movetheboat
Well-Known Angler
they should stick to banking
The COVID-19 Science and Medicine Question Thread
- Thread starter Roccus7
- Start date
Important Unknowns Regarding the Pfizer COVID Vaccine.
Don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but scientists are cynics by nature. While watching the news last night there was a blurb about the Russian COVID-19 vaccine which is also claimed to be a game changer, something that's overstatement, but that's a different discussion. What they did claim was to have "longer lasting immunity than the Pfizer vaccine". THAT statement activated the Klaxons in my brain.
In all the hype the last few days there has been no mention about how long the immunity of the Pfizer vaccine lasts, so I've been nosing around the internet today to find out what's the deal. Here's what I found out.
The >90% effectivity rate of the vaccine is based on "Preliminary Data" something we were all told. Well here are the limitations of "Preliminary Data."
Don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but scientists are cynics by nature. While watching the news last night there was a blurb about the Russian COVID-19 vaccine which is also claimed to be a game changer, something that's overstatement, but that's a different discussion. What they did claim was to have "longer lasting immunity than the Pfizer vaccine". THAT statement activated the Klaxons in my brain.
In all the hype the last few days there has been no mention about how long the immunity of the Pfizer vaccine lasts, so I've been nosing around the internet today to find out what's the deal. Here's what I found out.
The >90% effectivity rate of the vaccine is based on "Preliminary Data" something we were all told. Well here are the limitations of "Preliminary Data."
- Since the Phase III Trial is only months old, we do not, and will continue not to know, just how long this immunity is effective. Immunity is a "real time" event so we won't really know exactly how long it last until we have the time to figure that out. Pfizer will be constantly evaluating this, but it's something they are watching. Hopefully this time will be measured in years, not months. If it is a short-lived immunity, then look for 2nd generation vaccines built for longevity, not for speed.
- The data needs to be analyzed and parsed in terms of how age, and underlying immunological and medical conditions impact the vaccine. Answering these questions may necessitate more Phase III Trials aimed specifically to answer these type of questions. Depending on these findings, there could be future variations for vaccines, like the current "High Dose" flu vaccines for folks over 65.
Matts
Angler
Three thoughts.
-On cold storage, I would think an insulated "box" and daily shipments of dry ice would be more feasible than producing thousands of super-coolers.
-There is a real risk that many will refuse to receive the vaccine, for a wide variety of reasons.
-Even with best case roll out projections, there is no plan, as I understand it, to get a sizable percentage of Americans inoculated until summer 2021. Until then, many refuse to acknowledge that Covid is a real problem. Many lack the discipline for continued safety practices that had it under control for months, as demonstrated by record daily cases and hospitalizations. The numbers will soon be 200,000 new cases a day.
-Winter is coming....
-On cold storage, I would think an insulated "box" and daily shipments of dry ice would be more feasible than producing thousands of super-coolers.
-There is a real risk that many will refuse to receive the vaccine, for a wide variety of reasons.
-Even with best case roll out projections, there is no plan, as I understand it, to get a sizable percentage of Americans inoculated until summer 2021. Until then, many refuse to acknowledge that Covid is a real problem. Many lack the discipline for continued safety practices that had it under control for months, as demonstrated by record daily cases and hospitalizations. The numbers will soon be 200,000 new cases a day.
-Winter is coming....
Great minds think alike. Although I haven't seen exact details, I heard on the news that Pfizer has developed and is procuring storage boxes that can keep 1000 doses frozen for 10 days. Would assume they're dry ice boxes...
Got the anti shingles Zostamax vaccine a few years back. Last year my doc recommended I get the two vaccination Shinglex vaccine which supposedly has twice the effectiveness which I completed during this pandemic. I believe this china virus vaccine(s) will jump through similar hoops.
More good news, especially since the Moderna vaccine can be stored in a normal freezer. They must have found a better way to stabilize their Lipid Nanoparticles, better than Pfizer did. Both vaccines use LNPs to deliver messenger RNA to cells. Once the mRNA gets into a person's cells, it gets to the ribosomes where proteins are made. These mRNA sequences instruct the vaccine recipients cells to produce the COVID-19 Spike protein and when these proteins are released into the blood stream, the recipient's immune system recognizes them as foreign and mounts a full-scale immune response, including protective antibody manufacture.
pressherald.com/2020/11/16/2nd-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-early-success-in-u-s-tests-2/
By LAURAN NEERGAARDAP Medical WriterNovember 16, 2020
For the second time this month, there’s promising news from a COVID-19 vaccine candidate: Moderna said Monday its shots provide strong protection, a dash of hope against the grim backdrop of coronavirus surges in the U.S. and around the world.
