Fluke Season 2026 Analysis

hartattack

Angler
I lifted these 2 posts from the NJ website where originally posted. I'm hopeful the NY comments are productive and the arguments can be used effectively when meeting with fed regulators next year... thx
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Broad Bill
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[/td][td]Assessment of 2026 fluke season and status of fishery


My assessment of the fluke season and state of the fishery. I was on a fluke trip near the end of the season with a 10-man crew. The captain travelled at minimum 50 – 60 miles making easily fifty or more drops throughout the day. We fished typical fall big fish areas, marked loads of bait and squid which were being spit up by the massive amount of shorts we were catching. Westerly wind, 5-10 mph, 1-2 ft. seas, perfect conditions.

Net result, 20 keepers for 10 fares and easily over 600 shorts, an unimaginable 30:1 short to keeper ratio this time of year. One angler alone had between 70-80 shorts for the day! The point is the bottom in every spot we went was literally paved with 1-2 yr.-old fish, some less than 12 inches. The 16” to 17” fish are 3-4 yr.-old fish depending on gender. Never in my life have I seen so many juvenile age class fish in the fall in areas they shouldn’t be. The same short to keeper ratio is being experienced in NY, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, everywhere up and down the coast basically. Question I posted on the site about a month ago needs to be answered by the regulators responsible for the stock, “What happens to these fish during the winter months and why do these massive bodies of younger age class fish NEVER return the following season as keepers”. Until they can answer that question, there’s simply no reason to believe the current regulations are benefitting the long term health of the stock or will the trend change since it’s basically been the same for the last two and a half decades. Ever since NMFS insisted on using size minimums to manage fluke and commercials were given the exclusive benefit of smaller 14” size minimums. The last point is key in my opinion as the 14” minimum was used to dictate minimum mesh sizes for commercial operators, whether diamond or square.

It’s obvious NMFS didn’t use size minimums to manage the stock, they used them to shift a substantial portion of the stock from recreational harvest to the exclusive harvest of commercials. At 1 – 2 years of age, most fluke are of a size where they’ll slip through the nets as long as they’re not plugged. Everything dies when the nets are plugged. When fluke get to the size we saw in the summer and fall, they no longer will slip through the mesh sizes commercials are allowed so any fish that goes in the net will be killed by either being harvested or thrown back dead. Before there was a substantial offshore winter commercial fishery, we never saw these trends. Today with the prices larger fluke get back at the docks, commercials target those older age groups which can bring anywhere from 2 to 4 times market value and kill an insane amount of juvenile fish in the process. See the below.

Wholesale Price Breakdown by Size
Size Classification Average Weight / Specs Estimated Wholesale Price Range (per lb.) Market Notes
Small Under 1.5 lbs. $2.00 – $2.75 Primarily sold to high-volume processors or ethnic whole-fish markets.

Medium 1.5 to 2.5 lbs. $3.00 – $4.00 The most abundant commercial class; highly sought after by local filleting operations.

Large 2.5 to 4 lbs. $4.25 – $5.50 Commands a premium for thicker fillet cuts; ideal for standard restaurant plating.

Jumbo ("Doormats") Over 4 lbs. $5.75 – $7.50+ Top tier pricing; often diverted to white-tablecloth restaurants and sushi-grade markets.

The larger specimens are being removed from the stock and the younger age classes representing the future of the fishery are being killed in the process of larger more valuable fish being harvested by the commercial sector. It’s precisely why we NEVER see these massive amount of 1 – 2 yr. old fish materialize into a robust fishery the following years. And until that problem is addressed, the stock will become weaker and weaker every season. Does anyone think North Carolina boats are steaming up here in the winter to catch fish that’ll fetch $2 /lb. when they can toss them back dead and fill their holes with fish with 2 – 3 times greater value. The winter offshore fishery and commercial regulations have caused irreparable damage to this stock which gets worse every year. Larger fish are disappearing from the southern-most border of the biomass which we’ve been seeing for years. Exactly why more of the commercial harvest comes from northern waters every passing year. Once the northern sector of the Mid-Atlantic stock and southern sector of the GOM stock have been irreparably damaged, the fisheries done. I’ve attached a chart which I’ve shown here before from the 57th stock assessment which compares reported commercial discard levels by operators to independent levels from on board federal observers. The solid black bar is the amount reported by observers, the light blue bar what commercial operators reported. If the disparity was that substantial through 2011 when market prices were less volatile between age classes, imagine what they are today. And also note what the discard levels from on board observers were in the 90’s before NMFS insisted on using size minimums to manage not the stock but the commercial sector’s catch values. When I brought this to the attention of NMFS with previous correspondence, they removed the chart permanently from future stock assessments. It’s no wonder as it answers the questions why these massive bodies of 1-2-year-old age class fish never return he following year.

