The Unpredictable Fluke Season: What's Really Going On?

[george]

This has surely shaped up to be one of the most unpredictable seasons I can recall. We are headed into August, and there are few, if any, fluke being caught in the traditional grounds—Montauk, North Fork, offshore of Long Island, and just about every offshore piece that anglers hunt. Yet, the bays and the sound are producing this year? That's after several years of very poor inshore fishing.

Is it bait holding the fish in these shallow bays? Maybe they didn't have to leave yet? Or is it water temps? Or is this a sign of things to come?

There's something going on that will take a lot more than a size and bag limit on recreational anglers to fix. Sadly, in the eyes of fisheries managers, it is a commercial fish first, and we will be the first ones totally shut out of it. Don't doubt it, folks.

I recall the days we heard, "We need to raise the size limit to 14 inches..." Here we are decades later, and what was once the number one targeted species in New York for recreational anglers has been taken from us. We will continue to be regulated out of the fishery, and there's not a damn thing we can do about it.

But that's for another thread...

What do you think is causing this shift in fluke behavior, and how do you think it will impact future regulations and the recreational fishing community?

 

[Snapprhead27]

I haven't had much luck in the bay by me. But had good success in Montauk and the sound. I know there has been an abundance of sand eels on the north shore, so maybe that is keeping them there. I fished some of the channels last month near long beach and had steady picks of fish. I'm going out of Captree Friday evening on a private trip. Monday I'll be with Capt. Mike out in Montauk and next Friday back out of East Rockaway. I'll be sure to report back any differences from the last time I was in those areas.

 

[george]

I

I haven't had much luck in the bay by me. But had good success in Montauk and the sound. I know there has been an abundance of sand eels on the north shore, so maybe that is keeping them there. I fished some of the channels last month near long beach and had steady picks of fish. I'm going out of Captree Friday evening on a private trip. Monday I'll be with Capt. Mike out in Montauk and next Friday back out of East Rockaway. I'll be sure to report back any differences from the last time I was in those areas.

I hope you find them in every spot!

 

[Leprechaun]

Over the past few weeks the mid-Island South Shore offshore bite has gone from marginal to near non-existent. What fish we catch are coming up ice cold, and this plus the ubiquitous ling infestation (usually gone by mid-June) would lead one to give credence to the "cold water upwelling" theory that's been making the rounds in my part of the world.

Also unusual, very little in the way of suspended bait over the deep rubble in my area, other than occasional mid-water bait balls, which could be deep bunker- so also not a great fish attractor, for sure.

Will it improve? Who knows? Gotta keep trying, but I will not drag my crew out there again until there's a change for the better. They have better things to do, I'm sure. So for now solo trips it is. Just me and Sports Talk Radio. Good thing I put a new AM/FM radio in the boat this past Spring! I guess we're paying the price and being tested for the excellent deep fishing we've had for the past 15 seasons.

 

[george]

I hate reading that those fish aren't there. That is/was one great fluke spot. I always feel like I have a shot at a DD there. My guess is this is an aberration, but we just don't know for sure. The real stab in the back is the 19.5 limit that goes into effect next week.

At least you're enjoying listing to the Mets beating my Yanks

 

[Chinacat]

I hate reading that those fish aren't there. That is/was one great fluke spot. I always feel like I have a shot at a DD there. My guess is this is an aberration, but we just don't know for sure. The real stab in the back is the 19.5 limit that goes into effect next week.

Whats worse that is thinking about how many guys will be either oblivious or intentionally non compliant with the change to 19-1/2 and fill their boxes with the ones us law abiding folks put back in the water

 

[Leprechaun]

George - Meh, I honestly don't believe either team has a legit shot this year. Oh, and nice Avatar shot you have there. I wonder who snapped that one?

 

[george]

@Snapprhead27 Are you a Met fan too?

 

[george]

George - Meh, I honestly don't believe either team has a legit shot this year. Oh, and nice Avatar shot you have there. I wonder who snapped that one?

That avatar brings back memories of unforgettable trips on your boat. I've had some of my best fluking days with you, my good friend. Fishing, like life, only gets better with time, and the experiences on the Leprechaun are invaluable.

