It's not fuzzy math, as very few anglers kept (or even caught) their 15 fish limit. Therefore, a proportional cut will have little effect on reducing the actual take.
As for guys in suits destroying fishing...stocks collapsing will certainly do that too.
Yeah, the "Population is overfished" really means the population is lower than desired, BUT the reason isn't necessarily overfishing. Could be environmental, diseases, natural predation, etc.
"Overfishing is NOT occurring" means that the amount of fish taken by fishing (commercial and recreational) is within prescribed limits and is not the causative reason for the population being "overfished".
Since fishing usually has the largest impact on a fishery, and how the term "fishing" is used by fisheries management for ALL reductions in the population, it does seem that the 2 statements are mutually exclusive, but in this case it's a question of semantics. Think of Pacific Northwest salmon. The sea lions park themselves by fish ladders and feast on salmon while the fisherman watch in despair. In terms of fisheries management, the population is overfished, but overfishing, by humans, is not occurring.
HOWEVER, expect pain for bluefish because fishing is the only thing fisheries management can control and since the bluefish population is hurting, severe cutbacks will be in the cards, even though the NY commercial catch limit doesn't seem that way. I'm disappointed that it seems that recreational fishers will bear the brunt of the cutbacks. As you mentioned with the exception of snappers, most LI folk will see little practical differences with the new bag limit since blues were few and far between this past season.
What irks me the most is that the For Hire gang gets special dispensation, kind of like being "a little pregnant". Is the For Hire fishery Commercial or Recreational? Yes, their fares are Recreational fisherman, but they're trying to make a living out of running their boat, which sure sounds like a commercial operation to me. Therefore I think their harvest should be taken out of the Commercial quota and not the Recreational one.