The stock market

Got Gold?? up 43% since October 2023

Big indicator here. While markets have done great, the commodity and energy/industrial complex is ripping higher too.

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longcast said:
I did not get on the gold wagon. But have done quite well in the tech and energy sectors.

Chime in - interest rate decrease for June?
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Not so sure, but it is an election year and Powel is getting the pressure.

I guess it really depends on if CPI comes in hot next week for March, plus we have three months of CPI, ISM, etc...until the June meeting.

Oil up WTI at $85, plus supply chain in potential problems in Delaware with the port and now chips in Taiwan with the earthquake,

I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

The conundrum of-course is the huge interest payments on the national debt every three months at these levels if rates are kept up here. The $$ are truly insane.
 
dsedy said:
Not so sure, but it is an election year and Powel is getting the pressure.

I guess it really depends on if CPI comes in hot next week for March, plus we have three months of CPI, ISM, etc...until the June meeting.

Oil up WTI at $85, plus supply chain in potential problems in Delaware with the port and now chips in Taiwan with the earthquake,

I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

The conundrum of-course is the huge interest payments on the national debt every three months at these levels if rates are kept up here. The $$ are truly insane.
Click to expand...
I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

That is why I think they cannot change rates in June. Still too much money on the street. Plus issues in Delaware and more so in Taiwan as you pointed out.

A friend of mine tells me that private equity in certain industries is starting to percolate again. His industry died for a bit. The models he reviewed were showing the interest payments reducing EBITDA to levels that some folks have been afraid to pull the trigger. Although sitting on cash, even at 5% is making folks impatient.

Credit card debt is still growing, meaning folks still spending. 401k drawdowns are going higher and higher each month.

Wait until the tax and in some cases for those under 59 1/2 have to pay the tax and 10% penalty for early withdrawals kick them in the ass in 2025.

Not a pretty picture.



So spending is still at a torrid pace. IF that stops, or hits the wall in the next two months, then I could see a June decrease on rates.
 
longcast said:
I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

That is why I think they cannot change rates in June. Still too much money on the street. Plus issues in Delaware and more so in Taiwan as you pointed out.

A friend of mine tells me that private equity in certain industries is starting to percolate again. His industry died for a bit. The models he reviewed were showing the interest payments reducing EBITDA to levels that some folks have been afraid to pull the trigger. Although sitting on cash, even at 5% is making folks impatient.

Credit card debt is still growing, meaning folks still spending. 401k drawdowns are going higher and higher each month.

Wait until the tax and in some cases for those under 59 1/2 have to pay the tax and 10% penalty for early withdrawals kick them in the ass in 2025.

Not a pretty picture.



So spending is still at a torrid pace. IF that stops, or hits the wall in the next two months, then I could see a June decrease on rates.
Click to expand...
Yes, that's the shoe to drop on the other side: e.g. the consumer/employment. Consumer Discretionary warnings (ULTA, LuLu, PVH etc...) plus the CRE issue and the BTFD put program for regional banks just expired last month.

interesting times
 
See what happens when Biden gets involved with foreign relations and screws it up?

Israel - his phone call
Iran
Oil driving higher

Market gets the jitters.
 
If NFP comes out OK and 5150 holds on SPX might get a bounce tomorrow (how long who knows). Otherwise, 5000 in the next major support level, not much gamma between.
 
www.foxbusiness.com

Average Wall Street bonus dipped to $176,500 last year

Wall Street's average yearly cash bonuses declined by 2% in 2023 to $176,500, down from $180,000 the year before despite an increase in industry profits.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com

I must have missed this one when it first came out.

The total Wall Street bonus pool was $33.8 billion in 2023, largely in line with what was paid out in 2022. It represents a sharp decline from the 25% growth in 2020 ($37.1 billion) and the 15% surge in 2021 ($42.7 billion). - Take note of those years. Remember, represents business.
The comptroller noted that Wall Street bonuses have a significant impact on the budgets of New York City and the state, accounting for 7% and 27.4% of their tax collections, respectively.

Not sure why no discussion of exodus from NYC for these jobs. Empty buildings. Major players reducing footprint by 50%. Florida has become the recipient of most of the security industry transfers - Saving up to 13% in taxes on the same income.

The securities industry employed roughly 198,500 people in New York City last year, up from 191,600 in 2022. DiNapoli estimates that 1 in 11 jobs in the city is either directly or indirectly associated with the sector. - Now I get it. These people are on the payroll, but NOT in NYC. Remote and transfers to other locations still sitting on NYS/NYC payrolls. Skeptical of these numbers.
 
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