviruses that end up going nowhere,” said Jessica Metcalf, an evolutionary ecologist at Princeton University.

Still, recombination may be able to turn a virus going nowhere into a new threat. In May, researchers reported that two coronaviruses in dogs recombined in Indonesia. The result was a hybrid that infected eight children.

“When a coronavirus that we have monitored for decades, that we think of as just something our pets can get, can make the jump — we should have seen that coming, right?” Dr. Carlson said.
 
When you add in the population density of most larger cities around the globe, you can see with some certainty that ANY virus or bacterium can easily spread. Cruise ships are a microcosm of this effect.
 
When you add in the population density of most larger cities around the globe, you can see with some certainty that ANY virus or bacterium can easily spread. Cruise ships are a microcosm of this effect.
which is why our Viking cruise, and many others, are mandating vaccinations or don't bother to come.
 
FDA has approved boosters for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

They also stated that the boosters are interchangeable.
Wife got Pfizer booster shot weeks ago Its cool they mixin shit up now any clue when they will get one spot on?

An FDA Advisory Committee approved booster shots for all three, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J. To date, only the Pfizer booster has been OK'd by FDA and CDC, so it's available. It's believed within the next week or two both Moderna and J&J boosters will be approved and available.

There has been NO approval for interchangeable boosters by any group at FDA or CDC. They have been looking at the data, but there has been no action on this yet.

Not that this is a scientific study, but all my friends who have had the 3 jab Pfizer regime have said the booster knocked the crap out of them, some saying worse than either of the 1st 2 injections. Hopefully I'll be able to report back on the Moderna booster in the next week or two, as soon as it gets an approval...
 
Not that this is a scientific study, but all my friends who have had the 3 jab Pfizer regime have said the booster knocked the crap out of them, some saying worse than either of the 1st 2 injections. Hopefully I'll be able to report back on the Moderna booster in the next week or two, as soon as it gets an approval...
going for my booster (Pfizer) on Thursday this coming week....

Hope it's not worse then the second shot. That one kicked my arse.
 
In the latest issue of Science, there was a discussion on the use of the booster shot.

Apparently there is some disagreement on the usage of the booster. CDCs Advisory committee on immunization practices had recommended boosters "only for people 65 and older,those at high risk of serious disease because of underlying medical conditions, and residents of long-term care facilities."

They voted 9-6 However they rejected boosters for "high-risk, front line workers" stating "data were LACKING to support a benefit in such workers" CDC director Walensky included the workers to have what she called "the greatest impact". her decision is also in line with the FDA.

So, were told to "follow the science" with all these decisions so why hasnt the CDC followed the science?
 
In the latest issue of Science, there was a discussion on the use of the booster shot.

Apparently there is some disagreement on the usage of the booster. CDCs Advisory committee on immunization practices had recommended boosters "only for people 65 and older,those at high risk of serious disease because of underlying medical conditions, and residents of long-term care facilities."

They voted 9-6 However they rejected boosters for "high-risk, front line workers" stating "data were LACKING to support a benefit in such workers" CDC director Walensky included the workers to have what she called "the greatest impact". her decision is also in line with the FDA.

So, were told to "follow the science" with all these decisions so why hasnt the CDC followed the science?

..
Good question that highlights the "kinetics" of all the different advisory panels at CDC and FDA. They are "advisory" and their recommendations can be taken verbatim, totally ignored or modified by those on high. Can't tell you how many times I've come out of an FDA Advisory Committee meeting thinking one thing was going to to happen based on the meeting, only to find out it was overruled or significantly altered.

Look at the FDA approval of Aducanumab for Alzheimer's even though their Advisory Panel recommended it wasn't approved. IIRC more than one Panel members resigned in protest after the approval.

Hey now that I think about it, NOAA, NMFS and ASMFC do the same thing. Advisory Panels say one thing, but they end up doing the opposite!!
 
Speaks volumes that WHO will risk potential patent infringement charges to get adequate COVID vaccine for poorer countries, especially for something that addresses a "hoax", "isn't a vaccine" and contains "tracking devices".

Guess I was wrong, but I thought part of the Operation Warp Speed funding was the agreement to share some of the IP if the manufacturers couldn't supply poorer countries with adequate vaccine supplies...

