The stock market


Stock market today: Nasdaq clobbered, S&P 500 tumbles as AI fears rock Nvidia, tech stocks

The Nasdaq sank on Monday to lead a stock sell-off on Wall Street as a Chinese startup rattled faith in US leadership and profitability in AI, taking a hammer to Nvidia (NVDA) and other Big Tech stocks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sank nearly 3.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped nearly 2%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which is less dependent tech stocks, bucked the trend, rising 0.1%.

Investors started to flock to assets seen as safe as stocks plunged. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell as much as 12 basis points to 4.50%, the lowest level in over a month, while haven currencies including the yen and the Swiss franc surged.

In the background, trade war concerns revived during a face-off between President Donald Trump and Colombia over the weekend. Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on the country's goods in a row over deported migrants before putting the duties on pause after a deal was reached.
 
From Nomura Int Securities this morning


—A potential “Repricing of the Left Tail” in a crowded “AI / MegaCap Tech” market leadership theme sees a substantial bout of Vol reintroduction and consensus narrative rethink to start the week The good news is that there's been some modest rebalancing and rotation out of prior “AI Tech extremes” YTD and since the early Dec market highs I’m not gonna try to play Semi- / AI- expert of the long-term viability and potential AI paradigm shift here… but there are heavy “modern market structure” and mechanical flow implications here for the Stock Market…and the “US Exceptionalism” trade positioning, as “innovation” is a core component to that view …But the larger issue is that Megacap Tech IS the US Equities Market, and anybody with a mandate to own Equities is by default stuffed on these names in order to survive recent years, where Mag8 are 35% of SPX and 49% of NDX index weights, respectively Additionally, we've seen substantial "Spot Up, Vol Up" Upside chasing into Calls (e.g. 95%ile + Call Skews across Semi names) and general demand for Calls in MegaCap Tech / AI names recently again in recent weeks…which can then now “collapse under the weight of their own Delta” on the Spot pullbacks And when you add-in the massive allocation that these "Tech Animal Spirits" =-names and “concentric themes” hold within Leveraged ETF product universe at record AUM , there is a potential monster "de-risking" flow today as 1) Options see Calls go out of the money and Dealers adjust hedges / Puts are bought with chunky NEGATIVE $Delta flow...and as 2) Leveraged ETF's will sell huge $notional to rebalance the products vs these single-name moves (we estimate using pre-mkt prices at -$22B)…which will inherently then “feedback” with Discretionary risk-management and potential front-running of those flows Additionally, today’s ref 1d move will see Vol Control need to SELL again currently est of ~-$15B implied futures That said on to go-forwards…testing “Prior 1d NDX Shocks after an extended prior period of “No Shock” “sees a NDX rally-back on the medium-term, with 2m the best excess hit, while general median returns all trade nicely higher into longer-term….but kinda ‘inline’ / flat to down excess return in 6m / 12m buckets, so nothing all that sexy as far as “vicious snapback rally” hopes go… · An Equities scare originating from a potential paradigm shift of assumptions within the multi-year US Market leadership “AI / MegaCap Tech” theme and is spiraling into a meaningful “risk-off” cross-asset move, hitting Crypto, violently squeezing Equities Index iVol AND US Treasuries, where a gap lower in Yields is then too dragging US Dollar lower after initially having earlier seen a FTQ bid… because after-all, “Tech Innovation” is a massive part of the crowded “US Exceptionalism” –trade thesis · DeepSeek R1 self-learning AI model is acting as a potential shock disruption-agent (already now the most downloaded app across platforms now in recent days), and endangering the “concentric circles of Tech” status quo asset performance leadership (NVDA -11.5% premkt US Eq / AVGO -12.0%, SMH -7.0%, Bitcoin -5.0%)--where the sudden introduction of such a cheap-yet-completely viable AI tool which is self-guiding its own training and built via reinforcement learning without standard controls i.e. MAGNITUDES lower operational cost not requiring the massive semiconductor spend of the newest and most expensive chips, yet showing functionality there with OpenAI et al on its LLM chops, particularly with elite Math and Coding output)— ( is threatening the prior assumptions on the AI ecosystem, with massive implications on Pricing Power, CAPEX / Spending trends and market Valuations of the current hierarchy of leadership in the space · The secular escalatory shock here is the potential that DeepSeek’s “autonomous reasoning” model— again, without the standard “training” controls of human demonstration or super fine tuning critically then not requiring the prior assumptions of computational firepower, capital / cost and time that “training” necessitates—is taking a large leap in pushing us closer towards recursive self-improving AI (AGI)… · In the meantime, those “concentric circles of Tech” I’ve discussed i.e. AI / MegaCap Tech public Equities (and also, investments in high-valuation Private Cos in the space as well) PLUS Crypto –co-ownership–overlapping as massive weath creation vehicles in Markets in recent years —are now getting hot under the collar, particularly where the issue of “Lack of Breadth” in Stocks from such a prolonged period of leadership via a small group of Companies can now pose an outright stability risk on multiple fronts (1. huge MegaCap Tech Co. weightings = problems on Eq Index level thanks to crowded single-name ownership amongst instititions and retail, 2. potential issues for Dispersion / Correlation –traders, and down the road should 3. knock-into marks on “vol laundering” Private investments in the AI space) · AI / MegaCap Tech / Mag7-8 has become “THE” US Stock Market from an Index Return Attribution -perspective, which forced ANYBODY with a Global Equities mandate to need to chase and try to over-own these Exposures IF you were going to try to beat—or simply keep pace--with benchmarks …i.e. existential career-risk if you didn’t own this theme… so THIS is where we need to watch the risk of actual LONG-TERM reallocation / rebalancing flows in Mega Cap Tech in particular…especially with EPS pressure, USD / FX pressures…
 