Moderna said its vaccine appears to be 94.5% effective, according to preliminary data from the company’s still ongoing study. A week ago, competitor Pfizer Inc. announced its own COVID-19 vaccine appeared similarly effective — news that puts both companies on track to seek permission within weeks for emergency use in the U.S.
Dr. Stephen Hoge, Moderna’s president, welcomed the “really important milestone” but said having similar results from two different companies is what’s most reassuring.
“That should give us all hope that actually a vaccine is going to be able to stop this pandemic and hopefully get us back to our lives,” Hoge told The Associated Press.
“It won’t be Moderna alone that solves this problem. It’s going to require many vaccines” to meet the global demand, he added.
A vaccine can’t come fast enough, as virus cases topped 11 million in the U.S. over the weekend — 1 million of them recorded in just the past week. The pandemic has killed more than 1.3 million people worldwide, more than 245,000 of them in the U.S.
Still, if the Food and Drug Administration allows emergency use of Moderna’s or Pfizer’s candidates, there will be limited, rationed supplies before the end of the year. Both require people to get two shots, several weeks apart. Moderna expects to have about 20 million doses, earmarked for the U.S., by the end of 2020. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech expect to have about 50 million doses globally by year’s end.
Moderna’s vaccine, created with the National Institutes of Health, is being studied in 30,000 volunteers who received either the real vaccination or a dummy shot. On Sunday, an independent monitoring board broke the code to examine 95 infections that were recorded starting two weeks after volunteers’ second dose — and discovered all but five illnesses occurred in participants who got the placebo.
The study is continuing, and Moderna acknowledged the protection rate might change as more COVID-19 infections are detected and added to the calculations. Also, it’s too soon to know how long protection lasts. Both cautions apply to Pfizer’s vaccine as well.
But Moderna’s independent monitors reported some additional, promising tidbits: All 11 severe COVID-19 cases were among placebo recipients, and there were no significant safety concerns.
The main side effects were fatigue, muscle aches and injection-site pain after the vaccine’s second dose, at rates that Hoge characterized as more common than with flu shots but on par with others such as shingles vaccine.
Moderna shares rocketed higher on the announcement and appeared to be headed for an all-time high Monday. The Cambridge, Massachusetts, company’s vaccine is among 11 candidates in late-stage testing around the world, four of them in huge studies in the U.S.
Both Moderna’s shots and the Pfizer-BioNTech candidate are so-called mRNA vaccines, a brand-new technology. They aren’t made with the coronavirus itself, meaning there’s no chance anyone could catch it from the shots. Instead, the vaccine contains a piece of genetic code that trains the immune system to recognize the spiked protein on the surface of the virus. NO you AP Nincompoop!! The genetic code forces the recipient's protein synthesis system to make the spike protein which activates the immune system to make the antibodies!! The immune system doesn't need any training, it needs a stimulus!!
The strong results were a surprise. Scientists have warned for months that any COVID-19 shot may be only as good as flu vaccines, which are about 50% effective.
Another steep challenge: distributing doses that must be kept very cold. Both the Moderna and Pfizer shots are frozen but at different temperatures. Moderna announced Monday that once thawed, its doses can last longer in a refrigerator than initially thought, up to 30 days. Pfizer’s shots require long-term storage at ultra-cold temperatures.
Moderna says early tests show coronavirus vaccine appears almost 95% effective
By LAURAN NEERGAARDAP Medical WriterNovember 16, 2020
For the second time this month, there’s promising news from a COVID-19 vaccine candidate: Moderna said Monday its shots provide strong protection, a dash of hope against the grim backdrop of coronavirus surges in the U.S. and around the world.
Moderna said its vaccine appears to be 94.5% effective, according to preliminary data from the company’s still ongoing study. A week ago, competitor Pfizer Inc. announced its own COVID-19 vaccine appeared similarly effective — news that puts both companies on track to seek permission within weeks for emergency use in the U.S.
Dr. Stephen Hoge, Moderna’s president, welcomed the “really important milestone” but said having similar results from two different companies is what’s most reassuring.
“That should give us all hope that actually a vaccine is going to be able to stop this pandemic and hopefully get us back to our lives,” Hoge told The Associated Press.
“It won’t be Moderna alone that solves this problem. It’s going to require many vaccines” to meet the global demand, he added.
A vaccine can’t come fast enough, as virus cases topped 11 million in the U.S. over the weekend — 1 million of them recorded in just the past week. The pandemic has killed more than 1.3 million people worldwide, more than 245,000 of them in the U.S.