If things don't pick up there soon, you might want to head north and join me in the Sound. Just make sure to bring your "light stuff" because the deepest I'm fishing is 22 feet

 

[Snapprhead27]

@Snapprhead27 Are you a Met fan too?

I am!

 

[Leprechaun]

 

[OVERBORED]

The flip side is my friend who owns a bay house in Merrick bay says the fluking in back is best its ever been. Fish to 25". Water temps in the 60s-70 depending on tide.

 

[Snapprhead27]

GSB earlier today, 14.30 lbs @ 32"

 

[captmike28]

This has surely shaped up to be one of the most unpredictable seasons I can recall. We are headed into August, and there are few, if any, fluke being caught in the traditional grounds—Montauk, North Fork, offshore of Long Island, and just about every offshore piece that anglers hunt. Yet, the bays and the sound are producing this year? That's after several years of very poor inshore fishing.

Is it bait holding the fish in these shallow bays? Maybe they didn't have to leave yet? Or is it water temps? Or is this a sign of things to come?

There's something going on that will take a lot more than a size and bag limit on recreational anglers to fix. Sadly, in the eyes of fisheries managers, it is a commercial fish first, and we will be the first ones totally shut out of it. Don't doubt it, folks.

I recall the days we heard, "We need to raise the size limit to 14 inches..." Here we are decades later, and what was once the number one targeted species in New York for recreational anglers has been taken from us. We will continue to be regulated out of the fishery, and there's not a damn thing we can do about it.

But that's for another thread...

What do you think is causing this shift in fluke behavior, and how do you think it will impact future regulations and the recreational fishing community?

No doubt that the very localized availability of bait in the water impacts most fish and this seems to be part of the answer with Fluking this year.

However, I also believe that there is some weird cold-water undercurrent happening in the ocean and even the eastern Sound. For example, the Whiting I saw spit up by Striped Bass in the Gut in June. In over 60 years fishing in the Sound, I never once saw a Whiting. Cod, yes and maybe the very occasional Ling but never Whiting.

Same thing off Montauk Only Whiting I ever see each summer are on the deep drops near Cartwright in 90-110' of water. Yet the last 2 trips to the south side saw us catching Whiting and Ling in only 65' depths. That is definitely not normal.

Sadly, if my observation regarding the regulatory process continues, we will get whacked even harder next year as the Fisheries Managers will see smaller catches and tell us that Fluke are in trouble. What's the typical "knee jerk rection"? No matter what direction the catch levels go...cut back the recreational quotas! 

 

[george]

GSB earlier today, 14.30 lbs @ 32"

View attachment 82759

That is the fish of a lifetime! I want one!!!!!

I'm amazed at the fish that are coming out of that bay. It has been over a decade since we've seen anything close to this fishing.

 

[OVERBORED]

Im sure it will get better outside. Always does especially when the squid move in but for the last several weeks the bay has been flush with all the small bait a fish could want AND the water temps are right.

Sometimes you have to sort through 30-40 fish to find a keeper but so be it. Its fishing..........small leadhead with local spearing. 8lb test in 4-12ft.

Cant grow'em, you can only catch'em!

 

[hartattack]

The NJ ocean fluke are scarce and short. The last full moon should've brought in another wave of offshore fluke, unfortunately they're small. My friend wrote this fascinating post about why we're now seeing this effect of fishery mismanagement and I agree with his perspective:
" Since 2008 for NJ, NY, Ct and RI, the size minimums other than a few years for a few states have exceeded 18" with NY having the highest size minimums on record in 2009 and 2010 at 21" and RI having the same in 2009. Commercial sector the entire time was targeting larger breeders while killing massive amounts of juvenile fish, the future of the stock. Most don't believe me when I say it but I'd bet, and there's data which has passed peer review to support this statement, commercial dead discard exceeds harvest levels meaning if they harvest 10,000,000 lbs. they kill and discard 10,000,000 lbs. of younger less valuable age group fish in the process. And if you do the math since commercial receives a higher quota than recreational, approximately 75% of the fish killed annually through harvest and discard mortality combined comes from the commercial sector and maybe 25% from the recreational sector. And that's before consideration for the amount of illicit netting which occurs in the commercial sector or the amount of illegal harvest taking place in the recreational sector. Does anyone honestly believe the commercial sector is going to take a 30% quota reduction this year and not attempt to compensate for those lower quotas by harvesting larger higher valued older age class fish to maximize catch values and toss back everything else dead. It's their livelihood, most would do the same to put food on the table, make a living and stay in business.