Africa tries to end vaccine inequity by replicating its own​

pressherald.com/2021/10/24/africa-tries-to-end-vaccine-inequity-by-replicating-its-own/

LORI HINNANT, MARIA CHENG and ANDREW MELDRUM October 24, 2021
Scientists re-enact the calibration procedure of equipment at an Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines facility Oct. 19 in Cape Town, South Africa. In a pair of warehouses converted into a maze of airlocked sterile rooms, young scientists are assembling and calibrating the equipment needed to reverse engineer a coronavirus vaccine that has yet to reach South Africa and most of the world's poor.


CAPE TOWN, South Africa — In a pair of Cape Town warehouses converted into a maze of airlocked sterile rooms, young scientists are assembling and calibrating the equipment needed to reverse engineer a coronavirus vaccine that has yet to reach South Africa and most of the world’s poorest people.
The energy in the gleaming labs matches the urgency of their mission to narrow vaccine disparities. By working to replicate Moderna’s COVID-19 shot, the scientists are effectively making an end run around an industry that has vastly prioritized rich countries over poor in both sales and manufacturing.

And they are doing it with unusual backing from the World Health Organization, which is coordinating a vaccine research, training and production hub in South Africa along with a related supply chain for critical raw materials. It’s a last-resort effort to make doses for people going without, and the intellectual property implications are still murky.

“We are doing this for Africa at this moment, and that drives us,” said Emile Hendricks, a 22-year-old biotechnologist for Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines, the company trying to reproduce the Moderna shot. “We can no longer rely on these big superpowers to come in and save us.”

Some experts see reverse engineering – recreating vaccines from fragments of publicly available information – as one of the few remaining ways to redress the power imbalances of the pandemic. Only 0.7 percent of vaccines have gone to low-income countries so far, while nearly half have gone to wealthy countries, according to an analysis by the People’s Vaccine Alliance.

That WHO, which relies upon the goodwill of wealthy countries and the pharmaceutical industry for its continued existence, is leading the attempt to reproduce a proprietary vaccine demonstrates the depths of the supply disparities.

The U.N.-backed effort to even out global vaccine distribution, known as COVAX, has failed to alleviate dire shortages in poor countries. Donated doses are coming in at a fraction of what is needed to fill the gap. Meanwhile, pressure for drug companies to share, including Biden administration demands on Moderna, has led nowhere.

Until now, WHO has never directly taken part in replicating a novel vaccine for current global use over the objections of the original developers. The Cape Town hub is intended to expand access to the novel messenger RNA technology that Moderna, as well as Pfizer and German partner BioNTech, used in their vaccines.

“This is the first time we’re doing it to this level, because of the urgency and also because of the novelty of this technology,” said Martin Friede, a WHO vaccine research coordinator who is helping direct the hub.

Dr. Tom Frieden, the former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has described the world as “being held hostage” by Moderna and Pfizer, whose vaccines are considered the most effective against COVID-19. The novel mRNA process uses the genetic code for the spike protein of the coronavirus and is thought to trigger a better immune response than traditional vaccines.

Arguing that American taxpayers largely funded Moderna’s vaccine development, the Biden administration has insisted the company must expand production to help supply developing nations. The global shortfall through 2022 is estimated at 500 million and 4 billion doses, depending on how many other vaccines come on the market.

“The United States government has played a very substantial role in making Moderna the company it is,” said David Kessler, the head of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. program to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development.

Kessler would not say how far the administration would go in pressing the company. “They understand what we expect to happen,” he said.

Moderna has pledged to build a vaccine factory in Africa at some point in the future. But after pleading with drugmakers to share their recipes, raw materials and technological know-how, some poorer countries are done waiting.

Afrigen Managing Director Petro Terblanche said the Cape Town company is aiming to have a version of the Moderna vaccine ready for testing in people within a year and scaled up for commercial production not long after.
“We have a lot of competition coming from Big Pharma. They don’t want to see us succeed,” Terblanche said. “They are already starting to say that we don’t have the capability to do this. We are going to show them.”

If the team in South Africa succeeds in making a version of Moderna’s vaccine, the information will be publicly released for use by others, Terblanche said. Such sharing is closer to an approach U.S. President Joe Biden championed in the spring and the pharmaceutical industry strongly opposes.

Commercial production is the point at which intellectual property could become an issue. Moderna has said it would not pursue legal action against a company for infringing on its vaccine rights, but neither has it offered to help companies that have volunteered to make its mRNA shot.