I’ll leave you with this last thought. If commercials were working the same schools of fish we did on the trip I was on, keeping on average 3 lb. fish and allowed 2,000 lbs. for the trip, they’d harvest approximately 666 fish and based on a 50:1 short to keeper ratio, they’d potentially kill 33,300 juvenile fish in the process. That’s why we never see these fish return once they essentially attain 2 years of age. The stock will never rebound with these regulations.
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Re: Assessment of 2026 fluke season and status of fishery

I'm retired now and was able to target Fluke in 2026 more often than I ever have before. I had a great year quantity-wise but not quality-wise. I always go Scouting b4 the season from shore (until I got correctly called out by Angler Paul so I will now stop) and landed a 19" fluke on my first cast. I then proceeded to catch 2 more Ks and 5 shorts in the 30 minutes i tried in Shark River. Encouraging for sure but when season opened the same spot did NOT produce,,, I learned a dragger cleaned up b4 recreational opener on 5/4. The river produced thru May, June and July but keeper ratio was abysmal. We usually get several 5+ pound river fish during these weeks but not this year. Ocean fluking in Aug and Sept was good but nothing over 26". The bite lasted to the NJ Fluke end date 9/25 and the bite remained INSHORE until the end. Heck we were catching them on Axel Carlson on Friday on Clams when targeting seabass, so u know they're still here, I considered targeting them but the triggerfish and blackfish bycatch when clamming was too good to switch.
BroadBill's assessment is spot on. It explains why we see few doormats now and so many smaller fish. I've heard numerous frustrated Flukers blame global warming that the Fluke have moved North,,,, I put more faith in BroadBill's theory. Last time I fished Nantucket the captain came running out of the wheelhouse to stop me my buddy from throwing back 18" Fluke... "what are u guys doing?",,, "we didn't come up here for these dinks",,,, "it's all we've been catching this year"..... now that the commercial NC Fluke draggers go all the way to Massachusetts u now hear a familiar refrain, the same NJ disappointment but spoken with a Boston accent.
As BroadBill has preached for years now - commercial Fluke fishing during the Spawn must be outlawed!!!
 
something has to change this system is broke the gov't has failed both the rec and comm fishing industries now the only thing they are worried about is audubon society we need to better understand why the ocean is not producing what we saw many years ago when we were young could some of the chemicals that we now use be a bigger reason I don't have that answer but i could assure you neither does anyone who makes these regulations at ASMFC does either
 
Some of what he says makes sense to me, and some of it does not.

Here’s one that doesn't makes too much sense to me………

“now that the commercial NC Fluke draggers go all the way to Massachusetts”

Why do they travel to Massachusetts from North Carolina? Could the lack of fish in NC possibly be due to climate change?? The oceans eco system is changing rapidly due to this. We have all sorts of species that have extended their range to northerly waters. As an example, I have never seen Cobia in our waters until recently. Same for Black Tip, and Spinner sharks. And there are other species as well.

I don’t think there are any easy answers to this. Actually I believe it’s extremely complicated to which nobody has all the answers.
 
Some of what he says makes sense to me, and some of it does not.

Here’s one that doesn't makes too much sense to me………

“now that the commercial NC Fluke draggers go all the way to Massachusetts”

Why do they travel to Massachusetts from North Carolina? Could the lack of fish in NC possibly be due to climate change?? The oceans eco system is changing rapidly due to this. We have all sorts of species that have extended their range to northerly waters. As an example, I have never seen Cobia in our waters until recently. Same for Black Tip, and Spinner sharks. And there are other species as well.