dsedy said:
From Nomura Int Securities this morning


—A potential “Repricing of the Left Tail” in a crowded “AI / MegaCap Tech” market leadership theme sees a substantial bout of Vol reintroduction and consensus narrative rethink to start the week The good news is that there's been some modest rebalancing and rotation out of prior “AI Tech extremes” YTD and since the early Dec market highs I’m not gonna try to play Semi- / AI- expert of the long-term viability and potential AI paradigm shift here… but there are heavy “modern market structure” and mechanical flow implications here for the Stock Market…and the “US Exceptionalism” trade positioning, as “innovation” is a core component to that view …But the larger issue is that Megacap Tech IS the US Equities Market, and anybody with a mandate to own Equities is by default stuffed on these names in order to survive recent years, where Mag8 are 35% of SPX and 49% of NDX index weights, respectively Additionally, we've seen substantial "Spot Up, Vol Up" Upside chasing into Calls (e.g. 95%ile + Call Skews across Semi names) and general demand for Calls in MegaCap Tech / AI names recently again in recent weeks…which can then now “collapse under the weight of their own Delta” on the Spot pullbacks And when you add-in the massive allocation that these "Tech Animal Spirits" =-names and “concentric themes” hold within Leveraged ETF product universe at record AUM , there is a potential monster "de-risking" flow today as 1) Options see Calls go out of the money and Dealers adjust hedges / Puts are bought with chunky NEGATIVE $Delta flow...and as 2) Leveraged ETF's will sell huge $notional to rebalance the products vs these single-name moves (we estimate using pre-mkt prices at -$22B)…which will inherently then “feedback” with Discretionary risk-management and potential front-running of those flows Additionally, today’s ref 1d move will see Vol Control need to SELL again currently est of ~-$15B implied futures That said on to go-forwards…testing “Prior 1d NDX Shocks after an extended prior period of “No Shock” “sees a NDX rally-back on the medium-term, with 2m the best excess hit, while general median returns all trade nicely higher into longer-term….but kinda ‘inline’ / flat to down excess return in 6m / 12m buckets, so nothing all that sexy as far as “vicious snapback rally” hopes go… · An Equities scare originating from a potential paradigm shift of assumptions within the multi-year US Market leadership “AI / MegaCap Tech” theme and is spiraling into a meaningful “risk-off” cross-asset move, hitting Crypto, violently squeezing Equities Index iVol AND US Treasuries, where a gap lower in Yields is then too dragging US Dollar lower after initially having earlier seen a FTQ bid… because after-all, “Tech Innovation” is a massive part of the crowded “US Exceptionalism” –trade thesis · DeepSeek R1 self-learning AI model is acting as a potential shock disruption-agent (already now the most downloaded app across platforms now in recent days), and endangering the “concentric circles of Tech” status quo asset performance leadership (NVDA -11.5% premkt US Eq / AVGO -12.0%, SMH -7.0%, Bitcoin -5.0%)--where the sudden introduction of such a cheap-yet-completely viable AI tool which is self-guiding its own training and built via reinforcement learning without standard controls i.e. MAGNITUDES lower operational cost not requiring the massive semiconductor spend of the newest and most expensive chips, yet showing functionality there with OpenAI et al on its LLM chops, particularly