The COVID-19 Science and Medicine Question Thread

Chinacat said:
I agree.
Roccus-
Is there any specific formula of how long it will take for the #'s to rebound back up again?
Is it even possible to calculate.
It does seem logical that if it hasn't disappeared and people are mingling again the #'s will go back up?
Click to expand...

If there's a rebound, we should start seeing the infection numbers start to jump up in 2-3 weeks. Any increase needs to be examined with a few grains of salt. Since states are ramping up testing, we may see a jump regardless of a rebound, so the data need to be normalized by something like infections per 100 tested so we know we're seeing a true rebound, not just an artifact of increased testing...
 
Hadn't updated this in a week. Maine's "Plateau" turned out to be a shelf on a peak. What's driving the increase? Two things, breakouts in living and work facilities, and because of cases popping up, increased testing in those types of facilities.

Although the impact is yet to be seen, we just relaxed some restrictions in the counties with very low infection numbers. It will be interesting to see if we start seeing jumps in the infection rates as a result of loosening things up.

ActiveCovidCases051120-1-e1589235851161.jpg
 
During an experiment conducted by the Japanese audiovisual group NHK, in collaboration with experts, a fluorescent paint was applied to the hands of a man dining with a group of 10 people to show the spread of the coronavirus. In 30 minutes, the painting was transferred to each individual and was on the face of 3 people.

 
Ok here’s another one on testing

positive test for the virus after moderately sever symptoms
2 week illness 5 days illness free then another test
Still positive
7 days later negative
14 days later took Two different anti body test At the hospital
Both negative for anti bodies

So much for testing
 
This is the entire Nova episode that aired last night. I've started it at the point where they discuss Wuhan reopening and what everyone has to do to allow contact tracing. The competing Apple and Google cellphone technologies were also interesting.

 
TonySmjc said:
Ok here’s another one on testing

positive test for the virus after moderately sever symptoms
2 week illness 5 days illness free then another test
Still positive
7 days later negative
14 days later took Two different anti body test At the hospital
Both negative for anti bodies

So much for testing
Click to expand...

this wasn’t me but a very close friend and I’ve seen all the paper work
so it’s a true account
 
Had to go in for a check up today
It’s been a minute

while I was there I asked the Dr. about his anti body test
( the one my wife took)
Hers went to quest just like mine

he had to draw blood anyway so I said
Go ahead and draw another one for anti bodies too
Long story short
North well also is testing so I said I got lots draw one for them too

the north well test isn’t just a positive or negative
But is done on a number rating system
the exact difference is above my paygrade

but goes like this
If a positive is >1 and you get .99 on the quest test
Your negative
On the north well test you’d get .99

supposedly showing signs of either increasing or diminishing antibodies
 
TonySmjc said:
but goes like this
If a positive is >1 and you get .99 on the quest test
Your negative
On the north well test you’d get .99

supposedly showing signs of either increasing or diminishing antibodies
Click to expand...

You want a scientific explanation or do you want another soap box to get atop and rant? If it's the latter, I'll remain silent.
 
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No I’m always interested in your scientific views

all I know is it’s a blood draw test
That test for the same long term anti body i gg?
As quest
And as opposed to positive and negative it gives a number rating
And it’s relatively new
 
His family of 4 also has 3 positives and one negative
Which he thinks is very strange
Him
Wife and one daughter yes
One daughter no
Daughters in constant contact
 
So you want an explanation of how qualitative antibody tests are calibrated or are you looking for another thing to rant about? Seems it's the latter by virtue of the tone of your posts.
 