Chairman Noubar Afeyan said Moderna determined it would be better to expand production itself than to share technology and plans to deliver billions of additional doses next year.

“Within the next six to nine months, the most reliable way to make high-quality vaccines and in an efficient way is going to be if we make them,” Afeyan said.

Zoltan Kis, an expert in messenger RNA vaccines at Britain’s University of Sheffield, said reproducing Moderna’s vaccine is “doable” but the task would be far easier if the company shared its expertise. Kis estimated the process involves fewer than a dozen major steps. But certain procedures are tricky, such as sealing the fragile messenger RNA in lipid nanoparticles, he said.

“It’s like a very complicated cooking recipe,” he said. “Having the recipe would be very, very helpful, and it would also help if someone could show you how to do it.”

A U.N.-backed public health organization still hopes to persuade Moderna that its approach to providing vaccines for poorer countries misses the mark. Formed in 2010, the Medicines Patent Pool initially focused on convincing pharmaceutical companies to share patents for AIDS drugs.

“It’s not about outsiders helping Africa,” Executive Director Charles Gore said of the South Africa vaccine hub. “Africa wants to be empowered, and that’s what this is about.”

It will eventually fall to Gore to try to resolve the intellectual property question. Work to recreate Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine is protected as research, so a potential dispute would surround steps to sell a replicated version commercially, he said.

“It’s about persuading Moderna to work with us rather than using other methods,” Gore said.

He said the Medicines Patent Pool repeatedly tried but failed to convince Pfizer and BioNTech to even discuss sharing their formulas.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is among the members of Congress backing a bill that calls on the United States to invest more in making and distributing COVID-19 vaccines in low- and middle-income countries, said reverse engineering isn’t going to happen fast enough to keep the virus from mutating and spreading further.

“We need to show some hustle. We have to show a sense of urgency, and I’m not seeing that urgency,” he said. “Either we end this pandemic or we muddle our way through.”

Campaigners argue the meager amount of vaccines available to poorer countries through donations, COVAX and purchases suggests the Western-dominated pharmaceutical industry is broken.

“The enemy to these corporations is losing their potential profit down the line,” Joia Mukherjee, chief medical officer of the global health nonprofit Partners in Health, said. “The enemy isn’t the virus, the enemy isn’t suffering.”

Back in Cape Town, the promise of using mRNA technology against other diseases motivates the young scientists.

“The excitement is around learning how we harness mRNA technology to develop a COVID-19 vaccine,” Caryn Fenner, Afrigen’s technical director, said. But more important, Fenner said, “is not only using the mRNA platform for COVID, but for beyond COVID.”

Cheng reported from London; Hinnant reported from Paris.
 
This all seems to be for show as these countries don't have the technology and support to pull this off.

This pandemic has shown the glaring disparities that exists in the world. We're fortunate to live where we live!

The amount of vaccine that ended up in the garbage here could have vaccinated a small country.
 
This all seems to be for show as these countries don't have the technology and support to pull this off.

This pandemic has shown the glaring disparities that exists in the world. We're fortunate to live where we live!

The amount of vaccine that ended up in the garbage here could have vaccinated a small country.
South Africa does have the tech & support; I've dealt with Biotechs there. Big question is can they unlock the "magic" of scale up.
 
Nice up to date summary of what we know, and don't know about the Omicron Variant...

Omicron: What We Know About the New Coronavirus Variant

Omicron: What We Know About the New Coronavirus Variant

In just a few weeks since its discovery, Omicron has turned out to be highly transmissible and less susceptible to vaccines than other variants.

What is the Omicron variant?​

First identified in Botswana and South Africa in November, this new iteration of the coronavirus has prompted concern among scientists and public health officials because it carries an unusually high number of mutations that make it more transmissible and less susceptible to existing vaccines.

On Nov. 26, the World Health Organization designated Omicron a “variant of concern” and warned that the global risks posed by it were “very high,” despite what officials described as a multitude of uncertainties. Since then, the variant has been identified in nearly 60 countries, according to the W.H.O., on every continent except Antarctica. At the beginning of December, a California resident who returned home from South Africa was identified as the first American infected with Omicron. Officials have since detected the variant in 27 states.

