I would disagree with several of your assertions. 1) are you seriously going to argue that a 28 inch size limit is too high? Absolutely for my area!! Do you think it's "appropriate" for my killing of 12 - 25 bass for each one I keep??? That's what the historical numbers say if I use a 10% mortality rate, which is lower than ASFMC uses. That's why Maine had a slot to begin with.
using that logic we shouldn't have any size limits. Do you think that would reduce or increase the total mortality? One keeper a day at any size, not that I'm advocating that, would reduce mortality. Hey, NY has a smaller size for fish above the GW Bridge, not that any of these fish in "The Heights" would ever swim down to check the Intrepid, and the MD/VA boys have a field day in the Chesapeake. Imagine the carnage if they were held to 28"
Unattainable sizes definitely does dissuade people from fishing. Just ask any tackle shop if the gradual decline in striped bass availability has affected their revenues, the unanimous answer will be yes. Sharking has virtually gone off a cliff with the new mako limits. So glad you opened Pandora's Box on this one. We're talking about sharks, which along with their cousins rays, are just about the ONLY finned thing that you can get a 100% sex identification on with a simple, and foolproof visual examination. What the brain dead NOAA folks should have done is found out at what length do males mature and have claspers and follow the lead of deer managers, setting the size limit there, but only allowing "Claspered Makos" to be taken. This one is priceless, statisticians who never saw a shark set a ludicrous ruling because their numbers said so without any regard to chondrichthyes anatomy or physiology.
Slots are tools, whether they are "excellent" or not depends on the problem you're trying to solve. They do nothing to decrease overall mortality and in fact in certain fisheries, like summer flounder they can increase mortality. Outside of MD in the Chesapeake bay, there are no "equivalency" plans in the ASMFC's fishery management plan for striped bass. The FMP would have to be amended (a very lengthy process)before any kind of slot limit would be permissible. Maine did have one, but since ASMFC didn't recognize any reduction in take because of the circle hooks and no more than 2 trebles per lure initiatives weren't didn't earn us any credit, they decided not to pursue it any longer. Once again, this is something they should come up with, but it does need to be regionally aligned.
50.1% probability is the standard that ASMFC uses, IOW more likely than not. It is based on the Case of NRDC vs Daley where the courts held that to be in compliance with the Magnesson Stevens Act FMPs must have a more likely than not probability of achieving their target. While it is arguable whether or not the MSA even applies to the ASMFC, that is the standard they choose to use. True enough. Someday one of the tree hugging groups will hit this one out of the park in court. That being said, would you bet your life's savings on a 50.1% chance of success???