I don’t think there are any easy answers to this. Actually I believe it’s extremely complicated to which nobody has all the answers.
This part makes perfect sense.

“now that the commercial NC Fluke draggers go all the way to Massachusetts”

So it is nets/draggers devastating the fishery up here.
 
This part makes perfect sense.

“now that the commercial NC Fluke draggers go all the way to Massachusetts”

So it is nets/draggers devastating the fishery up here.
That was not the point of my post. The point was that perhaps the reason they had to steam north to Massachusetts to find the fish was that the fish had moved north due to climate change.

This is an unknown but I don’t think commercial Fluke fishing from the NC boats up in Massachusetts had much effect on Fluke fishing this season in NY and NJ.
 
I lifted these 2 posts from the NJ website where originally posted. I'm hopeful the NY comments are productive and the arguments can be used effectively when meeting with fed regulators next year... thx
​
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Old
Yesterday, 10:42 AM
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Broad Bill
Broad Bill is offline

NJFishing.com Ambassador
Join Date: Mar 2023
Posts: 955
[/td][td]Assessment of 2026 fluke season and status of fishery


My assessment of the fluke season and state of the fishery. I was on a fluke trip near the end of the season with a 10-man crew. The captain travelled at minimum 50 – 60 miles making easily fifty or more drops throughout the day. We fished typical fall big fish areas, marked loads of bait and squid which were being spit up by the massive amount of shorts we were catching. Westerly wind, 5-10 mph, 1-2 ft. seas, perfect conditions.

Net result, 20 keepers for 10 fares and easily over 600 shorts, an unimaginable 30:1 short to keeper ratio this time of year. One angler alone had between 70-80 shorts for the day! The point is the bottom in every spot we went was literally paved with 1-2 yr.-old fish, some less than 12 inches. The 16” to 17” fish are 3-4 yr.-old fish depending on gender. Never in my life have I seen so many juvenile age class fish in the fall in areas they shouldn’t be. The same short to keeper ratio is being experienced in NY, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, everywhere up and down the coast basically. Question I posted on the site about a month ago needs to be answered by the regulators responsible for the stock, “What happens to these fish during the winter months and why do these massive bodies of younger age class fish NEVER return the following season as keepers”. Until they can answer that question, there’s simply no reason to believe the current regulations are benefitting the long term health of the stock or will the trend change since it’s basically been the same for the last two and a half decades. Ever since NMFS insisted on using size minimums to manage fluke and commercials were given the exclusive benefit of smaller 14” size minimums. The last point is key in my opinion as the 14” minimum was used to dictate minimum mesh sizes for commercial operators, whether diamond or square.

It’s obvious NMFS didn’t use size minimums to manage the stock, they used them to shift a substantial portion of the stock from recreational harvest to the exclusive harvest of commercials. At 1 – 2 years of age, most fluke are of a size where they’ll slip through the nets as long as they’re not plugged. Everything dies when the nets are plugged. When fluke get to the size we saw in the summer and fall, they no longer will slip through the mesh sizes commercials are allowed so any fish that goes in the net will be killed by either being harvested or thrown back dead. Before there was a substantial offshore winter commercial fishery, we never saw these trends. Today with the prices larger fluke get back at the docks, commercials target those older age groups which can bring anywhere from 2 to 4 times market value and kill an insane amount of juvenile fish in the process. See the below.

Wholesale Price Breakdown by Size
Size Classification Average Weight / Specs Estimated Wholesale Price Range (per lb.) Market Notes
Small Under 1.5 lbs. $2.00 – $2.75 Primarily sold to high-volume processors or ethnic whole-fish markets.

Medium 1.5 to 2.5 lbs. $3.00 – $4.00 The most abundant commercial class; highly sought after by local filleting operations.

Large 2.5 to 4 lbs. $4.25 – $5.50 Commands a premium for thicker fillet cuts; ideal for standard restaurant plating.