Management and regulations are supposed to manage the fishery so the fishery is sustainable while a balance exists to accommodate the users of the resource. That's not happening and hasn't been for some time. You simply can't continue killing off the breeding population, killing younger age classes in the process, pounding the stock during the spawn and expect any other results than what we're seeing. Not trying to be overly dramatic but it doesn't take a genius to realize regulations over the last decade and a half have caught up with this fishery and are killing it while the people and bodies responsible for those decisions sit by defending their failed policies.

Policies need to change and in the absence of that happening more of the same will be what we experience going forward. NMFS and the regulatory agencies and states did exactly the same thing with stripers and you can see where that fishery ended leading to the unfortunate regulations we have today. Fluke is headed in the same direction for the same reasons.... "

 

[hartattack]

Additionally:
"
Makes one wonder then about the overall health of the stock locally and cold water theories as to why the fishing has been way off this year. Check out the following link for the 2024 commercial summer flounder quotas by state.

Summer Flounder: Commercial | NOAA Fisheries

www.fisheries.noaa.gov

NJ and NY alone have over 2.1 million lbs. Add NC and Virginia which harvest most of their quotas off our coast in the winter months and add another 4.3 million lbs. Collectively from those four states alone that's 6.4 million lbs or almost 73% of the commercial harvest from NY / NJ waters. Add in another 1.6 million lbs for CT and RI quotas being harvested from the SNE/MA biomass and 90% of commercial quotas are being harvested from the last remaining concentration of the stock in waters off our coast. To put these numbers in perspective, the commercial harvest quota went from 15.3 million lbs. for each year 2022 / 2023 to 8.79 million lbs. in 2024. If that's the haircut commercials took you know this stock is in dire trouble. 2022 / 2023 commercial quotas by state for comparison sake for anyone who doubts these

NOAA Fisheries Approves 2022 and 2023 Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Specifications

2022 and 2023 summer flounder, scup, and black sea bass specifications

www.fisheries.noaa.gov

Massachusettes has a 2024 quota of approximately 600,000 lbs or 1/10th what commercials from the four states mentioned are taking locally off NJ / NY. Now double those numbers for discard mortality and it's no wonder Massachusett's fishery from a relative stand point is in better shape. But it won't be for long as NC and VA boats push further north to fill their quotas each and every year as they deplete the southern most edge of the remaining biomass as they did with the Chesapeake biomass.

Take note of New Hampshire's quota, 40 lbs. Apparently that's not a typo. If management doesn't start managing this stock for the long term sustainability of the fishery, it won't be long before that's every state's annual quota.

 

[OVERBORED]

Commercial harvest for Fluke have been quite restrictive: 70lbs/day in NY 214lb/day in NJ.

That said, Im not so sure these trip limits are being followed.............

 

[hartattack]

1 more:
"
And here's the residual consequences of what's happening in this fishery which will be significant. I don't have current information on the number of registered commercial operators in the Mid Atlantic region but it's significant. If large and jumbo fluke are getting on average $3 / lb. at the docks, the commercial quota just lost almost 7 million lbs in quota in 2024 or $21 million dollars in wholesale catch value. If the price is $5 / lb. make that $35 million in lost revenue.

If you're a commercial boat owner, how do you compensate for that loss in revenue. From the standpoint of the fishery itself, you target large and jumbo fluke even more now with higher wholesale values which is going to further increase discard mortality and remove even more of the larger breeders from the stock. From outside the fishery, what other stocks do they target to compensate for an almost 45% decrease in quota. Winter flounder, that fisheries already been destroyed. Bluefish, they're in a rebuilding state themselves. Whiting or ling, don't think so. Blackfish, good luck with that. Squid, maybe for anyone with a multi species permit. Sea bass, maybe but we all know what's happened with those quotas even as the stocks been more than rebuilt. Porgies, stock has it's own problems. The ripple effect of these asinine short sided outdated regulations will have consequences to every fishery and every small business dependent on those resources."