What do we know about Omicron’s presence in the U.S.?​

It’s too early to say how widespread the variant will become in the United States. But experts like Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cautioned that the number is likely to markedly increase in the coming weeks.

On Dec. 10, the C.D.C. released a report on the first 43 cases identified in the United States. Only about one-third of those infected with Omicron had traveled internationally in the two weeks before testing positive or developing symptoms. That finding indicated that Omicron was already spreading within the United States from person to person.

The study also offered early hints of how well the variant can overcome vaccination and immunity from previous infections. The majority of people infected with Omicron — 34 individuals — were fully vaccinated when they developed symptoms or tested positive for Covid. Fourteen had received a booster dose as well, while six had previously been infected with the coronavirus.

Only one of the 43 people required hospitalization, and none died. That doesn’t necessary mean that Omicron is mild compared to other variants. For one thing, the sample was too small to be representative. What’s more, young adults under 40 accounted for most of the cases. Older people are at far higher risk of severe Covid.

Should we be worried?​

The discovery of Omicron prompted swift responses from governments worldwide. A number of countries banned flights from southern Africa, or — like Israel, Japan and Morocco — barring entry of foreign travelers altogether.

Many public health experts criticized the move, arguing that Omicron had been around for weeks and had likely spread to many countries undetected. Once researchers began looking for Omicron around the world, that proved to be true.

On Dec. 9, President Biden further tightened restrictions for international travelers coming to the country.

In the first days after Omicron’s discovery, scientists could not say much about Omicron’s threat. They could see that it had mutations shown in other variants to speed up their transmission and allow them to partially evade immune responses. But they had to wait for more evidence to emerge to get a clearer picture of its nature.

Within a few weeks, early results of studies started coming to light. While some uncertainties remained, this evidence made it clear that Omicron poses a serious threat worldwide. “It rules out some of the rosier futures,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Does Omicron spread faster than other variants?​

Epidemiologists will need weeks to work out just how well Omicron spreads compared to other variants. There are many ways in which a mediocre variant may appear to be much better at getting from host to host. For example, a few random superspreader events can give the illusion that a variant is inherently more contagious.

The evidence so far does indicate that Omicron spreads faster than other variants — even Delta, which until now was the fastest spreading variant yet found. The earliest evidence came from South Africa, where Omicron rapidly grew to dominance in one province after another. In other countries, researchers have been able to catch Omicron earlier in its upswing, and the picture is the same: Omicron cases are doubling every two or three days — a much shorter time than Delta needed to double.

For a closer look at how well Omicron spreads, British researchers also observed what happened in the households of 121 people who got infected with the variant. They found that Omicron is 3.2 times more likely to cause a household infection than Delta.

Researchers do not yet know why Omicron spreads so readily. One possibility is that it can invade cells more readily; other possibilities include an ability to multiply once inside cells.

Does immunity from previous infections stop Omicron?​

Not very well. One reason that the Omicron-driven surge in South Africa was so surprising is that the country had already experienced extensive waves of Covid caused by earlier variants. As the result, the majority of South Africans had been infected at some point in the pandemic. Despite that immunity, a large number of South Africans have become infected once more with Omicron.

British researchers found similar results in a study they published on Dec. 10. They found that many people with Omicron had already had survived Covid. The researchers estimated that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is about five times greater than that for other variants.

This ability to evade immune defenses is probably part of the explanation for why Omicron cases are doubling so quickly. While other variants are getting knocked out by antibodies, Omicron is succeeding in infecting more cells — making it more successful at getting into more people.

How much protection do vaccines provide?​

When Omicron surfaced in South Africa, only 30 percent of the country’s had been vaccinated. That low vaccination rate made it difficult to determine how effective vaccines were against Omicron. Researchers at vaccine companies and academic labs quickly launched laboratory studies to get some clues.

They mixed antibodies from vaccinated people with Omicron viruses in Petri dishes of human cells. Then they waited to see how well the antibodies blocked the viruses from replicating.

The first batch of experiments came to the same basic conclusion: Antibodies from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were much less successful at stopping Omicron than they were against earlier variants. But people who got a third booster shot produced much higher levels of antibodies, which do a better job fighting Omicron.

Early epidemiological studies arrived at similar conclusions. In Britain, researchers found that after six months, two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine provided no protection at all from infection from Omicron. Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech had an effectiveness of just 34 percent. But a Pfizer-BioNTech booster had an effectiveness of 75 percent against infection.