Jumbo ("Doormats") Over 4 lbs. $5.75 – $7.50+ Top tier pricing; often diverted to white-tablecloth restaurants and sushi-grade markets.

The larger specimens are being removed from the stock and the younger age classes representing the future of the fishery are being killed in the process of larger more valuable fish being harvested by the commercial sector. It’s precisely why we NEVER see these massive amount of 1 – 2 yr. old fish materialize into a robust fishery the following years. And until that problem is addressed, the stock will become weaker and weaker every season. Does anyone think North Carolina boats are steaming up here in the winter to catch fish that’ll fetch $2 /lb. when they can toss them back dead and fill their holes with fish with 2 – 3 times greater value. The winter offshore fishery and commercial regulations have caused irreparable damage to this stock which gets worse every year. Larger fish are disappearing from the southern-most border of the biomass which we’ve been seeing for years. Exactly why more of the commercial harvest comes from northern waters every passing year. Once the northern sector of the Mid-Atlantic stock and southern sector of the GOM stock have been irreparably damaged, the fisheries done. I’ve attached a chart which I’ve shown here before from the 57th stock assessment which compares reported commercial discard levels by operators to independent levels from on board federal observers. The solid black bar is the amount reported by observers, the light blue bar what commercial operators reported. If the disparity was that substantial through 2011 when market prices were less volatile between age classes, imagine what they are today. And also note what the discard levels from on board observers were in the 90’s before NMFS insisted on using size minimums to manage not the stock but the commercial sector’s catch values. When I brought this to the attention of NMFS with previous correspondence, they removed the chart permanently from future stock assessments. It’s no wonder as it answers the questions why these massive bodies of 1-2-year-old age class fish never return he following year.

I’ll leave you with this last thought. If commercials were working the same schools of fish we did on the trip I was on, keeping on average 3 lb. fish and allowed 2,000 lbs. for the trip, they’d harvest approximately 666 fish and based on a 50:1 short to keeper ratio, they’d potentially kill 33,300 juvenile fish in the process. That’s why we never see these fish return once they essentially attain 2 years of age. The stock will never rebound with these regulations.
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Interesting read. Who is this guy Broad Bill, and what is his background/resume?
 
....
Why do they travel to Massachusetts from North Carolina? ....
Under the federal Summer Flounder Fishery Management Plan managed by NOAA Fisheries and the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, commercial quotas are allocated to states based on historical landing data from the 1980s. [1]

North Carolina holds a massive share of the coastwide commercial quota (often around 20–24% of the entire East Coast allowance).
Because North Carolina boats hold these highly valuable state permits, they are legally allowed to harvest huge quantities of fluke, even if they have to steam hundreds of miles north to where the fish actually live. [1, 2, 3]

Broad Bill is a NJ recreational Fisherman friend of mine who has battled NJ and Fed rec fishing regulations for the last 10 years or so. He uses the statistics provided by Regulators to question decisions they've made. His passion is Fluke and he has authored several papers that have ruffled some Fed feathers. Here's a sample -

"I've been studying this stock, the regulations and the stock's dynamics for more than 10 years. No fishery can survive with a commercial presence that harvests primarily the largest fish (breeders) of the biomass to hike up their catch values while killing massive amounts of juvenile fish in the process. The commercial regulations are destroying the breeding population and mesh sizes are insuring that most 1-2 yr old fluke will die the year they attain 14" to 15" which is why they never return the following year. If this isn't what's happening, we'd be seeing record recruitment numbers, an absolute explosion in the overall size of the biomass and a consistent increase of all age classes and we're not.