Nope your reading something into it that’s not there
i only posted it here because I thought the existence of yet another test ( that I was told was brand new)
Would be right up your alley



the difference between the test would be great
More important the difference between
The straight positive/ vs the calibrated test

the accuracy of the north well test vs the quest test
Would be great information
 
Well BOTH Quest and Northwell use the test from Abbott and they're both negative at 0.99 or 1.00 S/CO. Northwell is misusing the test in that the only thing that's supposed to be reported is POSITIVE or NEGATIVE per the package insert. I could provide you a copy if you would care to read it. In case you're interested the cutoff for a positive is NOT 1.0, but 1.4 or greater for this COVID antibody test. Many qualitative tests including some Abbott ones use a cutoff value of 1.00. If Northwell has decided to deviate from that, it's another example of them misusing the test. Since the test is not an-FDA approved In Vitro Diagnostic, Northwell can monkey with things without being "illegal", but they're dancing with the devil there.

This is a qualitative test and not a measure of antibody, so a signal of 2 doesn't even suggest that that patient has 1/2 the antibody of a patient with a signal of 4.0.
 
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Sorry I wasn’t specific
I didn’t mean the cut off was actually 1
I was using it as and example I should have said greater than x
all the numbers were just examples

What Is accurate is that they arnt simply using positive and negative but an actually value I don’t know at what point they just say negative , if they ever do

I believe you on the package insert

so if 1.4 is a positive
And 1.39 is a negative
While I understand it’s not a percentage of anti bodies
Would not 1.2 to 1.39 indicate the presence of some antibodies and isn’t that a better measure than just a straight cutoff number ?

and more out of curiosity ,dancing with the devil as in
Giving ppl a false sense of security that they have some form of anti body immunity when I’m fact they dont?
And if that’s correct is 1.30 really that much worse than 1.4
How low can it go before it’s just garbage information or is 1.4 the drop dead number
Speculation on their purpose for doing it this way as opposed to a straight plus/minus
 
Test was designed to report a NEGATIVE or POSITIVE result; the numeric value is irrelevant. That's why I'm extremely concerned that Northwell has chosen to provide a value; it is assay malpractice plain and simple.

The cutoff is determined by testing hundreds of negative patients to develop a "Normal Distribution". Then you start running known positives, as many as you can get your hands on. IF the Assay Gods are smiling favorably upon you, the signals of the 2 populations will be separated by at least 5 Std Deviations of the Normal Population's. If the Gods really love you, it will be 9 Std Devs or higher, this is Assay Nirvana. At that level, the odds of a false result are minimized.

If the number of Std Deviations is less than 5, you start working with the formulation to get better signal separation between the Normal and Sick populations. After you think you've got the cutoff correct you validate that by testing sensitivity and specificity by running samples that you know could be difficult to detect to test your sensitivity and samples that could give you a false positive to test your specificity. Finally you get a hold of timed samples from a patient that were taken over a few weeks that also have corresponding PCR (diagnostic tests) so you can see if and when the person developed antibodies. Hit any snags during this testing, then it's reformulation time.

NEVER in this process do you correlate the amount of antibody to the signal. There are 100s of reasons why not, but suffice it to say that a QUANTITATIVE Antibody Assay is a major, complex challenge since you may have hundreds of COVID-19 antibodies, each with a vastly different activity. For example if you have 10 mg of low reactivity AbX and 1 ug of high reactivity AbY, you might think your reaction is due to AbX, when it's really AbY driving the reactivity.

A quantitative Ab assay has no diagnostic value when trying to determine if someone is positive or negative. However it is crucial for determining which patients have high-reactivity antibodies for a possible treatment for others. Then you begin testing for reactivity for specific epitopes by linear dilutions, a very labor-intensive testing protocol, but essential to determine donors that can fulfill the need for plasma donations with adequate titers for treating other patients.

There should be no confusion regarding the amount of antibody and the protection you have. The assay only determines IF the person has a level of COVID-19 indicative of a former infection. It says nothing about the efficacy of these antibodies, especially since nobody at this time knows what antibodies and what titer are needed to prevent COVID-19. As the vaccine candidates go through clinical trials, these data will be generated, along with the studies transfusing plasma from cured COVID-19 patients into sick patients.
 
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