These results have reinvigorated vaccination efforts and spurred widespread booster campaigns in many countries to prepare for Omicron surges in the weeks to come.

Can vaccines reduce the severity of Covid?​

Scientists strongly suspect this will be the case, but they need more direct evidence to know for sure.

In addition to producing antibodies to coronaviruses, the vaccines also stimulate the growth of T cells that help fight the disease. T cells learn to recognize when other cells are infected with coronaviruses and then destroy them, slowing the infection. The mutations that allow Omicron to evade antibodies are not expected to let it escape the recognition of T cells.

If this turns out to be the case, scientists expect that Omicron will be very good at causing infections in vaccinated people, but will be much less likely to advance to severe disease. The result would be more mild to moderate cases, with fewer hospitalizations. Boosters will likely be even more effective at preventing severe disease.

How bad will a Covid case caused by Omicron be?​

The early Omicron cases raised hopes that the variant might cause milder disease than other variants. But it’s too soon to know if that’s true.

In South Africa, where Omicron created its first known surge, doctors reported seeing fewer severe cases than in earlier waves of Covid. In fact, they often only became aware that their patients were infected with the coronavirus after they were admitted for other conditions.

But a large fraction of the patients South African doctors were seeing were younger. They were therefore much less likely to have severe Covid than older people. Likewise, in Europe the earliest cases of Omicron involved people who had traveled from southern Africa. These travelers tended to be younger and healthy, reducing their risk of severe disease.

Before we can know whether Omicron is milder than other variants, epidemiologists will have to wait for more people to get infected with Omicron, and then wait several more weeks to see how many of them progress to severe disease.

Is Covid caused by Omicron still treatable?​

Yes. Omicron can evade some monoclonal antibodies, but GSK has reported that its formulation, called sotrovimab, will probably remain effective. Medications that rein in dangerous inflammation, such as dexamethasone, will also work.

Merck, Pfizer and other companies are developing antiviral pills against Covid, and while they have yet to test the pills against Omicron, there’s good reason to expect them to work. Many of Omicron’s mutations are in the gene for a surface protein called spike, which is the target of antibodies. But antiviral pills like molnupiravir target other proteins that are mostly unchanged in Omicron.

What will Omicron do over the next few months?​

Researchers are creating mathematical models to figure out what Omicron will do in the months to come. These models, by necessity, are based on assumptions about the variant, and those assumptions may need to be altered as more evidence comes to light. But scientists can already see that Omicron is very transmissible and adept at evading immune defenses.

Researchers now expect Omicron to become dominant in many countries by the end of the year. It may then go on to create a huge wave of cases in the weeks that follow. Even if Omicron does turn out to be milder, it could still push hospitals to their limit. A smaller fraction of Omicron cases may require hospitalization, but if the number of Omicron cases is much bigger than in previous surges, there will still be more seriously ill patients to treat.

But disease projections are not carved in stone. The variables can change if more people get vaccinated and practice safety measures in public like social distancing and mask-wearing that help contain the spread. Boosters will create an even stronger wall of defense.

Some governments are already taking further actions to fight Omicron. Denmark, for example, sent students home on Dec. 10, closed bars and took other measures to reduce crowds. And Britain has reimposed several measures, and encouraged citizens to work from home.

Why is it called Omicron?​

When the W.H.O. began to name emerging variants of the coronavirus, they turned to the Greek alphabet — Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and so on — to make them easier to describe. The first “variant of concern,” Alpha, was identified in Britain in late 2020, soon followed by Beta in South Africa.

But veterans of American sorority and fraternity life might have noticed the system has skipped the next two letters in the alphabetical order: Nu and Xi.

But veterans of American sorority and fraternity life might have noticed the system has skipped the next two letters in the alphabetical order: Nu and Xi.

Officials thought Nu would be too easily confused with “new,” but the next letter, Xi, is a bit more complicated. W.H.O. officials said it was a common last name, and therefore potentially confusing. Some noted that it is also the name of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

A spokesman for the W.H.O. said the organization’s policy was designed to avoid “causing offense to any cultural, social, national, regional, professional, or ethnic groups.”

Next in line? Omicron.
 
As we learned early on in this country, mathematical models can be way off.

The way things are going in upstate NY and Michigan, we should remain cautious.
 
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