Still, if the Food and Drug Administration allows emergency use of Moderna’s or Pfizer’s candidates, there will be limited, rationed supplies before the end of the year. Both require people to get two shots, several weeks apart. Moderna expects to have about 20 million doses, earmarked for the U.S., by the end of 2020. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech expect to have about 50 million doses globally by year’s end.
Moderna’s vaccine, created with the National Institutes of Health, is being studied in 30,000 volunteers who received either the real vaccination or a dummy shot. On Sunday, an independent monitoring board broke the code to examine 95 infections that were recorded starting two weeks after volunteers’ second dose — and discovered all but five illnesses occurred in participants who got the placebo.
The study is continuing, and Moderna acknowledged the protection rate might change as more COVID-19 infections are detected and added to the calculations. Also, it’s too soon to know how long protection lasts. Both cautions apply to Pfizer’s vaccine as well.
But Moderna’s independent monitors reported some additional, promising tidbits: All 11 severe COVID-19 cases were among placebo recipients, and there were no significant safety concerns.
The main side effects were fatigue, muscle aches and injection-site pain after the vaccine’s second dose, at rates that Hoge characterized as more common than with flu shots but on par with others such as shingles vaccine.
Moderna shares rocketed higher on the announcement and appeared to be headed for an all-time high Monday. The Cambridge, Massachusetts, company’s vaccine is among 11 candidates in late-stage testing around the world, four of them in huge studies in the U.S.
Both Moderna’s shots and the Pfizer-BioNTech candidate are so-called mRNA vaccines, a brand-new technology. They aren’t made with the coronavirus itself, meaning there’s no chance anyone could catch it from the shots. Instead, the vaccine contains a piece of genetic code that trains the immune system to recognize the spiked protein on the surface of the virus. NO you AP Nincompoop!! The genetic code forces the recipient's protein synthesis system to make the spike protein which activates the immune system to make the antibodies!! The immune system doesn't need any training, it needs a stimulus!!
The strong results were a surprise. Scientists have warned for months that any COVID-19 shot may be only as good as flu vaccines, which are about 50% effective.
Another steep challenge: distributing doses that must be kept very cold. Both the Moderna and Pfizer shots are frozen but at different temperatures. Moderna announced Monday that once thawed, its doses can last longer in a refrigerator than initially thought, up to 30 days. Pfizer’s shots require long-term storage at ultra-cold temperatures.
Last edited:
and another source>
www.bbc.com
Moderna is closer to your neck of the woods !
Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection
The results add to growing confidence that vaccination can end the pandemic.
www.bbc.com
Moderna is closer to your neck of the woods !
Even if NY is delayed until after the election, the reality of the situation is that few, if any will get either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine until after Jan 1...
Health care providers first, then 1st responders
It's pretty simple. They look at the entire cohort in the clinical study to see "who" got COVID.
Here's a simple example, dumbed down a lot because I'm far from fluent in statistical mumbo jumbo. Let's say 100 people were diagnosed with a COVID infection during the study and 95 of them received the placebo, but only 5 of the folks who got the actual vaccine came down with COVID. That would mean that the vaccine was 95% effective in the study.
Nope, it's SIMPLE, but I took some liberties in the original post to keep it really dumbed down!! Let me expand the discussion. Let's say 30,000 people in the study, and 15,000 each got saline and 15,000 got the vaccine. Now at the end of study 105 people got COVID and it turns out 100 of them got the saline and 5 of the vaccinated folks got COVID. Based on the infection rate of 100/15000 in the placebo group, if the vaccine didn't work at all, 100 folks from vaccinated group should have gotten sick. Therefore the vaccine protected 95 people out of 100, making it 95% effective.
Did you catch anything?
Aye, there's the rub, we just don't know at this time. It's something that "time will tell" and can only be answered by the passage of time.
The only scientific analysis I can relate about the vaccines is as follows. All of the vaccines instruct the body to produce the spike protein and then the recipient's immune system kicks in and prepares to do war with that foreign protein including antibody production. The spike protein is something that has to be extremely "conserved" since it is the key that unlocks the host cell to allow the viral invasion, and therefore not prone to mutations that would change its shape or function; if the virus mutates the spike protein and it can't bind to the cell, that mutation would not be propagated because the virus couldn't get into the cell to replicate.
OK I'm rambling, so let's skip to the chase, the current crop of vaccines will help a recipient get a healthy array of spike protein antibodies, something that should be resistant to viral mutation. How long lasting both naturally-induced immunity and vaccine-induced immunity will last is something that is currently unknown. It's one of those "real time" questions that only the passage of time will tell us...
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