with elite Math and Coding output)— ( is threatening the prior assumptions on the AI ecosystem, with massive implications on Pricing Power, CAPEX / Spending trends and market Valuations of the current hierarchy of leadership in the space · The secular escalatory shock here is the potential that DeepSeek’s “autonomous reasoning” model— again, without the standard “training” controls of human demonstration or super fine tuning critically then not requiring the prior assumptions of computational firepower, capital / cost and time that “training” necessitates—is taking a large leap in pushing us closer towards recursive self-improving AI (AGI)… · In the meantime, those “concentric circles of Tech” I’ve discussed i.e. AI / MegaCap Tech public Equities (and also, investments in high-valuation Private Cos in the space as well) PLUS Crypto –co-ownership–overlapping as massive weath creation vehicles in Markets in recent years —are now getting hot under the collar, particularly where the issue of “Lack of Breadth” in Stocks from such a prolonged period of leadership via a small group of Companies can now pose an outright stability risk on multiple fronts (1. huge MegaCap Tech Co. weightings = problems on Eq Index level thanks to crowded single-name ownership amongst instititions and retail, 2. potential issues for Dispersion / Correlation –traders, and down the road should 3. knock-into marks on “vol laundering” Private investments in the AI space) · AI / MegaCap Tech / Mag7-8 has become “THE” US Stock Market from an Index Return Attribution -perspective, which forced ANYBODY with a Global Equities mandate to need to chase and try to over-own these Exposures IF you were going to try to beat—or simply keep pace--with benchmarks …i.e. existential career-risk if you didn’t own this theme… so THIS is where we need to watch the risk of actual LONG-TERM reallocation / rebalancing flows in Mega Cap Tech in particular…especially with EPS pressure, USD / FX pressures…
Click to expand...
you expect anyone to read that?

Try some separation of sentences. It reads like Finnegan's Wake
 
Small and mid caps doing well today......WINK WINK

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Trump announced 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico.........AND TANKED THE MARKET!!!

douche!

Coming back a bit now......

APPLE earnings after the BELL.....Will dictate tomorrows action.......last day of the month too......If APPLE blows earnings away.....BIG SCHWING TOMORROW
 
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Trump’s tariffs loom and even his supporters in Texas are nervous​

Trump has vowed punishing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, which are Texas’ biggest international trading partners.

By Matthew Choi and Berenice Garcia
Jan. 30, 20253 hours ago

Mexico is by far Texas’ largest trading partner, followed by Canada with China coming closely behind. Free-trade advocates warn that tariffs on goods will be passed onto consumers — meaning higher prices for Texans. Any positive benefits such as bringing manufacturing back to the country may not appear for years.

“There would undeniably, indisputably be a negative economic impact if tariffs were to be enacted,” said Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Texas Association of Business, a group that supports many of Trump’s other domestic policies.

TUFF LUCK FOR THEM.....VOTED WRONG

Trump’s tariffs loom and even his supporters in Texas are nervous
 
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