This is precisely what happened to the Chesapeake stock (which was destroyed by North Carolina and Virginia commercials), it's been happening to the Mid-Atlantic stock (which in my opinion has been irreparably impaired) and it's well on its way to happening with the Gulf of Maine stock ..."
And here's his opinion on Global Warming affecting fluke -
The appearance of the biomass moving north is in my opinion the disappearance of older age class fish in the southernmost stocks due to commercials targeting and depleting those older age classes causing them to venture further northeast in search of larger fish in places like Massachusetts and the Shoals to fill their quotas and maintain higher catch values. Someone would need to show me a tagging study that supports any such major migration theory based on climate change or anything else. You'll never see returns because dead fluke don't float and commercials won't participate in a tagging program because they know the truth. Otherwise they'd be shouting from the roof tops to have one conducted. There were multiple tens of millions of fluke this year in local (NY / NJ) waters that would dispute the climate change theory. And remember, larger age classes of almost every species will always seek out cooler water temps during their life cycle, fluke are no different. It's been that way forever before climate change was ever heard of.
 
maybe catch and release doesn't work anyone who would take the time to look at what equipment was used in 1980 to now in both comm and rec fishing would know bigger faster boats better electronics better equipment along with environmental degradation would realize these fish should be better regulated maybe larger comm size limit and smaller rec size limit we should not throw back so many fish just to fit into there math problem again this is not science
 
Under the federal Summer Flounder Fishery Management Plan managed by NOAA Fisheries and the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, commercial quotas are allocated to states based on historical landing data from the 1980s. [1]

North Carolina holds a massive share of the coastwide commercial quota (often around 20–24% of the entire East Coast allowance).
Because North Carolina boats hold these highly valuable state permits, they are legally allowed to harvest huge quantities of fluke, even if they have to steam hundreds of miles north to where the fish actually live. [1, 2, 3]

Broad Bill is a NJ recreational Fisherman friend of mine who has battled NJ and Fed rec fishing regulations for the last 10 years or so. He uses the statistics provided by Regulators to question decisions they've made. His passion is Fluke and he has authored several papers that have ruffled some Fed feathers. Here's a sample -

"I've been studying this stock, the regulations and the stock's dynamics for more than 10 years. No fishery can survive with a commercial presence that harvests primarily the largest fish (breeders) of the biomass to hike up their catch values while killing massive amounts of juvenile fish in the process. The commercial regulations are destroying the breeding population and mesh sizes are insuring that most 1-2 yr old fluke will die the year they attain 14" to 15" which is why they never return the following year. If this isn't what's happening, we'd be seeing record recruitment numbers, an absolute explosion in the overall size of the biomass and a consistent increase of all age classes and we're not.

This is precisely what happened to the Chesapeake stock (which was destroyed by North Carolina and Virginia commercials), it's been happening to the Mid-Atlantic stock (which in my opinion has been irreparably impaired) and it's well on its way to happening with the Gulf of Maine stock ..."
And here's his opinion on Global Warming affecting fluke -

The appearance of the biomass moving north is in my opinion the disappearance of older age class fish in the southernmost stocks due to commercials targeting and depleting those older age classes causing them to venture further northeast in search of larger fish in places like Massachusetts and the Shoals to fill their quotas and maintain higher catch values. Someone would need to show me a tagging study that supports any such major migration theory based on climate change or anything else. You'll never see returns because dead fluke don't float and commercials won't participate in a tagging program because they know the truth. Otherwise they'd be shouting from the roof tops to have one conducted. There were multiple tens of millions of fluke this year in local (NY / NJ) waters that would dispute the climate change theory. And remember, larger age classes of almost every species will always seek out cooler water temps during their life cycle, fluke are no different. It's been that way forever before climate change was ever heard of.
Other than…….. “Broad Bill is a NJ recreational Fisherman friend of mine” you haven’t answered the latter part of my question……..”Who is this guy Broad Bill, and what is his background/resume?”
 
I release shorts. Nets do not.
Nets can, and do release shorts.

Even Broad Bill acknowledges that.

“The commercial regulations are destroying the breeding population and mesh sizes are insuring that most 1-2 yr old fluke will die the year they attain 14" to 15" which is why they never return the following year.”
 
Nets can, and do release shorts.

Even Broad Bill acknowledges that.

“The commercial regulations are destroying the breeding population and mesh sizes are insuring that most 1-2 yr old fluke will die the year they attain 14" to 15" which is why they never return the following year.”
So then I should be able to keep a 14 inch fish too.
 

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